Before we close the book on the 2020 NFL draft for the Patriots, I have a few things left to get off my chest on why I was so underwhelmed with their performance over the three days last week.
Topics include: Kyle Dugger, Damien Harris & Belichick's history; not taking a receiver and making the offense wait; overpaying for Dalton Keene; and the over-reliance on Michigan players and the rise of Jedd Fisch. My grievances do not include not taking a quarterback, where anyone beyond Joe Burrow or Tua Tagovailoa was not an upgrade over Jarrett Stidham.
We also get into the NFL, typically, flying into the season with blinders on to the pandemic, and why it might be wise for teams to carry an extra veteran quarterback into the season amid the uncertainty.
But first, our airing of Patriots draft grievances:
1. Kyle Dugger, Damien Harris & Belichick's history.
I think Kyle Dugger eventually will be a good player for the Patriots. He possesses all the tools to be a better player than Patrick Chung, provided Dugger is as mentally as tough as the strong safety. He's younger, hopefully more durable (despite a mildly concerning injury history for Dugger), he's a more explosive athlete and is bigger. So it makes sense, considering Chung will be 33 this season.
But unless Bill Belichick knows something we don't about Chung possibly pulling a Rob Ninkovich and retiring as training camp starts, when is Dugger going to play outside of a few matchup games here and there? Players drafted in the second round — certainly 37th overall as the team's first selection — should be expected to be a starter by the end of their rookie season. Outside of an injury to Chung — who is a Belichick favorite — how is Dugger going to see the field (watch Chung get hurt in Week 1 and Dugger plays well the entire season ... bleh)? They already have Terrence Brooks as an emergency player and he'll be in the system for a second-straight year.
Why the need for Dugger this season or even next year (Chung, Devin McCourty and Adrian Phillips are all under contract through next season)? Belichick has drafted 34 defensive backs with the Patriots. Do you know how many have started five or more games as rookies? Six.
And four of those players (Darius Butler, McCourty, Alfonzo Dennard, Logan Ryan) were taken during a time when the Patriots' defense, especially the secondary, was severely challenged to get off the field.
Dugger is coming to one of the league's best defenses where no one (outside of the expendable Duron Harmon) was lost from the league's best secondary. If Dugger was drafted to replace Kyle Van Noy or Jamie Collins or Danny Shelton, then I could totally understand it. But this pick makes little sense unless the Patriots know something we don't about Chung. Dugger could be another Damien Harris or Joejuan Williams — players drafted highly at positions already stacked and they never saw the field for at least one season, if not two. How did their rookie seasons go? Think the Patriots could have used some help, last year and this year, at other positions ... maybe on offense?
When you factor in Belichick's terrible history picking defensive backs in the same round, the Dugger selection is downright puzzling.
(By the way, Chung's average Approximate Value his first four seasons in New England before he was basically pushed out the door to sign with Philly in 2013 was 3.0 ... it's 5.2 since was re-signed as a street free agent — he's almost been twice the player).
2. Not taking a receiver and making the offense wait again.
It would absolutely be understandable if the Patriots used the top of the draft to enforce the weakest positions on the defense since the offense with essentially a rookie quarterback will be, well, possession-oriented. Those gaping holes on the defense would be off-the-ball linebacker (Patriots only have Dont'a Hightower and Ja'Whaun Bentley at the position with any semblance of experience) and run-defending interior defensive linemen — unless the Patriots plan on Lawrence Guy and Beau Allen playing every possible run down.
Did they do that? No. They beefed up at strong safety (already four veterans at the position) and edge linebacker (where they have six experienced players). Could Josh Uche and/or Anfernee Jennings play off the ball? Sure, but they didn't do it close to a full-time basis in college and if these Patriots are going to be led by their defense, that side of the ball is going to be very complicated.
Apparently the Patriots didn't think they needed to worry about any of the glaring holes on offense with their first three picks ... since that unit performed so well last year. Yes, the entire crop of receivers is back and healthy for another season, but Julian Edelman is 34, Mohamed Sanu is 31 and heading into a walk year, and free-agent Damiere Byrd is on a one-year deal. So maybe, just maybe, spending one of the first three picks on a receiver might have been a wise idea.
The receivers taken between 37 and 91:
Laviska Shenault
KJ Hamler
Chase Claypool
Van Jefferson
Denzel Mims
Lynn Bowden
Bryan Edwards
Considering the strength of this class, just using a fifth- or a sixth-round pick would have gotten them a small number lottery ticket that might have hit big.
