Through the first 13 games of the season, Matthew Judon was one of Bill Belichick's best acquisitions ever — even at $13.6 million per year.
After the first Bills matchup, not only were the Patriots rolling at 9-4 and No. 1 seed in the AFC, but Judon was dominating and making the case to be the NFL's Defensive Player of Year. According to our stats, Judon had 12 sacks, 13 additional hits and 18.5 hurries — 43.5 total QB pressures. He added another 9.5 stuffed runs.
Judon was an elite player. The Patriots' defense was the key to the team.
But since that time, Judon has done a vanishing act — and arguably been a liability at times — and the Patriots' defense is more of a question mark than ever as the team dropped 3 of 4 to finish the regular season.
Now, as the team heads to Buffalo as an underdog in Saturday night's wild-card game, the question remains: can this team do anything if Judon doesn't return to his former form?
If Sunday's loss was any indication, Judon making a 180 in terms of his play is a longshot. It might have been rock bottom in his Patriots tenure.
Not only was Judon benched for the final three plays of the first half against the Dolphins — after his mindless roughing the passer penalty gave the Dolphins hope to put up more points leading 17-7 — but Judon was also benched for several plays after his first play of the second half, when he failed to set the edge properly on a 27-yard run. And then, with the game on the line, Judon ran right by Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa on 3rd and 8 and allowed the QB to scramble for the game-clinching first down.
The Patriots are paying $13.5 million for a player that can't do his job and stay on the field?
Judon's fall has been swift. He went from averaging nearly a sack a game and 3.4 QB pressure in the first 13, to 0.13 sacks and 1.13 pressures — and his interest and ability to defend the run has also taken a tumble.
BSJ's season totals for Matthew Judon. The two right columns are Bedard's plus/minus plays for each game.
Some have pointed to the rib injury he sustained in Buffalo as the start of his downfall, but Judon downplayed the injury to reporters on Wednesday. You could also make the argument that his shoddy overall play dates back to the Titans game. Prior to that, he had 63 plus plays in our grading, and just 15 negative plays. In the last six, it's been a 13/21 split.
Linebackers coach Steve Belichick was asked about Judon and, predictably, offered nothing but kudos.
"Yeah, there's something to be said for what happens on paper," Belichick said when asked about Judon's declining production. "I'd say the biggest thing is, did you get the win or the loss?
"I have no issues with Judon right now. Things have been going good, just like they have all year. Since he got here in the spring, it's been great to work with him, so I don't look too much into that stuff. I don't really have anything to speak on the production but I will speak on the fact that Matt's done a great job all year for us. He continues to come in ready to work, ready to do anything we ask of him. He's a team player. He puts the team first, and I know all of us appreciate him doing that. Happy he's on our team. He continues to make plays for us whether they show up on the stat sheet or not."
The Patriots are 1-3 in their last three games as Judon's production has definitely slipped, whether Belichick wants to acknowledge it or not.
Judon appeared to have another huge error that had to do with effort or buy-in early in the second quarter. On third and 5, Judon went to the flat with Albert Wilson, as he should have. But after the snap and the ball was handed off to Duke Johnson, Judon never turned around. While Johnson was running over left end for 10 yards virtually untouched, Judon was tackling Johnson well away from the play.
This is not the first time over the last month when Judon has been seen getting overly physical with an opponent who isn't even in the play. Judon looks to be a player almost frustrated in being asked to cover or defend players away from the ball instead of just teeing off on the QB.
I asked former Patriots linebacker Ted Johnson to look at this play, since he's an expert on this scheme, and he concurred.
"When the Dolphins motion from 3x1 to 2x2 (set) it forces Judon to leave the box to reroute and get closer to his coverage," Johnson said. "That should trigger a call to (Daniel Ekulae) to widen out and replace him as the force guy. He never moved and, in fact, he stunted inside creating a massive hole for poor Adrian Phillips to try and fill.
"Judon should have extended out enough to reroute the #2 receiver but still be able to fold back in vs run to him. He locks in on the motion man as if he has him man to man and then as the play starts, doesn’t even look to see where the play is going. He did to #2 what he’s been doing a lot lately, which is get frustrated, lose his cool and attack the closest player to him. You can tell he’s frustrated with his play lately because once a game I’ll see him go after a guy for no reason."
Judon again showed his frustration throwing Tagovailoa to the turf with 26 seconds and the ball on the Miami 32. The penalty gave the Dolphins the ball near midfield.
