NHL Notebook: Is Bobby Ryan worth a look for Bruins; why Craig Smith could be the steal of this top-heavy UFA class

After breaking down the pending free agents that Boston should steer clear of this offseason in our last weekend notebook, let's focus on a few names that Boston should keep tabs on when free agency opens on Oct. 9th. We'll focus on a pair forwards in this segment, with a breakdown of free-agent defensemen dropping later this week. In terms of targets, we're also going to save our thoughts on the feasibility of no-brainer, big-fish acquisitions like Taylor Hall for later this week. This is a more a look at some middle-six or value free-agent targets that may not steal headlines, but could provide great value as Don Sweeney looks to navigate this offseason with a flat salary cap upper limit of $81.5 million. 

Bobby Ryan, Right Wing

The NHL buyout window is officially open — signaling close to two weeks in which teams can jettison albatross contracts and free up cap space in anticipation of free agency and the perils that lie ahead with a stagnant cap ceiling. 

And yet, despite the number of likely slam-dunk candidates (Henrik Lundqvist) when it comes to buyouts, the first name to hit the transaction wire was quite the shock — considering said player is the reigning Masterton Trophy winner.

The Ottawa Senators announced Friday morning that winger Bobby Ryan was placed on waivers for the purpose of buying out the final two years of the seven-year, $50.75 million contact he inked back in October 2014. Ryan, 33, is coming off of a season in which he tallied five goals and eight total points over 24 games — with the veteran winger taking an extended leave of absence in November to join the NHL/NHLPA player assistance program due to alcohol abuse.

Ryan eventually returned to the Senators in late February, scoring a hat trick in his first home back in Ottawa on March 2nd. Given his efforts toward overcoming these struggles away from the rink, his willingness to share his own story with the public and his inspiring play down the final stretch of the Senators' season, it didn't come as much of a surprise that Ryan was named the 2019-20 Masterton Trophy winner — given annually to the player who best exemplifies the qualities of perseverance, sportsmanship and dedication to hockey.

And yet, even with Ottawa in line to add a few stagnant contracts just to hit the salary cap floor for the upcoming 2020-21 campaign, Eugene Melnyk and the Sens opted to shave off about $3.6 million in Ryan's annual cap hit by way of this buyout — which spreads a portion of his remaining salary out over four seasons, while making the veteran an unrestricted free agent.

In a top-heavy cluster of free agents inundated with (expensive) top prizes like Taylor Hall, aging veterans and empty stat-stuffers like Mike Hoffman — Ryan stands as an intriguing option as a low-risk, potentially high-reward addition for a team in desperate need of offensive production in the middle six.

Sound like any club you know?

So would taking a flyer on a player like Ryan be worth it for Boston?



As far as the fiscal side of things, Boston has the cap space (around $15 million to open the offseason) to make a number of moves — whether it be adding to this core via free agency or taking on larger contracts via trades.

As such, the B's will have the financial freedom to be players for Ryan — although, given more pressing vacancies residing in the top six and on the blue line, they likely won't want to get into a bidding war or commit a solid chunk of change for the veteran winger.

That being said, Ryan shouldn't cost a pretty penny to bring aboard for the 2020-21 season. Not only is there an awful lot of uncertainty when it comes to Ryan's injury history and his declining offensive production, but the veteran already has a bit of a safety net in terms of the sizable amount of money he's still set to earn each of the next four years as part of his buyout deal with the Senators. Put it all together, and Ryan seems to be this offseason's wild card in line to ink a "prove-it" type contract.

Now, if Boston was interested in bringing in a veteran like Ryan, let's be candid here — he's not going to be the top-six solution to slot in next to David Krejci. (Or perhaps they'll try it and wait for Krejci to promptly tear his hair out in frustration). No, Ryan's days as a bonafide, top-six sniper are in the past.

A 30+ goal scorer for four straight seasons from 2008-12 with the Ducks, Ryan never tallied more than 23 goals in his seven seasons with the Senators. Prior to the 2019-20 season — a year in which matters much more important than hockey certainly played a role in his offensive decline— Ryan still only averaged 13 goals, 33 points and 67 games played over his previous three "full" seasons from 2016-19. So no, if Ryan signs on with Boston, it's a boom-or-bust move with the hope that the veteran finds a second wind skating next to Charlie Coyle on the third line.

Granted, Boston has a glut of options ready to complete for those minutes next to Coyle — whether it be Anders Bjork, Jack Studnicka, Nick Ritchie, Zach Senyshyn, Ondrej Kase and many more. But if the price is low, Ryan's potential could entice Boston to kick the tires on the 6-foot-2 winger and see if he provides a more consistent scoring punch on a line that, for as much as the analytics laud it, often struggles to capitalize on the impressive puck-possession metrics it garners.

