When it comes to the Patriots, we pretty much know which guys are under the gun. Cam Newton leads the list of players who must produce early to hang onto their jobs. We also know all the high-priced free agents need to deliver.
But there are other key players who have big questions surrounding them. Isaiah Wynn, JC Jackson, Damien Harris, Kyle Dugger and Dalton Keene are all good players, or at least are thought to have talent, and capable of a high level of performance in this key season. But there are some x-factors when it comes to how effective they could be. Let's look at those...
Can Isaiah Wynn be effective without Joe Thuney?
When healthy, Wynn is at least a good, solid left tackle. That's nothing to sneeze at. Several teams would be thrilled with that kind of play. The Patriots are certainly banking on Wynn being better than solid considering they already guaranteed his fifth-year option in 2022 to the tune of $10.413 million. He should get to that level, but there's little question this season will be much different for Wynn. Why? Well, he's not going to have Joe Thuney on his right side.
That's not insignificant. Thuney was the best pound-for-pound Patriots lineman going on several seasons. He was a master at cleaning up messes on the line. David Andrews is also good at it, but no one was as good as Thuney. Whatever Wynn achieved in his first three seasons, Thuney played a big part of it. Thuney was also excellent at helping to pick up pressures — he often saw them a step or two ahead.
But Thuney is now in Kansas City. Mike Onwenu had a great rookie season and has a very bright future, but he lacks Thuney experience. It will be interesting to see if Thuney's absence is felt, at least early in the season.
Is JC Jackson really headed for elite status?
It's been said so many times that it's almost gospel: JC Jackson is the Patriots' next elite cornerback. But is that really true? He's been a good player and he seems to be going places, but his advanced stats aren't exactly popping off the page outside of interceptions, which are often more luck and team play than individual effort.
Jackson's coverage stat from PFF has declined ever so slightly every year. He gave up a career-high 54.7 percent, 14.2 yards per reception and five touchdowns last season. And that's when Stephon Gilmore wasn't at his best, so teams weren't totally scared off and picking on Jackson. If Gilmore isn't healthy or doesn't get a pay bump, the jury is out, for now, on whether or not Jackson can shut people down.
Will Damien Harris be a playmaker?
Similar to Wynn, when Harris has been on the field, he's been good for the Patriots. But that has been few and far between. He missed the first three games last year, and the last four. In between, he only played 40 percent of the snaps just four times. The Patriots had options to be sure, but if the team views you as a playmaker on a talent-challenged team like the 2020 Patriots, then you'd see the field a lot.
Look, I know internally the Patriots love Harris and I just want him to get fed every game. But it's one thing to be a fantasy football darling heading into the season, and actually doing it. Harris should get plenty of chances this year with Sony Michel in a walk year, and Rex Burkhead elsewhere.
What style of fullback do the Patriots want and what does that mean for Dalton Keene?
When the Patriots traded up for Dalton Keene in 2020, there was a distinct plan to move the fullback position post-James Develin to a more athletic/matchup position in the Kyle Juszczyk mold. A year later, does that still hold true? That sort of the million-dollar question when it comes to Keene's place on this team.
The Patriots have Jakob Johnson as the traditional sledgehammer FB. They signed two TEs and have another, Devin Asiasi, who is better pass catcher than Keene. With the need to get Nelson Agholor, Kendrick Bourne, Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith on the field with a pass-catching back, how many snaps are there for another FB? Would an athletic FB really be a good fit for this scheme with the drastic changes in personnel from last season? I still think Keene has value on as an all-around football player and special teams hero a la Jim "Crash" Jensen, but is there room for that on this roster? It's a big question.
How does Kyle Dugger get enough playing time?
Everyone knows I love me some Kyle Dugger and I think it's a matter of when, not if, he'll be a star on defense. But the Patriots still have Adrian Phillips in addition to Devin McCourty — never mind Jalen Mills. Dugger will be a huge asset as a sub-package linebacker, but is that enough snaps for Dugger? Will Belichick hold back a veteran player like Phillips to give Dugger the time needed on the field to develop? Will Belichick be OK with the growing pains? The feeling here is to Let Duggs Play, warts and all. Nobody got better watching football.
NICKEL PACKAGE
1. Stephon Gilmore playing nice in his first public contract comments and the fact that the Patriots haven't given themselves an alternative at corner should tell everyone that there will be a resolution to this at some point, but it will likely take Gilmore reporting to camp and showing he's healthy. If Belichick wouldn't give Brady what he wanted in his later years, why would he give it to Gilmore coming off quad surgery.
2. No, I don't think this signals a sea change in the Patriots' culture — but I think it's a byproduct of spending in free agency. Gilmore is now way behind Matthew Judon, Smith, Henry, Agholor, Trent Brown and Davon Gaudchaux in contract pecking order. You knew that wasn't going to stand. If the Patriots didn't have to sign talent, Gilmore would only trail Devin McCourty and Dont'a Hightower. Gilmore would not have a problem with that, but that's what happens when you bring in players from the outside.
3. Just disappointed in N'Keal Harry. Despite what others tell you, he had a chance to compete for time in camp, and he punted. Bad advice. He can still be a player. The circumstances his first two seasons were not good for anybody.
4. The deadline to work out extensions with franchise players is July 15th. We should have a good idea of the free agency class of 2022 fairly soon.
5. Interesting that veteran scribe John McClain of the Houston Chronicle thinks that once his legal problems are behind him, that the Texans will trade Deshaun Watson, perhaps at the trade deadline.