NFL Notebook: Setting the stage for the Patriots' busy offseason by breaking down the free agents

We got the ball rolling on what should be a busy offseason for the Patriots with the five players with the most on the line in the postseason — basically the free agents who will be most in demand when the new league year starts at 4 p.m. on March 18. New England has 16 players set to become unrestricted free agents, and most of them have either started games or have been key players for this franchise, some for many years.

It's certainly setting up to be an active offseason for the Patriots, with the future of Tom Brady by far the biggest story. So let's give you a bit of a primer for what's ahead, layout the high cap numbers for those returning, and go through some guesses as far as the future for their free agents.

Estimated NFL cap space: $200 million per team
Patriots estimated cap space: $50 million (16th in NFL)
Players under contract: 47 (6th-most)
Draft picks: 12 (1st, 3-3rds, 4th, 4-6ths, 3-7ths)

HIGHEST CAP NUMBERS 2020

Stephon Gilmore $18,670,833
Dont'a Hightower $11,375,000
Julian Edelman $9,166,666
Marcus Cannon $8,822,916
Shaq Mason $8,712,500
Patrick Chung $6,508,333
Mohamed Sanu $6,500,000
Jonathan Jones $6,018,750
Duron Harmon $5,750,000

Analysis: Stephon Gilmore's set to be almost 10 percent of their cap, so it would be nice to find a contract extension that could lessen that after March 20. ... Dont'a Hightower will be entering the final year of his contract at age 30, but he seems worth it after getting his body to become more durable. ... Julian Edelman deserves every penny and a trade — should Brady end up elsewhere — which doesn't seem feasible with $9.5 million in dead money before June 1, and $4.2 million after. ... Marcus Cannon, Patrick Chung, and Duron Harmon would all seem to be possible cap casualties but Bill Belichick can wait until camp to see what they have as far as replacements.

UNRESTRICTED FREE AGENTS

Tom Brady, QB: The $30 million question. It sure seems like his camp and his words are saying that he's going to continue to play even though his Patriot contract voids and he'll become a free agent. Expect Brady to listen, but a lot of things (coach, offensive playbook, chance to win right away) would have to line up. Miami already has the offense in place. The Chargers and Panthers could offer Josh McDaniels and Brady a chance to do whatever they want. No one, even Brady, knows what's going to happen should he go back to the Patriots with a $30 million contract offer.

Prediction: STAYS (I reserved the right to change this ... lol).

Devin McCourty, S: He'll get offers, especially from the former Patriots' coaches (Detroit, Houston, Miami) and others, and the Patriots might not be able to match like they did last time.

Prediction: GONE.

Joe Thuney, LG: Patriots made their choice for an extension with Shaq Mason, so Thuney is as good as gone on a megadeal, likely to the Dolphins.

Prediction: GONE.

Kyle Van Noy, OLB: May not find a robust market because his skillset will not translate to all schemes. But the former Patriots coaches should be on his doorstep.

Prediction: GONE.

Jamie Collins, LB: Teams saw what happened to him when he got money in Cleveland. No one will get more out of him than the Patriots.

Prediction: STAYS.

Danny Shelton, NT: Had no takers when he was a free agent this past season — teams think they can do as well in the draft — so that likely won't change even if he's played well this season.

Prediction: STAYS.

Elandon Roberts, LB: Voted a captain this year because he's unselfish, works his tail off, and keeps his mouth shut, but he doesn't have a spot as a starter and he'll want one. One of the former Patriots coaches should come calling for him. Should also appeal to 4-3 teams. He's played it all and you could do a lot worse.

Prediction: GONE.

Phillip Dorsett, WR: With or without Brady, the Patriots need to keep some continuity with the receivers because the turnover is getting ridiculous.

Prediction: STAYS.

Matthew Slater, STs: He'll be tempted to return because he's played well and has stayed healthy this season, but the Patriots should offer him a chance to stay as the character coach, which he's open to.

Prediction: RETIRES.

Nate Ebner, STs: He's one of Belichick's binkies. He's here until he wants to retire.

Prediction: STAYS.

Nick Folk, K: If he finishes strong, the Patriots should give him a chance to compete in camp if Stephen Gostkowski returns.

Prediction: STAYS.

Marshall Newhouse, OT: Can't see him back unless there are a rash of injuries.

Prediction: GONE.

Ben Watson, TE: The Patriots need a complete revamp of the tight end position and Watson wasn't able to do the job this season.

Prediction: RETIRES.

James Ferentz, G/C: He'll be back to compete and possibly help if Thuney is gone, but the Patriots can do a lot better.

Prediction: STAYS.

Shilique Calhoun, OLB: Would be part of the effort to replace Van Noy, but some smart teams will come after him. Patriots should retain him and put him back in the mix.

Prediction: STAYS.

Ted Karras, C: Steady Teddy had some issues with run blocking but he's been really good as a pass protector. Can't see him having a robust market, and he can help with the puzzle after Thuney.

Prediction: STAYS.

Adam Butler, DT (restricted): I would think teams will have an interest in signing Butler to an offer sheet, especially if the Patriots don't tender him as a second-round level. Patriots really like him and he's shown a lot of improvement in his overall game this season.

Prediction: STAYS.

Jermaine Elumunor, OG (restricted): Kind of a waste of a fourth-round pick but if given an original-round tender, it would be a fifth. A lot of moving pieces next year, so I wouldn't count it out.

Prediction: STAYS, possible camp trade.

Keionta Davis, DE (exclusive rights): Belichick loves him for some reason, so he'll be back for camp at least.

Prediction: STAYS.

FIVE THOUGHTS ON WEEK 17/BLACK MONDAY

1. As soon as the Patriots lock up a bye, expect the fax to start rolling at One Patriots Place for permission to interview Josh McDaniels. I would expect the Panthers to be among the first. Owner Dave Tepper is known to be on the cutting edge and McDaniels is one of the smartest people in the NFL. Potential openings with the Giants, Browns, and Chargers would also likely appeal to McDaniels. The Cowboys should come calling but I can't see McDaniels wanting to be under Jerry Jones' thumb.

2. The rules for interviewing assistants on a bye are that they can happen, but have to be in the city of the coach. A follow-up can't happen until the team is eliminated or in the bye week before the Super Bowl. A dark-horse Patriots candidate could be Joe Judge. His now-varied resume will appeal to teams either now or later.

3. Let's play matchmaker with the potential opening and the coaching candidate that will likely land there:

Panthers: Josh McDaniels, Patriots offensive coordinator
Cowboys: Greg Roman, Ravens offensive coordinator
Browns: Mike McCarthy, former Packers head coach
Redskins: Marvin Lewis, former Bengals coach
Jaguars: Ron Rivera, former Panthers coach

4. Really bad luck for the Seahawks that injuries hit so late in the season and being without LT Duane Brown against the 49ers is huge. Probably more than any other NFC team, the Seahawks really need a bye and it will take all of Russell Wilson's skills to make it happen.

5. Sorry, but I had no problem with Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees being left out of the Top 100 QBs. Bart Starr has the biggest gripe, but I'm fine with this list: Sammy Baugh, Tom Brady, John Elway, Brett Favre, Otto Graham, Peyton Manning, Dan Marino, Joe Montana, Roger Staubach, and John Unitas. I might have gone Starr over Favre.