5 questions for Bruins ahead of ‘measuring stick’ matchups against Lightning

It’s been over 80 days since the Bruins and Lightning have met on the ice. As to be expected, plenty has changed since then.

Boston has sat atop the Atlantic Division standings for most of the 2019-20 campaign, but Bruce Cassidy’s roster is a bit different from the one that fell to Tampa, 3-2, back on Dec. 12. Ondrej Kase and Nick Ritchie have been encouraging in the B’s middle-six grouping since getting scooped up from the Ducks at the end of February, while Jeremy Lauzon has shored up the vacancy on Boston’s third D pairing. 

Tampa Bay might have had a slow start to the year, but a team that entered the Christmas break with a pedestrian record of 18-13-4 has managed to close the gap against Boston since the calendar turned to 2020. Since returning from the holidays, Tampa Bay has gone 23-6-1 — pretty impressive, considering that the Bolts have only won once in their last five games. 

While Tampa’s recent downturn has allowed Boston to build itself a seven-point cushion for first place in both the division and the entire Eastern Conference, Cassidy isn’t viewing Tuesday and Saturday’s bouts with the Bolts as potential knockout punches in the race for the top seed.

“I look at it more as we haven’t seen them in a long time,” Cassidy said. “Tampa has been a really strong team since I’ve been here. So for us, it’s a measuring stick, or ‘Here’s one of the best teams in our division.’ I put us in that category as well. Let’s see what they got. Less so about ‘Hey, if we win this, we’re going to be’ — starting to count down. That to me would be great, don’t get me wrong. But to me, it’s more of where we are against this team. Good solid team and how do we match up against them. We’ve got some newer bodies, Lauzon … can he handle his assignment, etc. That’s how I’m looking at it.”

With two key matchups against Tampa on the docket this week, here are five questions facing the Bruins ahead of their anticipated rematches: 

1. How does Steven Stamkos’ injury affect Lightning’s odds at toppling Boston? 

Jon Cooper’s club has many ways to beat you. Through 65 games this season, Tampa ranks:

2nd in NHL in goals per game (3.51)
3rd in 5v5 scoring chances per 60 minutes (29.26)
6th in 5v5 expected goals per 60 minutes (2.44)
7th in power-play success rate (23.8)
9th in goals against per game (2.81)

Up front, many of the usual suspects such as Nikita Kucherov (80 points in 63 games) and Brayden Point (60 points) remain, but Tampa Bay’s efficient offense is set to take a major hit for the foreseeable future, as captain Steven Stamkos is set to miss at least 6-8 weeks due to core muscle surgery. These recovery timetables can vary from player to player, but barring any setbacks or remarkable recoveries, it seems like a given that Stamkos will be knocked out of game action until the postseason begins. 

Stamkos’ impact on this Tampa club is evident — even beyond his impressive baseline stats (29 goals, 66 points in 57 games). Tampa’s shot rates, especially in the slot, have spiked when Stamkos has been on the ice this season, while the pivot will also be missed as far as faceoffs go (54.3% this season). 



Still, even if Tampa’s shot rates might take a hit with their captain out of the lineup, the impact graph does make note of the fact that a loaded team like the Lightning still are well above the league average when it comes to generating quality looks on net. 

“It’s tough for him to be out of the lineup, but they just have so much depth that I really don’t think it’s gonna affect the team that much, because they’re so deep,” Brad Marchand said of Stamkos. “He’s a hell of a player and you can’t replace him, but when you have a team like Tampa, you find ways to win, regardless who is in or out of the lineup. You’ve seen it with our team. We’ve done it before with Bergy and Pasta and Zee and guys like that. They’re going to be the same, they’re gonna find ways to win games and be a very competitive team.”

Stamkos has historically feasted against the Bruins — tallying 23 goals and 34 total points in 41 career games against Boston — but Tampa’s offense is still awfully effective even without its captain. 

Kucherov, Point and Victor Hedman on the blue line (53 points in 63 games) might remain as the primary drivers of offense, but the strides made by youngsters like Anthony Cirelli (42 points in 63 games) and Mikhail Sergachev (32 points in 65 games) and the overall balance of Tampa’s roster (13 players with at least 15 points) make this offense far from a top-heavy grouping. 

2. Are the Bruins braced for a heavier Tampa team? 

After getting manhandled by the likes of Josh Anderson, David Savard and a hard-nosed Columbus crew during last year's embarrassing playoff exit, the Lightning and GM Julien BriseBois appeared to get the memo.

While Tampa might be known more for its speed and skill, especially up front, BriseBois has prioritized size and snarl as key pickups this season — starting this summer when he added 235-pound power forward Patrick Maroon — fresh off of winning the Stanley Cup with his hometown St. Louis Blues.

The Lightning continued to beef up its roster ahead of the trade deadline — making one of the top moves in February by dealing for Devils winger Blake Coleman. Coleman might be one of the more underrated wingers in the NHL as far as offensive production goes, but the forward is also more than happy to leave a few welts against the opposition as well, as he's well on his way to recording 20 goals and 200 hits for the second season in a row.

Tampa also surrendered a first-round pick to snag bruising forward Barclay Goodrow from San Jose, where the winger managed to tally 24 points and dish out 140 hits over 62 games.

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"Goodrow is a big body, obviously Maroon is as well," Cassidy said. "Maybe they have more speed at the bottom and that’s where Yanni Gourde started, kind of down there and he’s a different player, good player. More offensively minded, very hard on the puck. I think that’s what they want eventually anyway. Whether it’s a 6-foot-2 (skater) or 30 pounds heavier, they want guys that are competitive on the puck. They do push the pace and they have their speed.

