In a vacuum, the Patriots' offense has been very much a work in progress this camp.
That's actually being kind. It has looked downright ugly at times, especially in the passing game.
Jarrett Stidham started pressing two days in and missed the fifth day of practice with a lower-body injury despite being 24 and never being touched in practice. Cam Newton has often been hesitant with the ball and has taken a lot of checkdowns instead of pressing the ball downfield. Brian Hoyer, despite his problematic tic of patting the ball before throwing, has probably been the most consistent quarterback and, of course, has a better handle on the offense.
As for the receivers, N'Keal Harry has been missing in action (more on that below) the last two days and unimpressive in the other sessions. If you told me Mohamed Sanu wasn't at the last five practices, I wouldn't argue because he's been that invisible. Julian Edelman has been doing his usual camp routine where he's on or off depending on the day, but there are increasing moments he looks 34. There are a bunch of no-names — Devin Ross, Gunner Olszewski, Jakobi Meyers and Damiere Byrd — doing most of the work.
As for the tight ends, Devin Asiasi has been OK but hasn't made many plays. Dalton Keene is either dropping passes or making a mental error. Ryan Izzo is a little better but he still has the limit of a No. 3 TE.
Two running backs (Sony Michel and Lamar Miller) haven't even been on the field yet and the season is three weeks away.
Sounds like we're headed for a disaster with the Patriots' offense, right?
Actually, quite the opposite. If you look closely and put practice events in their proper context, there's some really good stuff brewing for this offense that will be more apparent in the games than they are in these early sessions.
Do the Patriots and their quarterbacks look borderline terrible in 7-on-7s and sessions where they're running 20 straight third downs against a pretty good and deep secondary? Yes. And if Tom Brady was here, you'd understandably be worried about this team's prospects — like we were last summer.
But this is going to be a completely different Patriots offensive approach. It's basically going to be Bully Ball, with the biggest QB bully on the planet — yes the 6-foot-5, 245-pound Newton, not Hoyer — at the center of it.
Here's why, instead of a five-alarm fire, there's a quiet confidence building around the Patriots' offense:
TOUGHNESS AND PHYSICALITY
There's been a lot of passing so far in camp and even during the running periods, it's hard for the media to really tell what's going on without the aid of coaches' film because things are moving so fast. Was it bad defense or good offense? Difficult to discern. It seems like the Patriots are doing some really nice work in the running game, especially Damien Harris and the offensive line, but that's at a quick glance.
However, discussions with those who would know have not only confirmed what we've seen in practice, but are even stronger on it: this is going to be one tough, physical offense that runs through their running game. The 2018 Patriots down the stretch were a gun-run team compared to what the 2020 Patriots might be.
It starts with the offensive line, a unit that is hell-bent on proving their 2019 struggles were an aberration. Isaiah Wynn, Joe Thuney, David Andrews and Shaq Mason have all been terrific so far. I need multiple hands to count the number of times there have been gaping holes for the backs to run through, and they're often not seeing contact for 5-plus yards past the line of scrimmage.
Jermaine Eluemunor has been one of the surprises of camp and has solidified the unit, and just might be an upgrade over Marcus Cannon when things are said and done. He and Mason have had some great double teams at the point of attack, and Eluemunor brings a little more athleticism to the position. I would not bank on Eluemunor for the long-term, however. He's been a player who has been motivationally challenged throughout his career (it's part of the reason why the Ravens were done with him). But Eluemunor saw what Trent Brown did in 2018 and the contract he landed with the Raiders off one good year with the Patriots ... let's just say Eluemunor is working from the same playbook.
It's not even just the starters. Hjalte Froholdt, one of the biggest busts of camp a season ago, looks like a completely different player this year and has basically locked down the backup interior spot and solidified the depth behind Andrews. Sixth-round pick Justin Herron and Korey Cunningham (a nobody a season ago after the trade from the Cardinals) have been so good the Patriots have shown no inclination to bring in a veteran tackle. Mike Onwenu, another sixth-round pick, is going to be a player at guard for this team in time.
In the backfield, Jakob Johnson, if he can stay healthy, has been a revelation and may just be better than James Develin, something he was on his way to proving before a shoulder injury ended his season. Johnson has been TNT blocking in front of the backs — good luck to a linebacker or safety who has to meet him in a hole. You can feel the blocks in the stands 100 yards away. And he can catch, and actually run.
