Whether it be a slew of assets or some cap flexibility, Don Sweeney and the Bruins have a number of different avenues they can take in order to retool this roster for another run at the Cup.
A flat salary cap upper limit of $81.5 million looms large this offseason, prompting a number of franchises to cut payroll, sell off assets to remain below the stagnant ceiling and take a long look at their respective rosters ahead of a fiscal crunch.
Despite these worries, Boston is in a better situation than most clubs, with the B's set to open this offseason with a little over $15 million in cap space. Granted, that cap flexibility comes at the price of letting Torey Krug walk in free agency, while Boston will also have to divert some of that cash toward re-signing RFAs like Jake DeBrusk and Matt Grzelcyk. Still, Boston should have a solid chunk of change remaining — with more freed up if Boston finds ways to unload contracts like John Moore's — to be active in free agency and on the trade market.
But just because Boston has some capital available this fall, doesn't mean that the B's should splurge in what is a pretty top-heavy free agent market — especially if more impactful assets can be obtained through trades. While there might be some value found deeper in the pool of free-agent skaters, here are a few buzz-worthy targets that Boston should steer clear of in free agency.
Mike Hoffman, Left Wing
Age: 30 (turns 31 on Nov. 24)
2019-20 Stats: 69 games played, 29 goals, 59 points, 16:50 ATOI
On paper, a player like Hoffman seems like a natural fit for what Boston is desperately seeking this offseason — with the veteran winger establishing himself as a top-six weapon that has consistently lit the lamp for years now thanks to that elite shot he wields. Adding Hoffman could be the antidote that a team like the Bruins is desperately in need of, with the forward averaging 28 goals over the past six seasons. Slot him in next to a playmaking pivot like David Krejci and bam — problem solved, right?
Well, for as much as the baseline numbers signal a dependable finisher in line for a nice pay day — there should be a lot of buyer beware for any club willing to open up the checkbook for Hoffman, especially for a team in a spot like Boston.
Yes, signing Hoffman will, in the immediate, net you a goalscorer that will give you another consistent weapon up front. But for a team like Boston that also prides itself in being a structured defensive club, adding in a D-zone liability like Hoffman might actually do more harm than whatever offense he contributes down the other end of the ice.
Despite his offensive talents and favorable starts in the attacking zone (58.51 offensive zone faceoff percentage during 5v5 play with Florida), the Panthers haven't fared all that well during when Hoffman has been out on the ice. Over two seasons with Florida, Hoffman has logged 1,934 minutes of 5v5 ice time. During that stretch, opponents have held the edge over the Panthers in ...
Shot attempts: 1,786 - 1,777 (49.87% shot share)
Shots on goal: 1,012 - 970
Goals scored: 88 - 73 (wooooof.)
Hi-danger scoring chances: 367 - 300
Those are some brutal numbers — and a pretty serious indictment on Hoffman's game and why one shouldn't always be clouded by baseline numbers when sizing up a player's value. Yes, Hoffman might score 25+ goals with Boston, but what value is that bringing to this team if the opposition scores 30 down the other end of the ice?
Even Hoffman's strengths when it comes to generating offense ring a bit hollow, especially when it comes to his contributions during 5v5 play — where the Panthers actually managed to fare better when he was on the bench.
(For reference on Micah Blake McCurdy’s individual impact charts via Hockey Viz — On the offensive side of things, you’d want to see a player providing positive numbers — with the red blobs signifying where the team is generating a majority of their shots from whenever said player is on the ice. Defensively, negative numbers are a sign that a team is snuffing out opposing scoring chances whenever said player is on the ice. As such, the blue blobs represent where the opposition’s shots aren’t regularly coming from. As seen above, the Panthers are actually generating more excess shots from the slot and around the net when Hoffman is off the ice.)
Even though Hoffman is still a productive presence on a power play (28 tallies on the man advantage over the last two seasons), that value wanes when placed on a club like Boston, who already has a number of talented contributors slotted into said special-teams roles such as David Pastrnak, Brad Marchand and Patrice Bergeron.
Couple these evident flaws with the certainty that a team is going to shell up some serious dough in account of past performance, and Hoffman is an aging veteran that is simply not worth the hassle for the Bruins — despite how tempting the initial numbers are.
