NFL Notebook: What is the possible downside with Cam Newton for the Patriots?

We've made no secret of the fact that we hoped and expected the Patriots to add a viable veteran starter like Cam Newton at some point in the offseason. And that, also, given health, Newton, who was reportedly in Boston on Saturday to take his physical and sign his contract, should be the starter for the Patriots because his all-around skills give an offense with limited talent the best chance to be successful.

But we've also told you Newton will need to improve in some areas to be really effective in this offense, or he could leave the door open for Jarrett Stidham.

And we've also written that there's no downside to this signing, that it's a no-lose bet.

Actually, we've changed our mind on that now that we've heard more about the terms of the contract (still waiting for the official details). While we still think the chances are low Newton could have an adverse effect on the Patriots — the health issues that made him available to the Patriots at that price are the main insurance — they are still there.

I don't think there is a Randy Moss-like risk, where Moss started to sulk and took others with him. The Patriots, at this point, have way too much strong leadership in the locker room, compared to 2009-10. Matthew Slater, Devin & Jason McCourty, Dont'a Hightower, James White and David Andrews — the strongest leaders on the team with the most sway — will not allow this team to be knocked off track from within. I just can't see that happening.

But the risk with Newton is similar to what sent Moss into a spiral at the beginning of the 2010 season and eventually led to his trade out of New England: his contract.

How an issue with Newton could play out, and what I think could very well be the saving grace that virtually (but not completely) eliminates that risk for the Patriots:

As one Patriots source told me recently, "This deal isn't about this season for Cam, it's about the next four or five."

What that means is, Newton is still just 31 and should be in his prime. A good season and a winning season in New England will restore Newton's superstar status and either he's going to get his last meaningful large contract from the Patriots, or from another team in 2021.

But could Newton's bargain-basement contract (just $1.05 million in base salary with a ceiling of $7.5 million with incentives) with the Patriots work against the team with that in mind?

Here's a hypothetical situation I heard from AFC executive I respect:

Newton comes to New England and lights the world on fire. He leads the Patriots to 7-1 start and is mentioned as a strong MVP contender at the midpoint in the season. He's all over ESPN, and the cover of magazines (if they still exist). Newton is outplaying Tom Brady, and has largely restored his superstar status after three injury-plagued seasons. Some of the chatter now begins about his 2021 suitors and how much money he could command on the open market. A handful of teams, as always, will need franchise quarterbacks in the offseason.

Then, Newton sustains an injury that could go either way by continuing to play, say a partially torn hamstring or groin.

At this point, he could conceivably, if he wanted to, rest on his laurels and cash in, in 2021. He could look at the players ahead of him on the Patriots' compensation list and say, "I'm the quarterback and Mohamed Sanu is making six times what I am. How is that right? Why am I going to risk anything?"



Sure, some of the commentary would be about how he did the Patriots wrong, but I can guarantee you the Jacksonville Jaguars or Buffalo Bills of the NFL aren't going to care one bit if they desperately need a franchise quarterback to put them over the top. Newton and his camp would tell the teams their side and explain how it was not in Newton's best interest to continue playing.

This is part of the reason why I'm puzzled the Patriots made Newton's possible incentives so low. If they're all "not likely to be earned" (which is how they were able to fit him under the cap), they aren't counting against the cap ... so why not give substantial incentives to Newton for team accomplishments but also MVP voting, say up to $20 million?

If, for some reason, this type of scenario does come up, I would expect the Patriots to adjust Newton's contract just like that — by adding incentives.

How realistic is this scenario with Newton, that he could balk at pushing an injury? Not very likely, for two reasons.

One, a veteran player-agent I know basically scoffed at it.

"Football players play football," the agent said. "He wouldn’t do that. No player I know would, especially eight months after being on the street and realizing no one wanted him at starter money."

Two, this is where Newton's injury history works against him. The whole reason he's even available now and at that price is because he's failed to play 16 games in four of his past six seasons. He's also missed 16 of his last 18 games. If Newton said he couldn't play because of an injury, it would just perpetuate the thinking that he is now injury-prone and can't stay healthy. At the very least, it would severely limit the number of suitors in 2021 — similar to Brady having just the Bucs and Chargers after him.

I also think this was part of Bill Belichick's calculations when it came to Newton's final contract, including incentives — Belichick knows Newton has to stay on the field to maximize his New England stay.

So, again, do I think this scenario is possible? Yes, but a very remote possibility. Still, just as we're all happy to tell you every way Newton The Patriot will work and how great a move it is by Belichick, it's important to run through the potential landmines because there's always some kind of risk in every deal — even if it's not totally obvious.

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1. The NFL has sent out directives to the teams about how to handle training camp, but there is still much to be decided between the players and owners so I wouldn't put too much stock into them.

2. The NFLPA had a conference call with players and agents on Friday and I was total by multiple sources that it was "a shitshow" due to a lack of answers provided by the union's medical people. Multiple player questions about safety were met with dead air. Basically, from the players' perspectives, they're no closer to answers now than where they were in March when the pandemic first hit.

3. Among the demands on the players' union: no preseason games, and no 11-on-11 work during practice. In lieu of preseason games, the union would like to see three weeks of strength and conditioning, 10 days of unpadded practices, and just 14 days of real practice (10 max practice with eight padded) before the first regular-season game. I don't see how that can possibly get them ready to play decent football. The players also don't want mandatory hotel stays during camp or at home during the season (before games). This would change a lot of things in football.

4. I've already heard from multiple NFL coaches who are up in arms over some of these proposals — they feel there's no way they can do their jobs and get a team ready to play. Some feel that if those are the rules, the NFL would better off delaying the season months — and most feel the start of camp will be pushed back in any event. Here's the thing: NFL coaches have zero say in any of this. The players and, obviously, the owners have a voice but the coaches do not. They can try with their owners, but the league will always side with revenue over the game of football.

5. While I never rule anything out with the Patriots, I have a hard time seeing them having any interest in Browns TE David Njoku at this point. Once the Browns signed Austin Hooper in free agency, I mentioned Njoku as a possible Patriots trade target, but that was before the Patriots traded up twice to take two tight ends in the draft, Devin Asiasi and Dalton Keene. Njoku is making just $1.763 million this season, but his salary jumps to $6 million next season and then he's a free agent. Only if the Patriots know the rookies can't hack it could I see them trading a pick and paying an underachieving TE nearly $8 million the next two seasons. Njoku should just stay there ... they'll be using multiple tight ends a lot.