There is much we don't know about Cam Newton as he becomes a member of the Patriots.
Most of the questions revolve around his health. In the span of less than two years, Newton twice needed surgery to repair a torn rotator cuff in his throwing shoulder. Was that just bad luck and he's beyond that, or is that a chronic issue that could crop up again?
Will the Lisfranc surgery he had last year (thanks to the sack by new teammate Adam Butler in the preseason) cause Newton to become less of a mobile quarterback?
So, yes, everything associated with Newton and the Patriots is predicated, first and foremost, on his health.
But given health, Newton should automatically improve — just by his presence — the Patriots' biggest weakness on offense in 2019: third-down passing. Specifically, third-and-medium (4-6 yards) passing. The Patriots posted some of their worst-ever numbers in both categories in 2019.
You can almost see Tom Brady tossing his helmet in frustration again.
Less than a month ago, we were asking the question about whether or not the Patriots had any chance of being better this season without Brady and with basically the same personnel? In my opinion, the Patriots needed big-time impact from, in order, rookie TE Devin Asiasi, WR Mohamed Sanu, WR N'Keal Harry and WR Damiere Byrd if there was any prayer of that happening. No, I wasn't all that optimistic. A lot of things needed to go right with an inexperienced quarterback for that to happen.
But with a healthy Newton here the equation has changed. Newton makes them automatically better. And the player who should be the most excited is Julian Edelman (maybe he is, judging by his Instagram post).
Why?
It's really very simple. Without a peak Rob Gronkowski, who had to be doubled before 2018, Edelman got all the double teams staring in '18, especially on third down. There was also a trickle-down effect last year after Gronk's retirement that saw the defensive back once assigned to the tight end, that defender now took James White and the back no longer had a great speed advantage against the player covering him.
The result was a passing offense that was just not good, and bottomed out in the frustrating playoff loss to the Titans:
With Brady stationary in the pocket, opponents could rush four, which would leave seven in coverage. Even with a deep safety, that left six coverage defenders against five targets for the Patriots (if they even sent five out given the pass protection issues).
Who do you think drew that extra coverage defender? Here's a hint: It wasn't Phillip Dorsett.
With an athletic quarterback like Newton on the field, the math changes. Defenses have to decide to play coverage, or take care of the quarterback. You can't do both.
In 2018, Newton and the Panthers beat a Ravens team that would have the third-best passing defense in the league according to FootballOutsiders.com. On the play below, the Ravens decided to worry more about Newton's legs, which left TE Greg Olsen one-on-one for a touchdown, but also gave RB Christian McCaffrey a mismatch if Newton wanted it:
The Patriots and Bill Belichick are universally known as a defensive team that tells you exactly what the offense's strengths and weaknesses are. In the 2017 contest at Gillette, which was mostly tipped by Stephon Gilmore being a disaster early in his Patriots tenure, the Patriots decided to play all coverage on this crucial third down where Newton exploited a lack of execution for an easy third down via his legs that set up a touchdown on the next play:
Additionally, the reason Gilmore had such a tough time was that the Patriots played so much zone coverage, and that's not a strength for him. The reason for so much zone? Newton's leg. Play man coverage without a spy and Newton will take off as soon as the defenders turn their backs to cover. Another advantage before the ball is snapped.
But, really, this is about Edelman. Teams will simply have to choose to stop him, or contain Newton. Edelman will rarely see a double team, and he's one of the best in the league beat man coverage.
Overall, this means much more space for everyone to get open for the Patriots.
A month ago, we wondered, "Who was going to get open?"
Now we ask, "Who won't have an opportunity to get open?"
That's simply due to the presence of a healthy Newton.