Where will the Celtics finish in the East playoff race?

For weeks, the Celtics have had their eyes on the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference as a regular-season goal to ensure an easier path to the second round of the postseason. However, after dropping four of their last five games amid injuries and late-game miscues, the C’s now find themselves dropping closer to the rest of the Eastern Conference pack than the No. 2 seed.

Toronto’s win over the Kings on Sunday night put them a full three games ahead of the Celtics with just 19 games remaining in the regular season. The bigger problem for Boston in the present may be holding on to the No. 3 seed after the C's latest slide. The Miami Heat closed within 1.5 games of the spot after beating the Wizards on Sunday night, putting them in the running for the No. 3 spot after a trade deadline skid.

With injury issues and varying strength of schedules remaining across the East, let’s take stock of where the Celtics could end up opening the postseason next month in a wide-open Eastern Conference.

2. Raptors: (46-18)
Games remaining: 18 (Home: 9 Away: 9)
Games vs. teams ‘fighting’ for playoff spots or positioning: 11
Opponents’ winning percentage: .521 (10th-toughest in NBA)
Tiebreaker: Celtics hold 2-1 lead (@ TOR on March 20)
Analysis: Few teams in the East have dealt with more injuries to their core than the defending champions, but they have overcome those issues with flying colors over the past two months with .700 basketball. That run, which included 15 straight wins, has allowed them to keep a stranglehold on the No. 2 seed despite some stellar play from the Celtics. Now, a return to full health appears imminent as Fred VanVleet is the only remaining injured rotation player on the roster. A win against the Celtics on March 20 in Toronto would effectively wrap up the No. 2 seed for them, barring disaster, since they would also earn the tiebreaker with Boston due to superior division record.

If the Celtics do manage to put things back together in the coming week once Jaylen Brown returns to the fold, their time to make a move against Toronto will come in late March. A brutal four-game stretch for the Raptors (@ PHI, vs. BOS, vs. DEN, vs. LAL) provides a potential stumbling block, along with back-to-back games against Milwaukee to begin April. If Toronto comes out of those matchups with a .500 record or better, there shouldn’t be many more opportunities to play catch-up — with five of six opponents to close the season looming with below .500 records.

Odds of keeping 2 seed: 85 percent
Odds of 3 seed: 15 percent

3. Celtics: (42-21, 3.5 GB)
Games remaining: 19 (Home: 9 Away: 10)
Games vs. teams ‘fighting’ for playoff spots or positioning: 11
Opponents’ winning percentage: .499 (17th-toughest in NBA)
Analysis: After a brutally tough two-month stretch of the schedule, the Celtics will finally get a chance to breathe a little bit after a trip to Milwaukee this week. Beyond a trip to Toronto next Friday, the Celtics will face only sub .500 teams until Miami on April 1st, giving them a window to close the gap on the Raptors in the standings after digging themselves a three-game hole.

Jaylen Brown’s return to the lineup from a hamstring strain will come on Thursday against the Bucks at the earliest, while the C’s will likely be shorthanded on one-half of the remaining back-to-backs if the rest plan for Kemba Walker remains in place. Any hope of making a run begins on March 20th though with a critical swing game in Toronto. If the C’s drop that one, the coaching staff can probably worry about managing minutes more ahead of the postseason for the entire starting five rather than chasing wins that won’t make a meaningful difference in the standings.

While the No. 3 seed may be preferable to avoid Milwaukee in the second round, a lack of certainty about whether the Pacers or Sixers will be the No. 6 (one game difference at the moment) makes the No. 3 or 4 spot in the East for the first round a coin flip about which spot will be an easier matchup. The only certain way for the Celtics to avoid the Sixers in the first round is to nab the No. 2 seed but that may no longer be an option if this group continues to slide next week. The fact is this group may need to work just as hard to hold onto the No. 3 seed against a charging Heat squad (more on them below).
Odds of 2 seed: 15 percent
Odds of keeping 3 seed: 45 percent
Odds of 4 seed: 40 percent

Heat: (41-23, 4.5 GB of TOR)
Games remaining: 18 (Home: 10 Away: 8)
Games vs. teams ‘fighting’ for playoff spots or positioning: 8
Opponents’ winning percentage: .485 (20th-toughest in NBA)
Tiebreaker: Celtics hold 2-0 lead (2 games remaining in MIA, BOS)
Analysis: After dropping seven of nine games around the trade deadline to stumble in the standings, Miami has righted the ship of late, winning four of its last five games, including a big home win over the Bucks. That run has opened the door for them to re-enter the race for the No. 3 seed as they have made up three games on the Celtics in the past week alone.

Look for that deficit to be trimmed even further in the next week with home dates against the Hornets, Knicks and Bulls on the horizon and the return to the lineup for a healthy Jae Crowder. Things toughen up a bit for Miami in late March with matchups against the Bucks, Nuggets and the Celtics but two head-to-head matchups remaining against Boston will give them a chance to close the gap in the standings amid an easier schedule than the C’s. With a far deeper bench than Boston to withstand injuries to their core, April 1 and 11 will become the next crucial dates on the Celtics' calendar if they can’t keep up with the Raptors. With one of those matchups for Boston on the second half of a back-to-back in the last weekend of the regular season, the C’s would be wise to leave themselves some margin for error in the standings. Otherwise, a potential second-round date with Bucks could be on the horizon for Boston from the 4/5 spot.

Odds of moving up to 3 seed: 40 percent
Odds of keeping 4 seed: 60 percent

What about the Pacers and Sixers?

Indiana is dealing with major injuries to its backcourt (Malcolm Brogdon, Jeremy Lamb) and the Sixers have two stars out for now in Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid, so a sizable lead on Indy (3.5 GB) and Philly (4.5 GB) for the No. 3 seed combined with those injuries should give the C’s enough of a cushion on both to avoid worrying about falling to any lower than the No. 4 seed. Given how tight both teams are in the standings though, it’s anyone’s guess at this point where each will finish in the 5/6 East slots.

For now, the Celtics have very little margin of error in the race for the No. 2 seed. If they fall out of that race, they will have little control over what lies ahead for them in the East playoff picture beyond maintaining home court in the first round.