Erik Gustafsson, Defenseman
Age: 28
2019-20 Stats: 66 games played, 6 goals, 29 points, 20:23 ATOI
Well, if Krug does indeed walk in free agent — why not just replace him with another skilled left-shot D that racked up an impressive 60 points during the 2018-19 season? Easy peasy, right?
Of course not. When is it ever, especially when it comes to navigating the mine field that is NHL free agency? As such, even a playmaker with the talent of Gustafsson has his fair share of red flags.
Yes, his offensive totals put forward on a pretty dreadful Chicago team in 2018-19 is definitely eye-catching, but all of that offensive generation came at the expense of ... yep, you guessed it.
This past season, his numbers in both Chicago and Calgary dipped back toward his average expected scoring output, but his regression to the mean didn't generate an increased emphasis on play down the other end of the ice. Among the 197 NHL defenseman that logged at least 500 minutes of 5v5 ice time this past season, Gustafsson ranked ...
182nd in high-danger scoring chances against per 60 minutes - 12.63
190th in shots against per 60 minutes - 34.65
194th in expected goals against per 60 minutes -
Ultimately, if you're going to let Krug walk in free agency, it doesn't make much sense to replace him with a defenseman in Gustafsson who might provide even less value in terms of his defensive contributions. If you're going to shell out $4-5 million annually in order to bring in another top-four D, it'd make more sense for Boston to switch things up and look at a steadier option like T.J. Brodie instead — or scour the trade market.
Wayne Simmonds, Right Wing
Age: 32
2019-20 Stats: 68 games played, 8 goals, 25 points, 14:55 ATOI
Another staple of every Bruins offseason? The pursuit of a big-bodied bruiser to add up front and beef up a B's club that has been outmuscled and held to the outside of Grade-A ice in each of its last three playoff exits. Simmonds is a name that has often been tossed out when it comes to potential additions that would add some snarl to the B's. But, as has been the case for years now, Simmonds' best days are far behind him now — and Boston would be wise to pass on the power forward this offseason.
The NHL is indeed a copy-cat league, and the fact that a big fella like Patrick Maroon could soon secure himself two consecutive Cups with two separate teams could once again drive contenders to scour the market for other hulking skaters designed to knock around the competition. But Boston has failed to find such a physical presence for YEARS now — with their latest addition in Nick Ritchie still under contract for 2020-21 after an underwhelming start with the B's.
If the B's are indeed looking to add some size further down the lineup, they should be looking more at the type of grinders that thrive in today's NHL — a move that worked out perfectly for Tampa when they added a 20-goal/200-hit winger in Blake Coleman. Yes, Boston might need more size (either on the blue line or in the bottom six), but adding a past-his-prime winger like Simmonds who will drag down a roster looking to push the pace isn't going to help this club in 2020 and beyond.
In the coming days, we'll take a look at some value options Boston could take a look at, but the case remains — if Boston really wants to retool on the fly without obliterating cap flexibility (looking at you, Taylor Hall and Alex Pietrangelo), the best bet would be working the phones with other GMs, rather than rolling the dice out on the open market.
Negotiating rights a valuable commodity this offseason?
What is already going to be frantic offseason for many clubs got even more challenging to map out — thanks to some augmentations to an already compressed schedule. In years past, teams were allowed a pre-interview window in which they could begin conversations with free agents before signings could become official. It was a way for player and organization to make some inroads before the feeding frenzy that comes from Day 1 of free agency muddies the waters. But that window has been removed in this upcoming offseason, with teams only getting the chance to begin conversations with free-agent targets as soon as the market opens on Oct. 9 at noon.
Given that change, negotiating rights could be a valuable trade chip this offseason, as teams with little chance of re-signing their own players might ask for a draft pick in return for giving another team a chance to work out a deal with said player before free agency begins. Such a move went down last week, as the Hurricanes traded the negotiating rights of soon-to-be free agent Joel Edmundson to the Canadiens in exchange for a fifth-round pick. The deal gave the Habs a window they needed to ink the defenseman to a four-year, $14 million contract well ahead of the start of free agency.
With more and more clubs looking to get the leg up against the competition before free agency kicks off, expect a couple more of these negotiating rights to be dealt — especially if clubs like the Coyotes, Blues and even the Bruins believe that they won't be able to retain the services of Taylor Hall, Alex Pietrangelo and Torey Krug, respectively.
Stats and graphs via Natural Stat Trick, Sean Tierney and HockeyViz.