With the 2019-20 season officially underway, here is a hodgepodge of facts, stats, charts and predictions that revolve around the Bruins and their chances of putting together another deep playoff run next spring.
106.1: The average point total for teams the year after losing the Stanley Cup Final (over the last 10 seasons)
So much for the Stanley Cup “hangover,” eh? While a short summer and both the emotional/physical drain that comes from an extended postseason are often used as examples as to why clubs can’t replicate similar playoff results the year after a run to the Stanley Cup Final, most teams that come up just short of the top prize in hockey don’t drop off all that much during the following season.
While we omitted the New Jersey Devils in 2012-13 because the lockout-shortened season would skew the rest of the results from full 82-game seasons, just about every club that came up just short bounced back the following year with a strong showing — averaging 48.5 wins.
However, of those nine teams, only two made it back to the conference finals — while three clubs were bounced out of the first round. The last club to hoist Lord Stanley’s Cup the year after losing in the Final? The 2008-09 Penguins, who beat the Red Wings in seven games to avenge the ‘08 Cup Final, in which Pittsburgh fell to Detroit in six games.
Boston will be looking to become the first club in over a decade to replicate that feat.
$10.55 million: The total annual cap hit for Charlie McAvoy, Brandon Carlo and Danton Heinen in 2019-20
What once seemed like an offseason charted straight towards cap hell has been far less dramatic for the Bruins, who did not have to undergo any drastic, cost-cutting measures this summer in order to remain under the cap ceiling of $81.5 million.
The main reason for Boston’s ability to stay under the cap lies in these three deals that Don Sweeney struck with his RFAs — which is less than what the Maple Leafs are going to pay Mitch Marner for each of the next six seasons ($10,893,000).
Along with helping Boston avoid dealing away talent to save cap room, these new deals will also give Boston plenty of capital to spend in what should be a busy summer in 2020.
Charlie McAvoy, Brandon Carlo (Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
14: The number of forward lines that David Krejci logged at least 15 minutes of 5v5 TOI with in 2018-19
Jake DeBrusk
might have been a usual sight to Krejci’s left throughout the 2018-19 campaign, but the right side was a different story, as Boston’s second line struggled to find any semblance of consistency. Still, Krejci orchestrated a career year with 73 points over 81 games, and could have a regular contributor in at RW in the form of
Karson Kuhlman
this season. Still, expect
Bruce Cassidy
to continue to tinker with that top-six crew as the year progresses, including
next to his fellow countryman.
1.48: Brandon Carlo’s 5v5 goals against per 60 minutes rate in 2018-19
While it remains to be seen just how much Carlo’s game develops in the offensive zone, the 22-year-old blueliner’s new two-year, $5.7 million contract is a steal alone based on his play down Boston’s end of the ice. Scoring chances often tend to dry up when Carlo is called out for a shift, with his GA/60 mark ranking first among all NHL defensemen that logged at least 1,200 minutes of 5v5 TOI. That’s 87 D-men in total, including the likes of
Alex Pietrangelo
,
Seth Jones, Mark Giordano
and many more. Expect Carlo’s minutes to increase as Boston looks to ease some of
Zdeno Chara’s
workload.
460-342-100: The combined record of the 11 teams Boston will face in October
2,696: The total roundtrip mileage that Boston logged this preseason
That might seem like a ton, but when compared to last preseason, the Bruins have to be doing backflips that their itinerary this September only involved flights to Newark, Philadelphia and Chicago. Last fall, many of Boston’s main contributors logged over 16,000 miles alone during a nine-day trip to China — a sojourn that
Brad Marchand
Given their short summer, Boston should benefit from a much more relaxed preseason in 2019.
Brad Marchand, David Pastrnak (Brian Babineau/NHLI via Getty Images)
58.90: Patrice Bergeron’s offensive zone faceoff percentage in 2018-19
2014-15: 43.00%
2015-16: 44.91%
With players like
Par Lindholm, Joakim Nordstrom
and
Sean Kuraly
now tasked with eating up some of those minutes on the PK and during 5v5 play against top-six lines, Bergeron and his line can be freed up to dominate down the other end of the ice.
24: 5v5 goals scored against the Marchand-Bergeron-Pastrnak line in 2018-19
4: 5v5 goals scored against the Marchand-Bergeron-Heinen line in 2018-19
Danton Heinen
Brad Marchand, Danton Heinen, Patrice Bergeron (John Tlumacki/The Boston Globe via Getty Images)
11: The amount of “tired” games that Boston will play in 2019-20
Big props to
for this interesting nugget, which tabs Boston as being on the wrong end of a favorable rest schedule in 2019-20, especially when it comes to playing teams that have had a day-plus off.
