NFL Notebook: Belichick's Worry List has to start with staying open to QB options

My first year covering the NFL on a full-time basis was in 2004 when I was on the Dolphins' beat for the Palm Beach Post.

Oh yes, the glorious final stand of Dave Wannstedt.

Those first couple of years, I had the great fortune of working side by side with Joe Schad, who went on to cover college football for ESPN and is now currently at the Post covering the Dolphins. Joe was probably the best beat writer I've ever seen — he was absolutely relentless in how he covered a team, and I learned a ton from him.

One of things he used to do, which shocked me for the genius and also simplicity, was to compile a Worry List he kept on his wall. It was, simply, a list of stories/topics that he worried his competitors would break instead of him, and it would keep him up nights. It was a really smart way to not forget about important storylines that maybe slip your mind due to the day-in, day-out nature of the beat.

That got me thinking during this slower time on the NFL world (hope everyone is enjoying Boca Grande, Lake Burton and Nantucket) ... if Bill Belichick had a Worry List for the 2021 season, what would be on it and in what order?

Do I need another option at quarterback?

I don't care how much they love Mac Jones in the building — and they do love him — he's still a slightly built rookie with a decent/adequate arm. Could he/will he go out there and win games with a good team around him? Absolutely. And that's likely the track we'll see at some point this season.

But in a perfect QB/team world — granted the Patriots do not have that, I get it — wouldn't the best option for Jones to sit for a year and get stronger? Would Tom Brady have been that good in 2001 if he had to play right away in 2000? Aaron Rodgers definitely needed to sit for three years in Green Bay.

Here's the thing, and there's really other way to get around it. Every other successful rookie QB that played early in recent years, had some sort of plus physical skill to rely on and get them out of tight spots. Be it Justin Herbert, Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold or Andrew Luck with their arms, or Kyler Murray, Daniel Jones, Carson Wentz, Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson, Ryan Tannehill with their legs, they all had some superpower to rely on. (Of course, none of them really won anything as rookies, and that's in part due to the fact that good rookie QBs usually go to bad teams...)

Of those that didn't ...Jameis Winston, Teddy Bridgewater and Tua Tagovailoa stand out, and they haven't been all that successful yet.

Jones' best asset is his mind, and that could certainly be enough to win games as a rookie. But it sure would be nice to have something else he can go to in a big spot. You could make the argument Joe Burrow is/was similar to Jones and proved it can work, but Jones was a year older at draft time, slightly taller and his arm was better.

Basically, I think it would be best — all things being equal — for Jones to take a physical redshirt year, similar to Brady, and be just a little more durable and have a slightly better arm in Year 2 after a year to do that.

Of course, the Patriots, unless Cam Newton flips a switch to fix his mechanics and be able to operate the entire Patriots passing offense, likely won't have that luxury.

But what if another option comes along? I think Belichick would be hard-pressed not to take another run at it. What's the other possible option? You guessed it ...

What happens with Jimmy G if Lance is named 49ers' starter?

Hey, it's not my story, it's from plugged-in veteran 49ers scribe Matt Maiocco of NBC Sports Bay Area. 

If Lance wins the job at the beginning of the season, it could lead to an eventful two weeks after the team’s final preseason game on Sunday, Aug. 29. The 49ers’ regular-season opener is Sunday, Sept. 12, at the Detroit Lions. ...

It is within the realm of possibility that Lance wins the job. Then, the 49ers would almost assuredly want Garoppolo to remain in Santa Clara ... but only at the right price. ... 

Barring a significant injury in training camp, it seems unlikely the 49ers would be able to trade Garoppolo if Lance takes over as the starter. It also seems unlikely another team would be willing to pay Garoppolo his scheduled pay for 2021 if he becomes available in early September.

After all, Garoppolo would not be able to go anywhere else as a starter. And with an unproven rookie quarterback, knowledge of the system, familiarity with the locker room and a strong supporting cast, Garoppolo would have a better chance to make a contribution as a backup with the 49ers than with any other team.

Whoa, whoa, whoa Matty ... have you forgotten about a little team in Foxborough?

Doubt the Patriots would pay him his full boat, but if Belichick doesn't love his QB options, and Lance wins the job in San Francisco, Garoppolo could come in here and be ready to start in two weeks or less.

It just so happens the final preseason game is Aug. 29. The first game of the season is Sept. 12th. For the record, the 49ers' second of three preseason games is Aug. 22. The 49ers would need to decide right around that time on their QB situation internally (externally, I'm sure they'll keep everyone guessing while Garoppolo is on the roster).

Let's play this out ... say Newton does not light the world on fire in camp. Let's also say that Jones is solid but unspectacular in camp as well — which is what he was in the offseason practices. Belichick and Josh McDaniels could obviously say, 'We have a good defense, or offensive line is great and we'll be run/tight end focused ... Newton and/or Jones will be good enough.'

But in this scenario, with Lance winning the job in San Francisco and Garoppolo making $25 million (highest backup salary in the league is Case Keenum at $6 million and the 49ers have to start giving extensions to Fred Warner, Nick Bosa, etc), doesn't Belichick have to consider a possible deal for Garoppolo? What better way to face Brady in Week 4 on Sunday Night Football than with Garoppolo, Belichick's favored successor, on the field with a first-round pick waiting in the wings? "Yeah, you won 2020 Tommy and we took a step back, but now we're back on our games for years to come ... "

I saw Jones at the offseason practices. I love his potential in this offense as much as anyone. But you'd be a fool not to think this year is, really, a bit early for him physically. And if Newton isn't better...

