It's been one of the feel-good storylines of the NFL offseason.
Tom Brady leaves New England for Tampa Bay, calls up his old buddy Rob Gronkowski and the tight end comes out of retirement to play in the NFL again.
Has all the makings, right? The Shawshank Redemption II: Tom and Gronk escape Warden Belichick and live out their football lives making their own hours and sailing boat charters for Captain Bruce on the Gulf of Mexico.
Who wouldn't love that kind of movie? I'm betting some Patriots fans would privately relish watching Brady and Gronkowski soar to great heights away from Fort Foxborough.
One possible flaw in that script: What if Gronkowski is just ... average? Because if you asked around the league — including sources around the team — they'd say that's what he was his final season in New England. And the chances of a year off helping him improve over the course of a full season are not good.
"Was he just beaten down at the end of 2018 and, after a year off, he'll come back refreshed for one final run?" said one AFC general manager. "Sure, I guess that's possible. Tampa better hope so, or they just wasted $9 million. What he showed in 2018 ... that's not worth it."
Let's just get one thing ... actually two things ... out of the way.
One, what the executive said: Maybe we have no idea just how low Gronkowski was physically and mentally during the 2018 season. Maybe a year off to get his body and mind was exactly what Gronkowski needed and we'll see more of explosiveness.
I mean, we're talking about a guy who started to have a lot of issues during training camp in 2017. We were the first to question what was going on with Gronkowski and while it was mocked by other reporters (shocker ... same when we kept talking about Gronkowski possibly being traded ... and that happened too), Tom Curran later reported Gronkowski contemplated retirement during that camp.
So we could be talking about a guy who for the last two years sort of went through the motions, mentally and physically, and we'll now see a rejuvenated Gronkowski similar to 2016 before his injury.
If you're Tampa, that's what you're hoping for.
The other factor, before we get into some of the issues that cropped up with Gronkowski, is that even if his legs are average, he still has his height, arm length and hands — those all add up to an elite catch radius that still produced huge plays, including two plays that were directly responsible for the Patriots winning their last Super Bowl:
Remember when they was saying Eric Berry was the “Gronk stopper”? pic.twitter.com/Tz7R6zekyw
— TheClutchShow (@C1utchman85) January 21, 2019
Rob Gronkowski has retired after 9 seasons in the NFL. Final catch of his career⬇️
pic.twitter.com/WonO1QWU4j
— T/T Sports (@Sports2T) March 24, 2019
And this one
ROB GRONKOWSKI! WHAT A CATCH! pic.twitter.com/Df4vLadcuV
— Casey Baker (@CaseyBake16) October 30, 2018
Basically, Gronkowski could almost be in a wheelchair and he could still make plays when you need them, especially in the red zone. Playing with the elite outside talent of the Bucs should also help Gronkowski gain a little more space to make some plays.
So is Gronkowski going to be terrible and never make any plays in Tampa? Of course not. He'll get his, for sure.
But will his production over 16 games (if he even plays that many, which many doubt) and the postseason be enough to warrant his $9.25 million cap number?
That's where the NFL at large has a lot of concerns. The top issues with Gronkowski's return:
1. Teams no longer fear Gronkowski.
This is something that became evident midway through in the 2018 season when the Bills, Gronkowski's hometown team, had little issue limiting him to three catches and 43 yards on eight targets. The startling part of it was there was no special plan to take Gronkowski out of the game — he was only doubled twice. The Bills treated him like any other tight end and he couldn't produce.
Part of the appeal of the tight end was even when he didn't produce all that much in the game, Gronk dictated coverage and made things easier on Brady. That ceased in 2018. He no longer opened things up for other players, which meant he needed to be productive and win one-on-one battles. That didn't happen much either until Brady was desperate and had no other choice but to throw into coverage (something he doesn't do unless he absolutely has to).
2. Gronkowski's explosion went off a cliff in 2018.
One of the tight end's greatest skills was his unbelievable explosion that showed coming off the line of scrimmage and beating coverage, and in his yards after the catch. In his prime, few could match just how explosive Gronkowski was.
But in his final two seasons, Gronkowski showed serious decline in his ability to kick into a higher gear than other players — and not only did it exhibit itself on film, but the stats backed it up as well.
After being among the league leaders in average yards after the catch from his second season, 2011, through 2016, Gronkowski went downhill in '17 and '18. Gronkowski also slipped greatly in a new advanced stat, YAC+, that he dominated like no other.
From FootballOutsiders.com:
YAC+ is similar to plus-minus; it estimates how much YAC a receiver gained compared to what we would have expected from an average receiver catching passes of similar length in similar down-and-distance situations. This is imperfect -- we don't specifically mark what route a player runs, and obviously a go route will have more YAC than a comeback -- but it does a fairly good job of telling you if this receiver gets more or less YAC than other receivers with similar usage patterns.
Gronkowski went from winning YAC+ four times in six years, to 13th and 31st before he retired:
[table id=439 /]
What was the issue? Those who were around Gronkowski pointed to his conversion to the TB12 Method, specifically his refusal to use weights in building up his legs. Gronkowski was the unnamed player in this report from me (at the time, I needed to protect my source):
A Patriots starter was told by Guerrero not to do squats. When the strength staff made that part of the player’s normal in-season workout, the player refused to do the exercise. That only added to the tension between the Patriots and Guerrero.
By the 2018 season, Gronkowski's lack of explosion was evident in practice and it only added to Brady's irritation, which was starting to bubble over.
3. Has his body maintenance program changed?
Those who know Gronkowski wonder if he's going old-school with weights to get ready for this season, or is he sticking with resistance and band training favored by Brady and body guru Alex Guerrero?
If Gronkowski isn't using weights, NFL people feel there's little chance he'll regain his explosiveness, and he'll continue to be more susceptible to contact injuries. Remember how Gronkowski said he suffered a brutal quad injury in the Super Bowl against the Rams that took weeks to recover from? Multiple sources questioned whether that injury would have happened or been that bad had he been using weights and squats to maintain the leg strength needed at his position.
"It's one thing for a quarterback or even a receiver or cornerback to do the TB12 stuff ... it doesn't work for the guys who are being hit all the time," said one source. "You need that strength, not pliability to deal with that."
All of this adds up to a lot of questions about how effective Gronkowski will be after a season on the sidelines.