Harris has brought a physicality to the running back position that Sony Michel never did. Harris is listed at 5-11 and 213 pounds, but I'd say he at least plays closer to 225 or 230. He is a physical load and can't be arm-tackled. His vision and cut-back ability is much more natural than Michel. At this point, it would be a big upset if Harris isn't the lead running back for this entire season.
Tight end is a work in progress, but there's a belief Asiasi will come along quick enough to give them what they need as the lead pass catcher. Keene's like a big puppy who's kind of all over the place right now, but if he can settle down at some point, he'll give the Patriots what they need at H-back. Izzo's been better, and he's sort of the catch-all backup to solidify things when needed.
Harry hasn't shown it in camp yet, but people are excited about the physicality he's shown overall. Apparently there was a play in an earlier practice where he was locked up with J.C. Jackson, a really good player, and Harry basically tossed Jackson out of the club on his way to scoring a touchdown. It's that kind of physicality that makes Harry the Newton of receivers: a power forward that needs to use his strengths to be effective. Harry is never going to be Edelman and run those routes. He needs to be more Anquan Boldin and there's a belief he can do that.
Then there's Newton, who may be the most physically imposing quarterback in NFL history. Is he going to win accuracy challenges or be a 7-on-7 king? No. But when you combine his physicality, his escapability, his running vision and moves, with his throwing, then you have an efficient quarterback.
There are zero concerns, right now, about his shoulder health. Those who haven't seen Newton in person or studied him previously ... he's never had a classic motion, has always dropped his throwing elbow, and there's always been a disconnect between his lower body and arm — you'd love to fix it and it would make him better, but it's a little late for that (the below video is from the 2016 season and before his shoulder issues).
Make no mistake, this competition is over. Unless Belichick has some ulterior motive, Brian Hoyer will not start the opener and then have Newton mix in. Newton is the quarterback of this team. Stidham had a chance and has looked terrific at times, but he keeps dropping and this "injury" has not helped him.
The Patriots are moving forward, possibly starting with this week's practices, with a bully persona offensively. They have built an impressive Off-The-Bus Team: when they step off the bus with that offensive line, Johnson, Harris and Newton in the backfield, and Harry and Edelman (one of the toughest slots ever) at receiver, this is one tough, physically-imposing offense on the field. That only happens with No. 1 at QB. Stidham and Hoyer don't fit that. Belichick knows better than anyone that if the Patriots do X, Y and Z with Newton, there are going to be serious problems for defenses because those plays attack the integrity of their scheme.
INCREASED SPEED
Are things all great with the Patriots' offense? Of course not, and no matter how well they run the ball and run over people, Newton is still going to be in the shotgun on third and long and throw the ball. But there is some enthusiasm there as well despite some obvious issues.
Harry, while still filled with promise, has not popped on the field and there will always be questions about how much separation he'll get as an X receiver. Sanu gets so little separation that none of the quarterbacks throw to him during team drills. Edelman is Edelman, but he's 34 and it's going to go the other way at some point. The rest of the receivers are a bunch of nameless and faceless players.
And that's just fine with the Patriots.
Devin Ross has not only been a playmaker on the field, but the defensive backs are privately raving about his speed, quickness and smarts. He's quickly become one of the best route runners on the team and is more than pushing for time — he's going to be out there.
Damiere Byrd has real speed and is a huge upgrade over Phillip Dorsett, who never played to his timed speed due to timidness.
Gunner Olszewski has always had speed and wiggle, but now after an offseason transforming his body, he looks like a taller Danny Amendola.
Jakobi Meyers hasn't popped like he did a year ago, but he runs precise routes and catches the ball.
Undrafted free agent Jeff Thomas has barely practiced in pads, but his speed has impressed behind the scenes and to this point, he's been a pro and has not been a problem (he had issues in college).
So right now it's Edelman, Harry and a bunch of speed, which is a huge upgrade from where the Patriots were a year ago. Right now, the depth chart appears to be:
Edelman
Harry
Byrd
Ross
Olszewski
Thomas
Meyers
Yes, there's no Sanu on that list. At this point, the odds are better that he is traded or released and the Patriots take a bath on that second-round pick they gave up for him. His legs just look shot at this point. There's no juice. Unless there's an injury, it hard to see a spot for him. If the Patriots keep a sixth/seventh receiver, you'd think Meyers ($500,000) would have an edge on Sanu ($6.5 million).