Add those names to the list of recent receivers passed over by the Patriots:
2017—Chris Godwin, Kenny Golladay, Dede Westbrook.
2018—DJ Moore, Calvin Ridley, Courtland Sutton, Michael Gallup.
2019—Deebo Samuel, A.J. Brown, Mecole Hardman, D.K. Metcalf, Terry McLaurin.
Don't mind doubling up on tight ends in the third round, although the bounty for Dalton Keene (next topic) was way too high, but waiting until the seventh round to address perhaps the most pressing issue on offense — a center — after taking two guards (where you have two players taking up 13.5 percent of your cap space already) and another undersized linebacker, is just a continuation of the last two offseasons when the offense was given the football equivalents of table scraps to make things work.
At least it was somewhat heartening to learn that trading up for a falling CeeDee Lamb was at least considered by the Patriots. So there is some hope for the future. Maybe.
3. The trade for Dalton Keene was insane — unless he's George Kittle.
The Patriots better hope that Keene, who averaged 19 touches per season at Virginia Tech, is the next coming of Rob Gronkowski or even George Kittle. Because the trade value was completely off the charts for a player who might very well have been available with either of the fourth-round selections used to take him, if not later picks.
To recap the deal between the Patriots and Jets, here is the trade with the trade value on an advanced analytics chart:
This is actually being kind. According to the old Jimmy Johnson value chart — before the CBA changed the value of rookie contracts and tradeable compensatory picks — the Patriots came out fairly even. But on every advanced analytics trade value chart, the Jets convincingly won the trade, as laid out by ProFootballFocus.com, which dubbed it by far the worst trade up until that point:
ProFootballFocus.com
Belichick is known for his smarts and being ahead of the curve in a lot of areas, including analytics with Ernie Adams. Apparently, that doesn't include the draft trade analytics because Belichick called the deal "an even trade" in this Patriots.com video. It's only close to an even trade on the old Johnson chart (he hasn't been in the league in 21 years).
From dining rooms & home offices to the 2020 #PatsDraft war rooms.
Behind the scenes of our virtual operation. pic.twitter.com/dyPF1rHAHu
— New England Patriots (@Patriots) April 30, 2020
Oh, but it gets worse.
That's only the value of the trade. The Patriots selected Keene with the 101st pick, which has a value of 5.2. So the cost of the pick (5.2) and the cost of trade (8.2) means that the Keene pick actually had a value of 13.4 to the Patriots. That would be the same value as the 28th overall pick. That's a little bit hyperbole, but you get the point.
The Patriots could have passed on Jennings (the Patriots have found the same players on the street or undrafted in the past) and taken Asiasi 87th, Dalton 91st, kept both their fourth-round picks and still come out way ahead.
Among the players the Patriots could have taken between 125 through their next selection at 159 (the kicker) with their two picks:
QB James Morgan
WR Gabriel Davis
TE Colby Parkinson
TE Brycen Hopkins
WR Antonio Gandy-Golden
OG Ben Bredeson
C Tyler Biadasz
C Nick Harris
WR Tyler Johnson
WR Quintez Cephus
QB Jake Fromm
WR John Hightower
Why the huge, out-of-character move up for the Patriots?
Four NFL execs were similarly puzzled over the move. Three said to look at players at the same position taken in the same round and pointed to the Packers' selection of TE Josiah Deguara with the 94th pick. "He's a similar move-type, multi-positional TE — and there aren't many of those around," one said. Perhaps seeing the Green Bay selection induced the Patriots to grab Keene when they could.
4. The over-reliance on Michigan players and the rise of Jedd Fisch.
Apparently Michigan is the new Rutgers for Belichick with the drafting of three more Wolverines (Josh Uche, Devin Asiasi transferred from there to UCLA, and Michael Onwenu) were added to Chase Winovich from a season ago. Apparently, situational pass rushers who struggle against the run make quite the impression because Belichick had to run out and grab more of his ex-teammates.
All kidding aside, Belichick loves when he thinks he has inside information on prospects from someone in his circle (Steve Belichick had the goods on the Scarlet Knights), and it has been Ben McDaniels' turn now. The brother of Josh McDaniels is heading into his third year with Jim Harbaugh as his quarterback's coach (apparently they're not big fans of QB Shea Patterson, who's still unsigned as of yet).