0.92: Charlie McAvoy's 5v5 primary points per 60 minutes rate
ninth overall among NHL defenseman (min. 500 minutes).
The only players in front of him?
Kris Letang, Morgan Rielly, Tyson Barrie, Brent Burns, Mark Giordano, Shea Weber, Vince Dunn
and
John Carlson
. Pretty sweet company. Now fully healthy and far from his peak, look for McAvoy to continue to assert himself during 5v5 play.
72:07: Anders Bjork’s Corsi For Percentage during the preseason
Anders Bjork (Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
7.00: The 5v5 goals for per 60 minutes rate of the DeBrusk-Krejci-Kuhlman line in 2018-19
We’ve tossed this stat out quite a bit when it comes to highlighting the impact that Kuhlman had on Boston’s second line — and for good reason, because it’s a *bananas* nugget of information. While Kuhlman may not project as a top-six winger, the Minnesota Duluth product’s speed and underrated shot allowed him to hit the ground running with Krejci and Co. last year, with the 74-46-83 line ultimately tallying eight 5v5 goals in just 68 minutes of TOI together.
18.39: Jake DeBrusk’s expected goals rate in 2018-19
Of the 88 mid and high-percentage scoring chances presented to DeBrusk in 2018-19, the winger managed to cash in far above his 18.39 expected goals rate — finishing his sophomore season with 27 total tallies. Perhaps luck was on DeBrusk’s side, or it’s just an unsustainable statistical anomaly thanks to a 17.3 shooting percentage. But
tabs DeBrusk as a quality shooter when it comes to converting on the chances given to him, with the performance differential between his expected goals to actual goals ranking second in the entire NHL. Boston either has a very lucky shooter or a budding 35-goal scorer in 2019-20. Perhaps it’s a bit of both.
16.5: The goals that Par Lindholm averaged per season over his final two years in the SHL
Par Lindholm (Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
30: The amount of games Boston will play over the final 64 days of the 2019-20 regular season
15: The number of points David Pastrnak accrued through the first 10 games of the 2018-19 season
multiple times
Bobby Orr
Phil Esposito
Bill Cowley
Adam Oates
32.4%: Boston’s power-play success rate during the 2019 postseason
Boston might have come up just short during the Stanley Cup Final, but you can’t fault the performance of its power play, which operated at a near historic clip during the postseason. With all of the usual suspects back in Marchand, Bergeron, Pastrnak, Torey Krug and DeBrusk, look for more of the same production in 2019-20.
284: David Pastrnak's career point total through 322 games
Barry Pederson
Bobby Orr
Ray Bourque
100: Brad Marchand's point total in 2018-19
Peter Mahovlich
2: The number of knee surgeries that Kevan Miller underwent in the span of two months
Kevan Miller, Adam Lowry of the Winnepeg Jets (Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
13: The amount of games that Zdeno Chara needs to reach 1,500 career games
Only 20 players in NHL history have reached 1,500 games played. The B’s captain only needs two more games to pass
Wayne Gretzky
for 23rd on the all-time list.
$2.75 million:
The amount of money Boston could exceed the salary cap ceiling by with John Moore
on LTIR
62.86: The Corsi For Percentage of a D pairing of Charlie McAvoy-Matt Grzelcyk during the preseason
Charlie McAvoy, Matt Grzelcyk (Brian Babineau/NHLI via Getty Images)
74: The amount of points Patrice Bergeron needs to tie Bobby Orr for fifth place in franchise history in scoring
0.95: Connor Clifton's Goals Against Per 60 minutes rate in 2018-19
5: The number of shutouts Tuukka Rask needs to post to reach 50 in his career:
Rask would become just the second goalie in franchise history to reach 50 career shutouts.
Tiny Thompson
(74) is the franchise leader.
157: The number of 5v5 goals that Boston scored during the 2018-19 regular season
5.97: Tuukka Rask’s goals saved above average during the 2019 postseason - tops among all netminders
While Boston came up just three periods short of hoisting the Stanley Cup back in June, it’s hard to fault Rask’s performance throughout the postseason, with the veteran netminder closing out the Bruins’ run with a .934 save percentage and two shutouts over 24 playoff outings — leading all goalies during that stretch with a goals saved above average mark of 5.97.
When looking for the source of Rask’s lockdown play in the postseason, the netminder himself would tell you that a huge portion of the credit has to go to a player that didn’t log a single minute of playoff action in Jaroslav Halak — who allowed Rask to stay fresh by appearing in 40 games during the regular season in a backup role.
Look for Boston to continue to roll out a 1A/1B platoon in net in order to keep their top netminder fresh.
