With two games between division rivals in the last month, there's not a whole lot of surprises in Patriots-Bills III on Saturday night.
The two coaching staffs, which have enormous continuity in personnel over several years, know the other team like the back of their hands. Personnel, tendencies, scheme ... you name it, the Patriots and Bills know each other intimately.
If you're hoping for a Surprise! They Didn't See That Coming game, you're probably going to be waiting a while.
But the Patriots should feel good about the fact that despite Josh Allen having a career game, and Mac Jones decidedly not, the Patriots were within one score of the Bills twice in the second half. If Allen was so great and unstoppable that game, then how was this game even close? The answer: Allen wasn't great, and the game was more about the Patriots playing poorly (a theme in the last month) than the opponent outclassing them.
So how is this matchup going to be any different?
At least on the Patriots' side, this game is going to come down to doing slightly different things and doing them much, much better.
The things they will have to do, starting with the defense because that's where this game will largely be won or lost:
DEFENSE
1. Rush better and smarter.
The Patriots were a complete and utter disaster when it came to rushing Allen last game. Don't believe pressure percentages over 40 percent ... the Patriots put real pressure on Allen just 20 percent of the time — a pathetic number, really. Most of the time, Allen moved because the Patriots left gaps open for him to move and make a play. The longer the Patriots have to cover, the better it is for Allen and the Bills.
That simply can not happen this time around. The Patriots need to alternate between four- and five-man rushes (put someone like Jamie Collins or Kyle Dugger over the center and either rush controlled or drop back 5 yards and spy. None of the linemen, especially Matthew Judon, can go up the field. The Bills' linemen are great at sensing that and just shoving the rusher further up field.
I've had plenty to say about Judon this week. He has to have a great and disciplined game. He certainly can do that. But the coaches must make sure he is buying in. I have not felt this strongly about a player not playing within the scheme since Malcolm Butler at the end of 2017 — and he wound up being benched for the Super Bowl. Would it shock me if Judon is benched early or during the game? No.
Squeeze pocket on Allen.
2. Be physical at the line.
If Allen doesn't get what he likes right after the snap, he starts to panic and looks to extend the play by escaping the pocket. Re-route receivers, bang the slots and tight ends, and squeeze the pocket around him. Do those two things enough times, you're going to get a chance to swipe the ball from Allen, and pick him off. The Patriots were way too soft and finesse the last time against the receivers. It was like flag football.
3. Hit someone!!
The Patriots treated the 5-yard zone from tackle to tackle like a demilitarized zone. Hey, Isaiah McKenzie, you want to run clear across the field unimpeded? Go right ahead. If any Bills running back wants to just walk to 8 yards and catch a ball, turn around and make a move ... you have an open invitation.
That ends in this game. Anyone entering the 5-yard box on the Patriots' side of the line of scrimmage gets absolutely plastered. No free money. No free passes.
4. Get two turnovers.
Do all of those things and the Patriots can get multiple turnovers. They need them. Patriots are 14-0 the last two seasons when they win the turnover battle.
OFFENSE
1. No turnovers.
No magic formula to this, which is why I don't think the Patriots are suddenly going to turn Mac Jones loose — he's been a bakery with turnovers in the last month. It's going to be cold, that turf is going to be hard. Running is going to be just as hard as throwing the ball. If the Patriots win the turnover battle in this one, they are going to win. That means conservative on offense.
2. Spread to run.
The Bills like to be in tight with their base defense, and the Patriots do have an advantage there. But I would like to see them at least throw a changeup early, spread things out, and either gun run or let Jones dink and dunk to get a lead. Hurry up would be a possibility, but I would doubt it. You can play methodically even if you are spread out.
3. Go big or go home.
Ideally, the Patriots play with the lead or tied for a while. I think the running game will work early, which will cause the Bills to drop a safety into a box — they basically dared Jones to throw on them last time.
The Patriots need to call more aggressive shot plays near midfield or the high red zone. And, more importantly, Jones has to be patient and wait for those. Too often in the last month, Josh McDaniels has dialed up a shot play but Jones has panicked and take the check down. I don't care if you have to max protect on the play to make Jones feel comfortable ... the Patriots must take at least four deep shots in this game to keep the Bills defense a bit loose.
If the Patriots do all these things, they will win on Saturday night.
The ultimate question is, will they?