The risk aren't necessarily high here, but does Ryan even have enough in the tank to warrant Boston taking a flier on him — given that Don Sweeney and Co. will be awfully busy taking care of more pressing issues within the B's lineup this fall?

Even if the baseline numbers don't stand out this past season — one that also should be weighed a bit differently given Ryan's battles off the ice and the lack of talent around him in Ottawa — there's at least SOMETHING there that a team could tap into for 2020-21.

Ryan is no longer a power-play weapon (nor would he need to be one with Boston), but the winger hasn't let his dip in scoring totals dissuade him from consistently generating shot attempts whenever he hops over the boards.

Among the 668 NHLers this past season that logged at least 200 minutes of 5v5 ice time, Ryan actually ranked 35th in individual shot attempts per 60 minutes at 16.14. (For reference, other potential third third line candidates like Ritchie and Bjork ranked 222nd and 365th in the same category).



(For reference on Micah Blake McCurdy’s individual impact charts via Hockey Viz — On the offensive side of things, you’d want to see a player providing positive numbers — with the red blobs signifying where the team is generating a majority of their shots from whenever said player is on the ice. Defensively, negative numbers are a sign that a team is snuffing out opposing scoring chances whenever said player is on the ice. As such, the blue blobs represent where the opposition’s shots aren’t regularly coming from. Even on a brutal Senators team, Ryan still provided to be a positive offensive presence this past season despite bottom-six reps and an extended absence in the middle of the year). 

Now, do the Bruins NEED to sign Bobby Ryan? No, they don't. Bjork has to begin shooting (and finishing) more, but there's still plenty to like about what a youngster like him brings to this club. Even Kase (who ranked 15th in NHLers in individual shot attempts per 60 minutes this past season) could thrive next to Coyle if Boston is able to add another top-six weapon and push the Czech winger further down the lineup.

But if Ryan is there for the taking on a deal that won't hold many ramifications both in term and average annual value, can you really say no to what the re-energized veteran could bring to this club if things manage to click?

Craig Smith, Right Wing

Nope, he won't draw remotely the same amount of buzz that other free agent wingers like Hall, Hoffman and Evgenii Dadonov will generate this offseason. Hell, even his name sounds like it was spawned out of an NHL20 CreateAPlayer generator. But Smith very well could be the best bang-for-your-buck forward on the market — especially for teams looking for veteran scoring in the middle six.

Smith is often under-looked on a Nashville team with bigger guns up front such as Ryan Johansen, Matt Duchene, Filip Forsberg and Viktor Arvidsson, but the winger has been about as steady as they come — especially in his regular role on a Preds third line next to the likes of Rocco Grimaldi and Nick Bonino. 

If Boston wants to spend a little bit more to really get that third line going, Smith makes an awful lot of sense — especially considering his cap hit would likely hover more around the $3.5-4.5 million range in terms of average annual value. Smith, 31, also doesn't bring the same concerns when compared to other free-agent forwards when it comes to term, with Smith's agent, Kevin Magnuson, telling Adam Vingan of the Athletic that their "goal" this offseason is a three-year contract. 

Considering the impact that Smith has had with just about any line he's logged heavy minutes with over the years — one team is going to be very lucky this fall when it comes to bringing a volume shooter like him into the fold on such a palatable deal.

The basic stats are solid enough, with Smith scoring at least 20 goals in five of his last seven seasons (he likely would have tallied at least 20 goals this year had the season not been paused in March - 18 G / 69 GP). But you factor in the underlying numbers during 5v5 play (an area where Boston NEEDS more production) and Smith has been an absolute monster over the years.



I mean — good lord, dude.

Not only did Smith tally 14 5v5 goals as a third liner for Nashville this past season (which would rank third on the 2019-20 Bruins), he is downright elite in terms of being a shot generator, especially in a middle six role.

Among that same list of 668 NHLers this past season that we used to gauge Ryan's underlying numbers, Smith's totals just jump off the page:

5v5 goals per 60 minutes: 41st overall (1.12)
5v5 shots per 60 minutes: 5th overall (11.74)
5v5 individual expected goals for per 60 minutes: 5th overall (0.98)
5v5 individual shot attempts per 60 minutes: 21st overall (16.76)
5v5 individual high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes: 37th overall (4.55)

Not only is Smith an underrated (or underutilized) weapon in this free-agent class, but he also brings value down the other end of the ice — a perk that other snipers on the market like Hoffman can't boast of. When that line of Smith, Bonino and Grimaldi was deployed together this past season, the ice was decidedly tilted in Nashville's favor.