"(Mitchell) Stephens, that guy can really motor. (Mathieu) Joseph comes in there and can really skate. It’s certainly, organizationally, I think they don’t want to get away from that. They’ve added a couple of bigger pieces. They could be the Columbus effect from last year. I can’t answer that. But as a guy that enjoys hockey and just enjoys paying attention, I assume there was some discussion about that after that series and that’s probably why they’ve added some bigger guys. Washington is a big team. Whether they consider us big or not, I think we are, so they probably look at as, ‘These are some teams we might bump up against.'"

Boston caught some flak earlier this season for failing to match the physical response doled out by teams such as the Blue Jackets and Capitals, but the B's have managed to right the ship more in that area of the game as of late — especially with the additions of bigger bodies like Ritchie and Lauzon to the lineup. They may not be the Big Bad Bruins — or even the bruising B's of the early 2010s — but this Bruins club should be ready to respond to whatever a heavier Tampa team throws at them.

3. Who will slow down Tampa's big guns? 

Stamkos' absence does hurt the Lightning in one key area for Cooper and his staff —  as the captain's presence did give Tampa the luxury of spreading the wealth on offense throughout its top-six forward corps.

In the one game since Stamkos' injury, the Lightning opted to go top-heavy up front, stringing Point, Kucherov and Ondrej Palat together on their top line. That could make things easier for the Bruins as far as matchups are concerned, although whatever forward line is assigned the duty of stymieing Kucherov and Co. still faces a tall task.

The two-way potential of Patrice Bergeron's line makes plenty of sense when it comes to limiting the production of Tampa's top forward grouping, but Sean Kuraly and the B's fourth line could also be staring at some extended minutes. That checking line has struggled at times with consistency this season, but often rose to the occasion last postseason when it came to hemming in top-six forwards off of a furious forecheck.

Earlier this season, Kuraly and Co. earned the lion's share of minutes against a line of Kucherov-Point-Stamkos during Boston's shootout loss to Tampa on Oct. 17. In 9:28 of 5v5 ice time in which Kuraly and Kucherov were both on the ice at the same time, the Lightning did manage to score a 5v5 tally, but Boston also held a slim 7-6 edge in shots on goal during that stretch — not too shabby, given the disparity in terms of O-zone firepower between both lines.

With Chris Wagner expected to return to the lineup on Tuesday after a one-game absence, looking for Boston's fourth line to get some major reps this week against whatever big guns Tampa has up front. With playoff hockey a little more than a month away, a good showing from that unit against the Bolts could assuage many concerns about the fourth line going forward.

“It’s tough — they’re obviously so highly skilled," Kuraly said of limiting Tampa's top line. "But I think for us, the biggest thing is playing defense as a group of five. We kind of cover each other up. When we make our mistakes, a couple of guys are gonna have to make a mistake for them to score. For them, too, we always try to focus on our checking and checking well against them. We know that we have enough skill and talent that we’ll score enough goals. It’s usually a better game for us if it’s tight defensively and we’re playing a good, solid group of five — both offense and defense.”

4. Can Boston's power play click? 

Boston's power play is still one of the most lethal special-teams units in the NHL, ranking second in the league with a 25.5% success rate. But over the last 10 games, the B's man-advantage has struggled at times with clicking at its full potential — cashing in on four of its last 24 5v4 bids. Now, converting on over 16% of your power-play chances is still pretty solid, but if Boston wants to maximize the damage it can land against the Bolts and their 11th-ranked PK (81.7%), the Bruins are going to have to generate much more when a Lightning skater is sent to the sin bin. Look for Charlie Coyle to continue to get looks as Boston's new net-front option on PP1, given his ability to both recover loose pucks and extend O-zone possessions when in control of the biscuit. Special teams has the potential to serve as Boston's trump card in these two matchups against Tampa, especially with Boston's penalty kill negating 83.3% of opposing power plays over this same 10-game stretch.

5. Who's going to show up in middle-6 grouping? 

At this point, we should know what to expect from some of the usual suspects on Boston's roster. Go down the list — Bergeron, Pastrnak, Marchand, Chara, Carlo, McAvoy, Rask, etc.

What Boston still doesn't have a gauge on are the players further down in the lineup — players, that, if start to settle into a groove, could put this team over the top against Tampa and whatever else they might face. Boston's new second line of David Krejci, Ritchie and Kase should remain intact for another game — with Cassidy noting on Monday that he was pleased with the effort that grouping put forward in Boston's shutout win over the Islanders, even if they failed to get on the scoresheet during 5v5 play.

But on the third line, Cassidy is still looking for a solution to a line that generates plenty of O-zone time — but has struggled to finish said chances. It looks as though one of Anders Bjork or Jake DeBrusk will be the odd man out on Tuesday night, with both skaters switching in and out of drills next to Coyle and Karson Kuhlman during Monday's practice at Warrior Ice Arena. DeBrusk has been in the doghouse for some time now given his 10-game scoreless slump, although he might hold the inside edge over Bjork for now — given that Bjork found himself out of game action for struggling to match some of the physical play that Dallas put forward on Thursday night.

Regardless of who gets the call for Tuesday game, a breakout showing from DeBrusk or Bjork seems overdue, and could come at a perfect time for a Bruins' club that seems to finally have most of its roster trending upwards ahead of the playoff push.