You would have thought Judon would come out in the second half and play more composed. That was not the case. On his very first play, Judon was easily handled by Dolphins TE Durham Smythe, who out of 85 NFL TEs who have played at least 20% of his team's snaps, ranks 70th with a 50.6 run-blocking grade according to PFF (Jonnu Smith is No. 85 BTW). Judon allowed himself to be pinned inside, and Johnson easily ran for 27 yards. Judon was benched for the next seven snaps.
We all know what happened on the Tagovailoa's final scramble.
In the three losses to finish the season, Judon has six plus plays, according to our grading. He has 14 negative plays for a net of minus-7. In the first 12 games, he had a net of +47.
Anything could be going on with Judon. He could be hurt or tired during this lengthy season with a late bye week. He could have grown frustrated with his role in the biggest games down the stretch because he would prefer to rack up pass-rushing stats. He could have a personal issue that is distracting him on the field.
Really, it could be anything and it really doesn't matter what the cause is.
The only thing that matters for these Patriots is that Judon puts it behind him and produces like he did in the first 13 games of the season on Saturday night. That Judon and Patriots defense can win the game for New England on Saturday night. If he plays like he did over the last month, the Patriots and Judon will have an early offseason.
Here are the positional ratings against the Dolphins:
OFFENSE
Quarterback (1 out of 5)
You can't turn the ball over like Jones did — on his first pass attempt; the 22-yard line of the Dolphins — and play successful QB late in an NFL season. Jones had some nice throws in this game (six plus plays), but his eight minus plays dragged him down. Jones is increasingly showing dubious decision-making with six of the questionable variety in this one. He played well later when the Dolphins went to more soft zone, yet he made nice man throws to Jakobi Meyers and Hunter Henry. Jones looks a bit physically and emotionally drained.
Running backs (5 out of 5)
Great game by all involved, especially Brandon Bolden. ... Maybe it was a good thing Rhamondre Stevenson got dinged up (by the way, he looked seriously concussed and it was a surprise he was cleared to return) because he looks like he is ready to have a monster game. Maybe surprise the Bills a little bit.
Receivers (2.5 out of 5)
Henry was good in the pass game — and even had one great blitz pick up (never seen him do that before) — but Henry was not great with more blocking responsibilities, with Jonnu Smith limited by either gameplan or injury. Smith looks like his role has been reduced. Patriots may go with more 3 and 4 WRs from here on out. ... Kendrick Bourne needs more touches but he is not helping himself running two wrong routes. That's why his role was limited earlier in the season as well. ... Meyers is a zone master.
Offensive line (4 out of 5)
Barely allowed any pressure and the run blocking was very good. ... Shaq Mason had an off game for him, and Mike Onwenu is not exactly grabbing his playing time opportunities. Order of effectiveness: Karras, Andrews, Brown, Wynn, Mason, Onwenu.
DEFENSE
Defensive line (1 out of 5)
Just an atrocious game from this group. Nobody is generating any pressure (13.8%) and a 5% run stuff percentage is pathetic. They just constantly get handled up front by even average offensive lines. They seem to only play well against bad offensive lines. We already covered Judon, but Ekuale, Deatrich Wise and Davon Godchaux were all bad in this game. The middle of the Patriots' defensive line has about the strength of baby food at this point. The Dolphins, with that line and those has-been backs, did whatever they wanted to. Patriots aren't even trying to blitz anymore either.
Linebackers (3.5 out of 5)
A surprisingly strong showing from this group, especially Jamie Collins. He'd be about the only linebacker I'd put up against the Bills at this point. ... Ja'Whaun Bentley had 17 tackles, but only two were impactful. ... With Judon MIA, Kyle Van Noy is the only reliable pass rusher at this point, especially if Christian Barmore is beat up.
Secondary (2 out of 5)
A few nice plays out of this group, but everyone had issues. Adrian Phillips gave up the edge on a TD run, JC Jackson allowed a TD pass. Jalen Mills' legit PI led to a TD. Devin McCourty dropped an INT. This was all against Tua, who is scared of his own shadow.
FOUR UP
Brandon Bolden: Most consistent playmaker in this game with two TDs. Who would have thought that in the first couple weeks of the season.
Jamie Collins: The one guy on defense who appeared interested in this game.
Jakobi Meyers: Just steady, especially against zone coverage.
Ted Karras: It seems they're toying with replacing him with Onwenu, but it's hard to make that case.
THREE DOWN
Mac Jones: He's regressing by the week in the biggest games. This team can't afford ANY turnovers.
Matthew Judon: I think we've covered this.
Davon Godchaux: Better hope he has another game like he did in Buffalo last time, because he has largely been owned otherwise.