15.92: Chris Wagner’s 5v5 individual hits for per 60 minutes rate in 2018-19
While
Noel Acciari
led the pack in terms of 5v5 iHF/60 last season with a rate of 16.02, Wagner was right behind him with a mark of 15.92. Wagner’s offensive contributions (12 goals, 19 points) was a surprise last season, but his hard-hitting style of play was absolutely as advertised, and was missed during the Cup Final against St. Louis. Look for him to bring the hurt once again this season.
Carolina Hurricanes left wing Brock McGinn, Chris Wagner (Greg Thompson/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
5.97: Kevan Miller’s individual blocks per 60 minutes rate in 2018-19
12: The number of points Krug needs to reach 300 in his career:
Krug needs just 14 points to tie
Dallas Smith
(54-248—302) for sixth place in franchise history among defensemen in terms of scoring and 19 points to tie
Glen Wesley
(77-230—307) for fifth place among blueliners.
0: The number of pull-ups Boston asked its players to perform during its scheduled conditioning tests:
As Boston looks to stay ahead of the curve when it comes to identifying
best practices when it comes to off-ice work, the B’s strength and conditioning staff are doing away with exercises that run the risk of overexertion or injury in favor of routines designed to maximize and measure “power output.”
, and could help limit how many times Boston is bit by the injury bug in 2019-20.
David Pastrnak, David Backes (Brian Babineau/NHLI via Getty Images)
26: Years since the Bruins had multiple 100-point scorers on the roster during one season
While Marchand became the first Bruin since
Joe Thornton
to reach the century mark in scoring during the 2018-19 season, it looked as though No. 63 would have some company, with both Bergeron and Pastrnak in line to finish with around 100 points as well had they not gone down with injuries.
There’s a good chance that Boston could field a pair of 100-point scorers this season so long as the injury bug doesn’t arrive once again. If Boston accomplishes that scoring feat this year, it will be the first time since the 1992-93 season, when
Adam Oates
and
Joe Juneau
racked up 142 and 102 points, respectively.
2.09: David Backes 5v5 expected goals for per 60 minutes rate
While a summer
has Backes looking much nimbler out on the ice this fall, it remains to be seen how much it will translate into offensive production for the 35-year-old veteran this season. While Backes still has some value as a defensive forward that can excel on a north-south, checking line, scoring chances tended to dry up when he was out on the ice last season — with his xGF/60 rate ranking 25th among B’s players that logged at least 50 minutes of 5v5 TOI this season.
David Backes (Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
0.94: David Backes’ goals against per 60 minute rate in 2018-19
30: The amount of penalty minutes Brad Marchand accrued from Nov. 17, 2018 to the end of the regular season
While the pesky B’s winger still led Boston in penalty minutes with 96 PIM, he was generally on his best behavior down the stretch, only spending 30 minutes in the sin bin from mid-November all the way to the start of April.
Marchand still looks to get into the mix of things, but he’s at his best when he’s staying out on the ice and contributing in the offensive zone for Boston.
68: David Pastrnak’s recorded individual giveaways in 2018-19
0: The amount of preseason games that Joakim Nordstrom was able to take part in
While most of the Bruins’ forward corps is intact to open the new season, Nordstrom’s expected return is still a bit up in the air, as the versatile Swede did not appear in a single preseason game and donned a red, non-contract sweater during practices in September. Nordstrom, who is recovering from a foot fracture he suffered during the Stanley Cup Final, is skating with the group now during this road trip.
45: Years since the Bruins had three 100-point scorers on the roster during one season
If … and mind you, it’s a big
if that
Bergeron, Marchand and Pastrnak can all remain healthy and continue to their torrid stretch of production in the O-zone — Boston very well could have three players that might hit the 100-point scoring plateau in 2019-20. That hasn’t been accomplished in Boston since the 1973-74 season, with
Phil Esposito, Bobby Orr
and
Ken Hodge
tallying 145, 122 and 105 points, respectively.
(Original Caption) Bobby Orr (center, waving), flanked by teammates John Adams (l), Don Marcote and Bill Speer, are shown as their car is mobbed during a victory parade for the Boston Bruins down Washington St. in downtown Boston 5/11. The Bruins won the Stanley Cup 5/10 with a 4-3 victory over the St. Louis Blues.
14/1:
placed for the Bruins to win the Stanley Cup in 2019-20. The only clubs in front of Boston? Tampa Bay (6/1), Toronto (12/1) and Vegas (12/1).
