Before we close the book on the 2020 NFL draft for the Patriots, I have a few things left to get off my chest on why I was so underwhelmed with their performance over the three days last week.
Topics include: Kyle Dugger, Damien Harris & Belichick's history; not taking a receiver and making the offense wait; overpaying for Dalton Keene; and the over-reliance on Michigan players and the rise of Jedd Fisch. My grievances do not include not taking a quarterback, where anyone beyond Joe Burrow or Tua Tagovailoa was not an upgrade over Jarrett Stidham.
We also get into the NFL, typically, flying into the season with blinders on to the pandemic, and why it might be wise for teams to carry an extra veteran quarterback into the season amid the uncertainty.
But first, our airing of Patriots draft grievances:
1. Kyle Dugger, Damien Harris & Belichick's history.
I think Kyle Dugger eventually will be a good player for the Patriots. He possesses all the tools to be a better player than Patrick Chung, provided Dugger is as mentally as tough as the strong safety. He's younger, hopefully more durable (despite a mildly concerning injury history for Dugger), he's a more explosive athlete and is bigger. So it makes sense, considering Chung will be 33 this season.
But unless Bill Belichick knows something we don't about Chung possibly pulling a Rob Ninkovich and retiring as training camp starts, when is Dugger going to play outside of a few matchup games here and there? Players drafted in the second round — certainly 37th overall as the team's first selection — should be expected to be a starter by the end of their rookie season. Outside of an injury to Chung — who is a Belichick favorite — how is Dugger going to see the field (watch Chung get hurt in Week 1 and Dugger plays well the entire season ... bleh)? They already have Terrence Brooks as an emergency player and he'll be in the system for a second-straight year.
Why the need for Dugger this season or even next year (Chung, Devin McCourty and Adrian Phillips are all under contract through next season)? Belichick has drafted 34 defensive backs with the Patriots. Do you know how many have started five or more games as rookies? Six.
And four of those players (Darius Butler, McCourty, Alfonzo Dennard, Logan Ryan) were taken during a time when the Patriots' defense, especially the secondary, was severely challenged to get off the field.
Dugger is coming to one of the league's best defenses where no one (outside of the expendable Duron Harmon) was lost from the league's best secondary. If Dugger was drafted to replace Kyle Van Noy or Jamie Collins or Danny Shelton, then I could totally understand it. But this pick makes little sense unless the Patriots know something we don't about Chung. Dugger could be another Damien Harris or Joejuan Williams — players drafted highly at positions already stacked and they never saw the field for at least one season, if not two. How did their rookie seasons go? Think the Patriots could have used some help, last year and this year, at other positions ... maybe on offense?
When you factor in Belichick's terrible history picking defensive backs in the same round, the Dugger selection is downright puzzling.
(By the way, Chung's average Approximate Value his first four seasons in New England before he was basically pushed out the door to sign with Philly in 2013 was 3.0 ... it's 5.2 since was re-signed as a street free agent — he's almost been twice the player).
2. Not taking a receiver and making the offense wait again.
It would absolutely be understandable if the Patriots used the top of the draft to enforce the weakest positions on the defense since the offense with essentially a rookie quarterback will be, well, possession-oriented. Those gaping holes on the defense would be off-the-ball linebacker (Patriots only have Dont'a Hightower and Ja'Whaun Bentley at the position with any semblance of experience) and run-defending interior defensive linemen — unless the Patriots plan on Lawrence Guy and Beau Allen playing every possible run down.
Did they do that? No. They beefed up at strong safety (already four veterans at the position) and edge linebacker (where they have six experienced players). Could Josh Uche and/or Anfernee Jennings play off the ball? Sure, but they didn't do it close to a full-time basis in college and if these Patriots are going to be led by their defense, that side of the ball is going to be very complicated.
Apparently the Patriots didn't think they needed to worry about any of the glaring holes on offense with their first three picks ... since that unit performed so well last year. Yes, the entire crop of receivers is back and healthy for another season, but Julian Edelman is 34, Mohamed Sanu is 31 and heading into a walk year, and free-agent Damiere Byrd is on a one-year deal. So maybe, just maybe, spending one of the first three picks on a receiver might have been a wise idea.
The receivers taken between 37 and 91:
Laviska Shenault
KJ Hamler
Chase Claypool
Van Jefferson
Denzel Mims
Lynn Bowden
Bryan Edwards
Considering the strength of this class, just using a fifth- or a sixth-round pick would have gotten them a small number lottery ticket that might have hit big.
Add those names to the list of recent receivers passed over by the Patriots:
2017—Chris Godwin, Kenny Golladay, Dede Westbrook.
2018—DJ Moore, Calvin Ridley, Courtland Sutton, Michael Gallup.
2019—Deebo Samuel, A.J. Brown, Mecole Hardman, D.K. Metcalf, Terry McLaurin.
Don't mind doubling up on tight ends in the third round, although the bounty for Dalton Keene (next topic) was way too high, but waiting until the seventh round to address perhaps the most pressing issue on offense — a center — after taking two guards (where you have two players taking up 13.5 percent of your cap space already) and another undersized linebacker, is just a continuation of the last two offseasons when the offense was given the football equivalents of table scraps to make things work.
At least it was somewhat heartening to learn that trading up for a falling CeeDee Lamb was at least considered by the Patriots. So there is some hope for the future. Maybe.
3. The trade for Dalton Keene was insane — unless he's George Kittle.
The Patriots better hope that Keene, who averaged 19 touches per season at Virginia Tech, is the next coming of Rob Gronkowski or even George Kittle. Because the trade value was completely off the charts for a player who might very well have been available with either of the fourth-round selections used to take him, if not later picks.
To recap the deal between the Patriots and Jets, here is the trade with the trade value on an advanced analytics chart:
This is actually being kind. According to the old Jimmy Johnson value chart — before the CBA changed the value of rookie contracts and tradeable compensatory picks — the Patriots came out fairly even. But on every advanced analytics trade value chart, the Jets convincingly won the trade, as laid out by ProFootballFocus.com, which dubbed it by far the worst trade up until that point:
ProFootballFocus.comFrom dining rooms & home offices to the 2020 #PatsDraft war rooms.
Behind the scenes of our virtual operation. pic.twitter.com/dyPF1rHAHu
— New England Patriots (@Patriots) April 30, 2020
