The biggest problem with the Patriots last season — and the most frustration for Tom Brady — was the Patriots' inability to convert on third downs.
Everything, really, started there.
Want to put up more points on offense? Convert more third downs.
Wanted the defense to be better at the end of the season? Would have helped if the offense was on the field more ... by converting more third downs.
The Patriots were, for them, abysmal last season, finishing 18th in the league — their worst ranking since at least 2002 — at 38.3 percent. They hadn't been that low since 37.8 in '03 ranked them 13th.
Third down is the money down, but not all third downs are created equal.
On third and long (more than 6 yards), you can expect to get more zone coverage, which is easier to convert against. Patriots were 18th there, right below the league average.
On third and short (less than 4 yards), scheme comes into play, along with playaction and motion — long a Patriots' strength. New England was tied for 11th there, just above the league average.
But on third and medium conversions (4-6 yards), the Patriots ranked 21st. That was actually a marked improvement, if you can believe it, over 2018 when the Patriots — clunky offensively until very late in the season and then on the way to squeaking out a sixth Super Bowl title — ranked 30th.
If third is the money down in the NFL, then third and medium is the high-roller distance. Neither the offensive nor the defense has an advantage, be it through scheme or distance. The playing field is level. It's mano a mano in more ways than one — it's a good pressure down for defenses, so you see a lot of man coverage.
Basically, an offense can't hide on third and medium. It's a mirror that tells you how many dangerous players you have, and the Patriots have not had enough of them the past two seasons on offense. Brady will tell you that.
Once it became apparent to defensive coordinators that Rob Gronkowski was no longer a nightmare matchup in 2018, that left the other Patriots exposed. In what would become a constant theme the past two seasons, offensive coordinators started to double team Julian Edelman and slide the safety or another defensive back from Gronkowski onto James White, the best third-down back in the league.
Starting in Week 10 through the Super Bowl in 2018 (minus the Vikings game against an unfamiliar NFC opponent), White averaged just 3.1 catches and 22.2 yards per game receiving.
The advantage the Patriots once enjoyed with White was gone. No one else stepped up to be the dangerous matchup, so Edelman and White were largely neutralized.
The Patriots, after losing Gronkowski to retirement, didn't do anything in the 2019 offseason to help in that area. Dontrelle Inman, Demaryius Thomas and Maurice Harris didn't make the roster. First-round pick N'Keal Harry and tight end Matt LaCosse couldn't stay on the field. When the run blocking took a huge step back, the Patriots were stuck in the mud. It's why the team was desperate enough to go get Antonio Brown — he would have been the (needed) third triplet to Edelman and White.
After again doing little this offseason — and swapping Jarrett Stidham/Brian Hoyer for Brady — is there any hope it will be better this season?
It's true that the hope in Foxborough is that with health, better blocking, a better running game and more out of N'Keal Harry, Mohamed Sanu and two rookie tight ends, the offense can be better this season.
But this is also true: What else are they going to say, 'We're going to be worse and we're giving up on the season?'
This is what the Patriots have left themselves with, and they have no choice but to find a way, or at least have a plan to be better. It's akin to me saying, 'I hope that BSJ grows this year.' Do you expect me to say, 'I hope we get smaller'?
It's not even a question of whether it's realistic at this point. This is who the Patriots are, and they're going to need to find a way to be better.
Yes, better blocking will help immensely. If the running game is better, then third downs become more manageable and you convert at a higher rate.
But at some point, in the second half of tight games, and against the toughest opponents, the Patriots are going to need to be better on third and medium. That means more players are going to have win and be difference makers.
Going with the thought every team will go with the double Edelman/put a DB on White plan to start the season, someone or multiple players are going to need to pop to force defenses to respect everyone.
My list of players who have the most pressure on them to come through in order for the Patriots to be better on third downs:
1. TE Devin Asiasi: There is no easier way to open up a passing offense than having a viable receiving threat in the middle of the field. It keeps safeties from getting too deep, and keeps linebackers or sub linebackers from getting quickly into the flat to limit YAC (White). The Patriots were a complete donut in the middle of the field in 2019, and most of 2018. LaCosse is fine and serviceable, but the Patriots need much more than that. The rookie TE from UCLA has to come through for this offense or this offense has little chance to move the chains with consistency. This will be tough to accomplish. Even Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski didn't really impact the offense heavily until the second half of their rookie seasons. For this team, the Patriots need more and quicker.