Is the Patriots' receiving corp even close to what Tom Brady is operating with in Tampa? Of course not. But as we've talked about all offseason, the threat of Newton factors into all this.
The Patriots' receivers who created no space last year will automatically have more room to operate on all downs due to Newton's presence. Not only does Newton's legs have to be accounted for on third down — which should limit the double teams on Edelman — but teams will be limited in the amount of man coverage they can play and will need to have eyes on the backfield because of Newton.
Let's just say, the Patriots face 3rd and 5 on the Ravens' 20-yard line late in the game and need a score to win. The Patriots come out in the shotgun, and it's Newton and White in the backfield. From left to right, it's Harry, Edelman, Asiasi/Ross and Byrd. After the snap, Newton rides the handoff to White for a split second. The cornerback covering Harry is keeping an eye on the handoff and Newton possibly keeping it. The corner hesitates for a second. Harry never breaks stride, now has a step-and-a-half on the corner, catches the slant, bowls over 200-pound Ravens safety Chuck Clark and goes into the end zone for the game-winning touchdown.
Separation, if the Patriots stay ahead of the sticks with a physical running game, should not be as big an issue as it was under Brady, who wasn't leaving the pocket.
Now you can see a successful, if much different, path forward for an offense that, if you looked at the individual pieces and in the context of working with a pocket passer, is not all that individually talented.
More than ever, this offense will be as good as the sum of its parts. And so far, they feel pretty good about that despite what we've seen to this point.
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NICKEL PACKAGE: DEFENSIVE CONCERNS GROWING
1. As much as enthusiasm as there might be for the Patriots' offense, there are growing concerns about how much regression the defense might have in the wake of the Dont'a Hightower and Patrick Chung opt-outs. Things are far from settled at safety, where Adrian Phillips has yet to ascend to the starting role he seemed destined to have, but the bigger issues are at linebacker and edge. Josh Uche might be a year away from being an every-down player, and there's little behind him. There is some belief that Anfernee Jennings, who's only been on the field two days, could be a starter soon and Uche could help more on the edge. John Simon, Chase Winovich and Shilique Calhoun are fine, but no one has stood out. The front seven, more often than not, is getting beaten up by this physical offense.
2. Overall, I'm very impressed with the improvement by many Patriots players during this offseason when they were not in the building. Not to sound like a homer or anything, but I do think it says a lot about the professionalism of the players they have brought in that almost across the board — Olszewski, Ross, Wynn, Eluemunor, Cunningham, Izzo, Harris, Deatrich Wise, Adam Butler, Terrence Brooks — the players used a strange offseason to their advantage, not an excuse.
3. Along with Sanu, another guy who doesn't appear to have a spot at the moment is Joejuan Williams. Just can't crack this depth chart. Not sure what will happen there.
4. Not surprised that Rob Gronkowski looks much better than the last time we saw him on the field, after year on the sidelines. “He looks like he was five or six years ago, before all the injuries,” coach Bruce Arians told reporters. “The back surgeries have healed. No similarities at all (to '18 Gronk).” We've been all over this Gronkowski angle going back to when he was on the team, and detailed his issues behind the scenes. NFL people still question what his legs are going to look like in November, and whether his body can absorb blows when he's more TB12 Method than on the all-squat team.
5. There's a belief in some circles that some of the extended absences the Patriots have had, including N'Keal Harry and Stephon Gilmore, have more to do with a non-Covid illness running through part of the team than injuries. It's a strange time right now, so the sniffles get you the same treatment — quarantine and the need for multiple negative tests to return to the field. It's just part of the game now.
A league source from another team said how teams handle these situations is really up to them. Most get sent home for a few days to make sure the tests are consistently negative.
BONUS: Fifth-round pick Justin Rohrwasser hasn't kicked since the first day of practice, when he was a very shaky 3 of 5. Since then, he's only ridden the bike in front of the media, so there was some fear that an injury was at play. Well, the Patriots are re-signing Nick Folk, according to NFL.com.
Patriots made a few more minor transactions to begin the new practice week on Sunday (BSJ will be there, BTW): Patriots signed former Navy TE Paul Quessenberry and DT Xavier Williams, and released TE Alex Ellis and DT Darius Kilgo.