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Some key takeaways from the last Bills game:
If the Patriots don't rebound, then you have to question all of the new additions and their buy-in. In the Patriots' defensive scheme, you can't be half in. You can't do your job 3 out of 4 plays. You have to do it well all the time. And that is not happening.
Matthew Judon, the crown jewel of the offseason, was absolutely awful and was zero factor on Sunday. It was like he was playing in a different football game, and continued his below-average play over the last four games.
Davon Godchaux should, really, be benched for good. He occasionally makes a play, but I can provide 10 more examples where he's rushing up the field or out of his gap leading to easy plays by the opponent.
Kyle Dugger is great when things are straightforward and he can show off his athletic ability. When he has to make a read or judgment call, like when Isaiah McKenzie ran so close to Dugger on the final drive twice that he could reach out and touch him, and Dugger just did nothing ... he looks no better than a rookie in his first few games.
Christian Barmore, even when he has issues, still has way more good plays than bad, but the Patriots need him to be right 95 percent of the time. It's more like 80 percent.
Dont'a Hightower is fading and fast. He can make plays if they are in a 4-yard box between the guards. Otherwise, you might as well play with 11.
And there are the defensive playcalls, that looked straight out of the Dallas game. Whatever happened after that, it needs to happen again. Like yesterday. The Patriots' coverage calls were so scared and bland for a good portion of the game that it was like they were working off the Madden '96 video game (Steve Belichick was slamming that B button).
This is the list of guys who are doing their job with regularity, like real Patriots:
Kyle Van Noy
Lawrence Guy
Daniel Ekuale (bench Godchaux for him)
Jamie Collins
JC Jackson
Devin McCourty
Adrian Phillips barely misses the cut because he's only great in the robber role, or when he's playing the run against a bad QB.
That's it. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to know what almost all of them have a common.
They've played a lot of games here. They've won a lot of games and titles. And they are true Patriots. The rest are pretenders until they actually do something.
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If another matchup happens, you can be damn sure the Patriots are not going to play defense the same way against Josh Allen and the Bills. It's probably a good thing for the Patriots that it worked out this way. If the weather was fine in Buffalo, this would have happened in the first matchup. The Patriots would have adjusted for the game in Foxboro. That would have left more room for Buffalo and Brian Daboll to counterpunch in the playoffs.
The way things worked out, with the first matchup basically irrelevant, the Patriots will have the big counterpunch in the playoffs.
How will the Patriots likely adjust? We saw some of it as the game went on, but there were some clues earlier in the game with some things that nearly worked.
1. Better personnel choices.
Coming into this game, the Patriots deactivated DBs Shaun Wade, Joejuan Williams and Joshuah Bledsoe. That was the first mistake in this game. Not enough defensive back options and way too much reliance on defensive linemen. Who the hell cares if the Bills rush for a lot of yards? Expect the Patriots to encourage this the next time around by going very light in terms of their personnel.
By the fourth quarter, the Patriots realized that Dont'a Hightower was luggage in this matchup and they, finally, went to more big dime with Ja'Whaun Bentley as the lone linebacker, two linemen, Matthew Judon and Kyle Van Noy. They had the three safeties and three cornerbacks. More of this, please.
Can't believe I'm saying this, but I think the Patriots missed Deatrich Wise in this game. Wise has always been an asset in pass games; his big-time issues come against teams that want to run (Colts). His bull rush on an end could be issues for Allen and the Bills' line.
If I'm the Patriots, this is the personnel I'm starting with against the Bills, along with the subs:
DE Matthew Judon/Josh Uche
DT Lawrence Guy/Daniel Ekuale
DT Christian Barmore/Deatrich Wise
DE Kyle Van Noy/Dont'a Hightower
LB Jamie Collins/Ja'Whaun Bentley
LB Kyle Dugger/Joshuah Bledsoe
SS Adrian Phillips
FS Devin McCourty
CB JC Jackson
CB Jalen Mills
CB Myles Bryant/Shaun Wade
Hightower was a liability. Every time he was in coverage, he was way too deep and the Bills just checked it down in front of him for easy yards. He could only be a short-yardage option in this game.
I would play a lot of two high safeties with McCourty and Bryant as the free safeties. That would take the LB off the field and put Phillips or Dugger at MLB in passing situations.
3. Hit people, often.