Hopefully, the intel is good, because it's not like Michigan has been a powerhouse of late. The last three seasons, the Wolverines underacheived in the face adversity: 2017, ranked 7th ... finished unranked; 2018, ranked 4th ... finished 14th; 2019: ranked 7th, finished 18th.
That's not Patriots football. Where have you gone, you Georgia Bulldogs?
Factoring into the Michigan connection is new Patriots offensive assistant Jedd Fisch, who's expected to be the quarterback's coach once football resumes. Fisch recruited Asiasi to Michigan, coached him as a freshman in Ann Arbor, and then was with the tight end for his transfer redshirt season with the Bruins. Apparently, Fisch talked up Asiasi big-time around the Patriots — more perceived inside information for Belichick. Just hope the coach vetted this one closely.
While plenty of NFL people have nice things to say about Fisch — and he is a really creative offensive mind — there are others who feel he's a bit of a power-hungry hanger-on in the vein of Jack Easterby, who doesn't back up his ability to talk. Fisch's detractors just point to his resume, and how no one keeps him beyond two years. Not sure if that's evidence of anything, but his frequent travels are accurate:
Texans defensive QC, 2 years
Ravens offensive assistant, 3 years
Broncos WR coach, 1 year
Vikings offensive coordinator, 1 year
Seahawks QB coach, 1 year
U of Miami OC, 2 years
Jaguars OC, 2 years
Michigan pass game, 2 years
UCLA OC/interim HC, 1 year
Rams offensive assistant, 2 years
Fisch is on his ninth job in the past 13 years. That kind of speaks for itself.
THE NFL, QBS AND THE PANDEMIC
The NFL, as keeping with its monolithic conglomerate personalty since Roger Goodell was installed as commissioner, is completely out of its depth when it comes to this pandemic. The NFL, under Goodell, shoots for revenues first and gets blasted for failing to ask the relevant questions at the time later. I have little doubt this will happen once again with the planning for this pandemic.
The NFL has no idea how it's going to play out its season as far as policies or directives, or when it's actually going to start ... so might as well release the schedule on May 9th.
The NFL is like a racehorse with blinders on — the people who run the NFL and the revenue-hungry owners who enable them only see cash flowing ahead of them, and they don't really care what could be running alongside them — or into them. The NFL, despite it touting its medical experts and whatever else, have no idea what's coming, and they don't really care.
Just sit and think for a minute what it's going to take, in terms of testing and fallout, from one positive test on a team, to put on one NFL game come the fall — let alone 16 each week. And don't even get me started on the "contingency" plans, one of which could call for a non-bye team playing 20 straight weeks without one bye week to win a Super Bowl. But, player safety is paramount we're told.
This is why it might behoove some smarter NFL teams to plan ahead at the most important position by keeping three or four quarterbacks on the roster who are capable of winning games. This is not going to be a typical NFL season.
Imagine an NFL starting quarterback tests positive for Covid-19 during the season. They're going to have to be quarantined for at least two weeks. Of course that can happen at any position, but NFL teams are built to get by when they lose players at every other position — you can even find kickers and punters on the street to get by. But quarterback? No way.
That's what makes the Patriots' decision to pass on veterans like Andy Dalton, who signed with the Cowboys for just $3 million guaranteed, even more puzzling (and don't tell me anything about the Patriots not having cap room for the move). You can want Jarrett Stidham to be the starter, even with no real competition, if that's what you want. But what happens if Stidham tests positive for Covid-19 during the season and Brian Hoyer is the only quarterback on the roster? What if Hoyer tests positive and Stidham is the only quarterback on the roster?
You may say this is needless worrying, that you can't plan for things like this. But Belichick always has Plans B, C, D & E, right? How's that going to work with just Stidham and Hoyer on the roster?
The 1987 Washington Redskins won the Super Bowl that season in part because they planned for a possible big bump in the road — a players' strike. While most of the other teams weren't prepared, general manager Bobby Beathard and assistant general manager Charley Casserly anticipated the work stoppage, that replacement players would be used, and they formulated lists and some scouting reports before the players walked out. Washington quickly signed 50 players to play as "scabs."
The Redskins went 3-0 during the strike, finished 11-4 and won the Super Bowl. The Eagles and Giants combined to go 0-6 and missed the playoffs.
A little planning can go a long way, especially when one game has the potential to swing the AFC East and a playoff berth this season for New England.