In previous weeks, we've had some questions about the Patriots entering next season, from the left side of the Patriots' line and some of the fits for some young players, to keeping QB options open and whether the Patriots have enough in the passing game.
This week, it's time to look on the bright side of football life and delve into what we feel reasonably confident about when it comes to this year's Patriots squad with an assist from Aaron Schatz and the fellas at FootballOutsiders.com, where their annual must-read — the FO Alamanac 2021 — is out and available for purchase.
Five areas of strength for the 2021 Patriots:
1. This defense is going to be really good.
This isn't breaking news or anything, especially once Stephon Gilmore's status is secure to lock down the thin secondary, but FO's most significant takeaway on the Patriots brought it home:
There’s very little doubt that the 2021 Patriots will be significantly more talented than their 2020 counterparts. In this chapter last year, we ran a table of the most net AV (Average Value) over replacement lost on defense in a single season. The 2020 Patriots topped that table, and accordingly saw their defensive DVOA go (down) from -25.2% to 7.9%. This year, we can run the opposite table and, as you might expect, the 2021 Patriots will add more net AV to their defense than any team in recent history.
The only comparable teams in recent years were the 2009 Lions, '15 Jets and '05 Chiefs. And they all got significantly better.
There were some individual notes as well that stood out:
- Lawrence Guy is one of six players to have at least 35 run stops in each of the past four years, and the other five guys are all rangy linebackers, not linemen.
- Henry Anderson becomes the Patriots’ top run defender; he was third in ESPN’s run stop win rate among defensive tackles in 2020. (This one really surprised me. I knew Anderson was a good run player, but I didn't know he was this good.)
- Davon Godchaux's 45 run stops in 2019, his last healthy season, led all defensive tackles.
- Patriots might even be the perfect place for Jalen Mills. Tell me this doesn't sound like Patrick Chung: "Mills routinely finished below a 50% success rate as a corner, even when he was healthy, so the Eagles tried him as a strong safety/slot corner hybrid instead. So far, so good; Mills played all over the defense last season and had much better numbers handling slot receivers and tight ends than he ever did on the boundaries."
2. Not sure how teams are going to run on the Patriots.
This year, the Patriots will face several teams that need their running game to set up the passing game, including the Jets, Dolphins, Saints, Cowboys, Panthers, Browns, Titans, Colts and Jaguars. And they will likely try to run into a box that features Guy, Godchaux, Anderson, Dont'a Hightower, Kyle Van Noy, Matthew Judon and either Josh Uche, Adrian Phillips or Kyle Dugger.
I mean, good luck with that.
The Patriots were, by far, the worst rush defense in the league by DVOA (FO's metric that compares each play to the average around the league). The Bucs, Saints and Rams were 1-2-3 in best run defenses last year. The first was Super Bowl champion, and the next two were 1 and 2 in weighted (prioritizing later season games) DVOA.
Run defense matters. It can serve as the backbone of a very successful team, if you get efficient quarterback play. And even last year's group showed that if the Patriots can get the opponent to third down, they're going to be successful: "The Patriots ranked No. 1 in pass defense on third downs. In every other down/play combination, the Patriots ranked 27th or worse." Stop the run, get the opponent into long yardage and advantage New England.
3. The offensive line should control games — if Isaiah Wynn can stay healthy.
I knew the Patriots' left tackle was good, but this from FO stood out: "Wynn has only managed to play 18 of 48 regular-season games since he was drafted, but he has been very good when actually on the field; a major bully in run blocking who can hold his own in pass protection as well. He was missed."
Wynn has certainly had durability issues, but I don't think he gets the respect he deserves. Of course, the counterargument would be, "The injury issues are exactly WHY you don't draft an undersized left tackle." That's fair. And if Trent Brown is at least 75 percent of his former Patriots self, it's difficult to see how the Patriots don't win on every down up front. Wynn, Mike Onwenu (potentially one of Belichick's biggest draft coups ever), David Andrews, Shaq Mason and Brown should be a great group.
4. The schedule should be used in your 2021 calculations.
According to FO, the Patriots have the easiest schedule in the NFL next season. Unfortunately for them, the Bills have the fourth easiest schedule despite playing a first-place slate. But the Bills' schedule is front-loaded, so that could be helpful if the Patriots can come together quickly.
FO has the Patriots just 11th in total DVOA, which means they think the schedule is going to help a lot.
5. Patriots should contend again.
When it comes to FO's full projections, they have the Patriots fifth in the NFL with 9.8 average wins, behind Tampa (11.1), Baltimore (10.6), Kansas City (10.5) and Buffalo (10.2). With so much competition in the AFC, the Patriots have just a 9.9 percent chance of making the Super Bowl and 4.8 percent chance of winning it.
Patriots are projected to finish 20th in offensive DVOA, 5th in defense and 1st in special teams:
Our projections have the Patriots rebounding to be an above-average
team, led by a very good defense. They’re in playoff position,
thanks in part to a particularly easy schedule. They’re not likely to really compete with the Bills for the division crown, but
our models predict a return to respectability. And, of course, if Mac Jones ends up as a massive hit, and the below-average offensive projection ends up underselling New England’s potential,
then we’re talking about a team right back in contention after
just one season. There’s upside here.
NICKEL PACKAGE
1. I have no doubt Tom Brady has played through an MCL issue ... for a couple of years. Our own Dr. Jessica Flynn has been raising issues about his knee stability going back to 2018. So what Brady did last season was not any different than what he had done previously in New England. Look, the guy is an alien. We all know this. He is not typical in any way. But I doubt Brady would consider himself heroic — I don't think he needed injections or anything. Several QBs, including Aaron Rodgers and Philip Rivers, have played the position without ACLs. Instead of saying this was heroic, I'd say this is another story to illustrate how Brady isn't a normal athlete, which we all knew.
2. Always interesting to hear the Packers' financials when they come out around the annual shareholders' meeting, since they're the only team that has to make anything public. Yes, Covid had an impact as the Packers lost $38.8 million in the last fiscal year. The last time the Packers lost money was 2003. The Packers' local revenue, which is significant with all that Lambeau Field offers, went from $210.9 million to just $61.8 million.
3. Your weekly dose of Chase Winovich's love affair with New Hampshire:
4. It was not a good showing overall for the Patriots in ESPN's annual top 10 positional rankings (that's what happens when you're 7-9), but one position stood in particular as Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith came in 7th and 9th at tight end, respectively. For $25 million combined annually, shouldn't they be closer to Top 5? T.J. Hockenson and Dallas Goedert finished ahead of Henry, and stone-handed Evan Engram was one spot in front of Smith. The Patriots' duo better finish higher than that, and I think they will given decent QB play.
5. I laughed out loud at this line from FO's Bryan Knowles in the Patriots' chapter: "The Patriots are one of the league’s least-penalized teams every year that they do not employ Brandon Browner. Last season, they had a league-low 72 penalties for only 534 yards. All other teams were above 80 penalties and 600 yards."