Among forward lines that logged at least 400 minutes of ice time together this past season, that trio of  Smith, Bonino and Grimaldi ranked first overall in goals for percentage at 72.5%. In other words, the Predators scored 72.5% of all the goals tallied during the time (29 goals for, 11 goals against) in which that Nashville third line was deployed.

That goals for percentage is higher than some pretty elite trios, to say the least:

Grimaldi-Bonino-Smith (NSH) — 72.5% goals for percentage
Panarin-Strome-Fast (NYR) — 70% goals for percentage
Pettersson-Miller-Boeser (VAN) — 65.9% goals for percentage
Marchand-Bergeron-Pastrnak (BOS) — 65.7% goals for percentage
Tatar-Danault-Gallagher (MTL) — 58.1% goals for percentage
Huberdeau-Barkov-Dadonov (FLA) — 54.4% goals for percentage
Draisaitl-McDavid-Kassian (EDM) — 54% goals for percentage


Not too shabby for a third line, eh?

These numbers also aren't a flash in the pan for the 2019-20 season either. Back in 2017-18, Smith was part of another line next to Kyle Turris and Kevin Fiala that logged 545 minutes of 5v5 ice time together. They outscored the competition, 32-13, during that stretch. The numbers don't lie — anywhere Smith seems to go in the lineup, the Predators absolutely hammer their matchup.

Put all those numbers together, and it's easy for a stat geek like yours truly to get awfully excited about what a guy like Smith could bring to this team, especially when factoring in that he wouldn't exactly break the bank either. Not only could a winger of Smith's caliber offer a major lift on Coyle's line, he could also provide value higher up in the lineup if necessary, whether that be with Krejci or even next to Patrice Bergeron if David Pastrnak is slotted down to balance out scoring. This isn't to say that the pursuit of Smith shouldn't deter the B's for focusing on adding even more talent up front, but Smith stands as a bargain considering the numbers he regularly churns out.

Yes, you'd find many quick-hit, insta-reactions that would likely undersell a move like this if Boston was to ink Smith to a three-year, $12 million deal on Oct. 9, especially if guys like Hoffman and Dadonov go off the board around the same time. But don't fret. Whether it be the Bruins or plenty of other teams vying for the veteran's services, one club is going to be awfully happy to bring aboard a player like Smith for the 2020-21 season and beyond.

Kevan Miller still battling back

After undergoing four knee surgeries in the span of just 14 months, the odds appear to be stacked against Kevan Miller when it comes to the rugged defenseman logging shifts in an NHL game for the first time since April 2019. 

Just don’t tell him those odds, of course.

Despite undergoing yet another procedure as late as March 2020, Miller is once again back on his feet and training for the 2020-21 season.

Miller’s is agent, Peter Fish, posted a video of the soon-to-be unrestricted free agent working out earlier this week — putting plenty of stress on a battered knee that suffered both a horizontal and vertical kneecap fracture in the span of under two months back in 2019.

https://twitter.com/peterfish35/status/1308476516431523840

Miller, the Bruins’ nominee for the 2019-20 Masterton Trophy, has stressed multiple times that he intends on continuing his NHL career, despite the multiple setbacks that kept him out of action for the entire 2019-20 campaign. 

“I’d be lying to you if I wasn’t worried like, ‘Hey I don’t know how this is all gonna end up,’” Miller said back in June. “But it’s part of my job. It’s part of my passion. I want to be healthy, right? I want to play. I know I can help the team. It’s a tough pill to swallow, like when you’re showing up to the rink and you can’t help the guys and it’s been so long since you’ve been able to play a game. But I’m not losing hope on that at all. If anything, it’s kind of pushing me to push more, to make sure that I’m doing it the right way to get back out there and try and get back to 100%.”

Of course, while Miller’s hard-hitting style of play still holds value in this league, it remains to be seen just how much traction the defenseman gets on the free-agent market — especially given the severity of the injuries he suffered and the multiple setbacks that have followed with his rehab efforts.

It wouldn’t come as much of a surprise if Miller — if no legitimate offers are found this offseason — will get a shot at Boston’s training camp by way of a professional tryout contract. Of course, even then it would be an uphill climb for Miller given health issues and the number of right-shot D already present on Boston’s roster (the left side is a different story). 

Still, it’d be unwise to completely rule out a player like Miller when it comes to orchestrating a comeback, and the Bruins will likely do everything they can to facilitate said comeback — even if it ultimately results in him patrolling a blue line with another organization down the road.

Stats and graphs via Natural Stat Trick, Sean Tierney and HockeyViz.