Does Stephon Gilmore have me over a barrel?

One of the things I learned early on covering this team is Belichick always leaves himself an out when it comes to players possibly asking for more money. There is always a player waiting in the wings, or a high draft pick peeking over someone's shoulders.

Which makes this Gilmore situation downright puzzling. Belichick literally has no other option than to pay Gilmore what he wants, at least for this season. JC Jackson may be ready to be a No. 1 corner (and will need to get paid a year from now too) and Jonathan Jones is a great slot corner, but after that? Jalen Mills? Michael Jackson? Joejuan Williams? Myles Bryant? Not saying they absolutely can't do it, but here's no evidence at this point to tell us they can hold up as a starting man coverage cornerback. And the Patriots have to have great man coverage to make this defense work. There's also nothing left on the street.

It absolutely confounds me that Belichick hasn't traded for someone, or drafted a cornerback high to give himself an out. Maybe that means Belichick knows he has to pay Gilmore for one year. But it's strange.

If the Patriots balk at Gilmore's demands, the only recourse could be to go back to the days of Sterling Moore, Antwuan Molden and Earthwind Moreland. Say it ain't so...

What if Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne aren't that good?

Patriots jumped on both players in free agency and they had good offseasons. But that if Agholor, with fans back in stands, can't perform in another Northeast city in the bright lights? What if Bourne is just a No. 3 or 4?

What other options do the Patriots have ... Jakobi Meyers, N'Keal Harry, Gunner Olszewski, Isaiah Zuber? How is that any different than the previous couple of seasons?

Oh, yeah, and you don't have that No. 12 guy to make chicken salad out of chicken bleep...

What if Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry aren't healthy/effective?

The Patriots made future bets on their two $15 million tight ends, without question. And the talent is there. But the Patriots also wagered heavily that Smith and Henry will be healthier and more productive with New England.

Here's a chart of their games missed, games with less than 70 percent of the snaps, and catch-less games the previous two seasons. 

The games missed aren't horrible, and neither are the playing time issues. But the no catches? Concerning. Put it another way ... the two players played in 57 of a possible 64 games the past two seasons. In 43.9 percent of their games, neither had a catch. Sure, the bulk came from Smith when he was playing with Delanie Walker, but it was Smith's third year in the league. He wasn't a rookie or anything. Smith also didn't do much down the stretch last season and the Titans' offense didn't miss a beat.

And, remember, both of these players could have been retained by their former teams, who weren't set at their positions, and who knew them best, and both passed.

So, yeah, something to worry about there.

We're going to continue to look at other worries/questions ... which ones are on your mind?

NICKEL PACKAGE

1. Tom Brady finally comes clean. Bravo ... Brady finally came clean on HBO's The Shop about one thing ... that no one should take him at his word in press conferences.

“What I say and what I think are two different things,” Brady said. “I would say 90 percent of what I say is not what I’m thinking, which is challenging. I really admire people that actually can do that and say what they think because they invite a lot of other things. I think there’s part of me that doesn’t like conflict. So in the end, I always try to play it super flat.

“From a strategic standpoint, I never want to give away what I’m doing. I usually say the opposite. If they got a s—ty corner, I’ll say, ‘That guy’s unbelievable. I don’t know how they can complete balls over there.’ And in my mind, I’m thinking, ‘I’m going to go at that mother f—er all day.’ I don’t want to give them anything."

Of professional athletes, Brady is like 95 percent of them. That's why, if at a podium, I don't pay attention to 90 percent of what they say. And if you come at me, don't use someone's podium quote as evidence ... they are saying what they need to say.

2. Brady did say his career is coming to the end. I guess he's not going to play forever. Maybe next year at 45, which he pointed to several times over the years, really will be it.

“We’re coming to the end,” he said. “It’s coming to the end.”

3. Could Aaron Rodgers opt-out? The NFL is allowing players to opt-out of this season, similar to last year, with no questions asked. That would be a great option for Aaron Rodgers — the Packers couldn't touch his money if he withheld his services. The problem is, the deadline is July 2.

I can't see Rodgers eliminating himself from playing this season by that date. Plus, he loves the drama and he'll want to play it out. 

Still the think the most likely scenario is Rodgers not reporting and showing up at some point that's very inconvenient to the Packers — likely during the season.

4. Steelers shocker with RG David DeCastro: Those of us o-line gurus were likely surprised to see the Steelers release their Pro Bowl guard this week, but it turns out it was medical related — DeCastro has been dealing with foot injuries that finally needed surgery. He could be back later. 

Still, this is further evidence that Joe Thuney and/or Shaq Mason were screwed by DeCastro's rep vote for all-star teams, especially last season.

How the Steelers' once-mighty offensive line has fallen. This is going to be an issue for them,

5. Jets beef up offensive line for Zach Wilson: I'm not the biggest Morgan Moses fan, but you have to give the Jets credit for signing the former Washington RT — they're getting serious about improving their offensive line. Not only do they have stud behemoth Mekhi Becton (if he stays on the field) at LT, and rookie Alijah Vera-Tucker at LG, but Moses is a huge upgrade at RT over George Fant. Still need a center and RG.