2. WR Mohamed Sanu: He'll be playing in a similar area of the field as the tight end, so the reasoning is much of the same. The added benefit here is that Sanu should often find himself opposite Edelman inside the numbers. If Sanu is a threat — and he's nothing more than a possession receiver — on third downs, that means defenses can't totally key on Edelman. If they do, the QB can just go to the one-on-one match with Sanu. He had a rough first go with the Patriots due to injury, but he's better than what he showed. Will that be enough or is he just too slow? No one knows.
(Adam Richins for BSJ)
3. WR N'Keal Harry: Many would put Harry at the top of the list, but he's really limited in how much impact he can have because Harry is not going to run by anybody — meaning teams will not have to worry about putting a safety over the top of him. Harry, at his best, is slant/YAC and back-shoulder receiver. That won't create space for others, but it will help the team to convert more third downs. Has to stay on the field.
4. WR Damiere Byrd: There's much unknown about the free agent from the Cardinals, but just his speed (4.28 out of college) is sorely needed for an offense that didn't have any last season and didn't exactly add a track team in the offseason.
We pulled 40 times for every team in the league and projected their lineup in 11 personnel (1RB, 1TE & 3WR) for 2020 season. Here are the 5 fastest groups in the league: pic.twitter.com/Ap7soqpnJs
— Daniel Jeremiah (@MoveTheSticks) June 12, 2020
The hope is that Byrd can be a tougher and more athletic (overall) Brandin Cooks. He has that potential. The baseline is being more effective than Phillip Dorsett, who was fine ultimately as a possession receiver but he didn't scare anyone on defense.
If Byrd can earn more playing time and show that his speed is a concern, he will open up more space for others to be productive. But that's also asking for him to show a lot more than he did in Arizona.
____________________
That's the plan. Get something more — and fast — out of a rookie tight end, have a healthy Sanu be Edelman's Robin, have Harry catch a ton of balls on the outside, and have Byrd hit on a few home-run balls.
If all those things happen then, yes, the Patriots can be better on third downs and be more efficient on offense.
But there's a lot of hope, and the need for just about everything to go right, in that sentiment.
At this point, hope is all the Patriots have.
____________________
NICKEL PACKAGE
1. The Patriots have about another week with their offseason virtual program (with the rookies) and then everyone will disperse until ... not even Bill Belichick knows when camp is going to start or what it's going to look like. The league and the owners may be saying all the right things, but no one knows anything. The NBA and MLB can't even figure out a plan for rosters that pale in comparison. What's going to be the plan for 90-man rosters and dozens of coaches and personnel, who have to be in close proximity to function? No one has any clue, but what I talked about last month is already happening with other leagues. There will be some NFL players who aren't crazy about the conditions when they come back.
2. I asked one NFL offensive coach what they're going to do about huddles when they return to the practice field, at least to buy themselves some time. I figured they will not huddle — have a coach shout to, say, the offense while they have their backs turned to the defense — or use earpieces for every player, just to be safe early on. He responded like I had three heads: "We have to huddle. We can't play the game if we can't huddle." You wait...
3. Offensive tackle Yodny Cajuste has been part of the rehab group at Gillette Stadium and is expected to be a full go for camp. No, there are no expectations on what he might be able to do.
4. Mike Reiss' report that Sony Michel had another procedure and may not be ready for camp has to give the team great pause. This is now the third procedure he's had on his lower body since the Patriots drafted him (knee drain, meniscus surgery and now foot surgery).
5. What a great honor bestowed on Devin McCourty when he was named Boston Uncornered 2020 Champion, for his work on behalf of the group that provides resources for gang-involved youth to turn their lives around. Thought Tom Brady's words were especially impactful.
"I know sometimes you wouldn't think that I would be looking up to you because I'm a lot older than you, but the reality is I have, and I've learned more from you than you probably ever learned from me," Brady said. "You're a wonderful man. ... You fight for people that can't often fight for themselves."