21:05: Zdeno Chara's average TOI in 2019-20
2.72: Danton Heinen’s 5v5 individual takeaways per 60 minutes rate in 2018-19 - tops among all B’s skaters
5: The number of Bruins defensemen that have tallied 60 points or more in a single season:
Bobby Orr
Ray Bourque
Brad Park
Carol Vadnais
Mike O’Connell
6.13: Danton Heinen’s individual shots per 60 rate in 2018-19
One of the primary reasons why Heinen’s offensive numbers dropped off last season ? Well, getting stuck on a line with the likes of
Ryan Donato, Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson
and
Colby Cave
didn’t help. But getting pucks on net was also a struggle for Heinen, who ranked 13th among Bruins forwards with his iSF/60 rate. Don’t forget, Heinen is just a year removed from a 47-point season as a rookie, and has the tools to be a 50-60 point player on a regular basis.
We’ll see if his work this summer to improve his shot pays off. It certainly looked good on Thursday against the Stars.
5: The number of 5v5 goals that Boston tallied during Charlie Coyle’s 42:13 of TOI this preseason
Ask just about anyone in the B’s locker room, and they’ll tell you that Coyle was one of the most impressive players all preseason long. The Weymouth native certainly looks ready to go, as the pivot straight up refused to cough up the puck whenever he was out on the ice — using his 6-foot-3 frame to fight off opposing skaters and shield the puck away from sticks. Regardless of what lineup combination Cassidy rolls with, Boston’s third line is miles above of what is was at the start of last season — due in large part to Coyle’s presence in the middle.
16: The number of goals Brett Ritchie tallied in 2016-17
35: The number of games that Steven Kampfer played in 2018-19
49.4%: Matt Grzelcyk’s possession exit percentage last season
6: The number of shot attempts from the Bruins’ D corps that came within 25 feet of the net on Thursday
12: The number of teeth I'm predicting that the Bruins lose in 2019-20:
Ryan Donato
Noel Acciari
Cameron Hughes
Jack Studnicka
15: The number of shorthanded goals that Boston surrendered in 2018-19
While the Bruins boast one of the top power-play units in the NHL, it still does have its warts, especially when it comes to relinquishing back-breaking shorthanded tallies down the other end of the ice. Cassidy has noted that his PP1 unit tends to operate with plenty of “risk”, so expect a fair share of chances against once again in 2019-20. If it continues to become a serious flaw, look for Boston to roll out another D on the blue line with Krug.
253:
The amount of man-games that the Bruins lost to injury in 2018-19
4.31: Charlie McAvoy’s individual 5v5 shots for per 60 minutes rate in 2018-19
McAvoy is continuing to establish himself as an offensive dynamo from the blue line, especially at 5v5 play. But as he continues to round out his overall game, McAvoy should emphasize putting more pucks on net. He has the wheels and the hockey sense to create open shooting lanes for himself. Time to let a few fly. McAvoy’s shot rate/60 ranked 21st out of the 22 B’s players that logged at least 500 minutes of 5v5 TOI last season.
266: The number of career wins for Tuukka Rask - tied for the most wins ever by a Maple Leafs’ draft pick
With his victory over Dallas on Thursday, Rask tied
Felix Potvin
for the most ever wins — by a Toronto Maple Leafs draft pick.
Already Boston’s career wins leader with 266 to his name, Rask was drafted 21st overall by Toronto during the 2005 NHL Entry Draft, but was dealt to Boston in 2006 for
Andrew Raycroft
— setting one team up for their goaltender of the future and another with a black hole in net for close to a decade.
In total, the Leafs have drafted 37 goalies since the NHL Draft started up in 1963 — of which three have won at least 200 games — Potvin (266), Rask (266) and
Ken Wregget
(225).
45: The number of regular-season games played for Tuukka Rask in 2018-19
Halak’s impact was apparent last season, especially when it came to limiting Rask’s workload over the course of a grueling regular season.
By the time the postseason began, Halak’s play allowed Boston to keep Rask fresh for the playoff run — with the latter’s 45 games played last season ranking as his fewest since the lockout-shortened 2012-13 season (36 games played).
If we only want to include a full, 82-game slate, it was Rask’s lightest amount of reps since both the 2010-11 and 2011-12 seasons — where he was still a backup to
Tim Thomas
.
85.47%: Jaroslav Halak’s save percentage on high-danger shots in 2018-19
While Halak’s numbers might have dipped during his time with the Islanders and the porous defense they put in front of him, the netminder has always been strong when it comes to denying quality looks in front of him — with his
save percentage on high-danger shots (HDSV%) in 2017-18 tabbed at 80.38% — higher than Rask (80.37%) and other regular starters like
Connor Hellebuyck
(80.18%) and
Frederik Andersen
(79.01%).
With a much more capable defense in front of him in Boston, Halak thrived in 2018-19 — with his HDSV% of 85.47% ranking third overall among netminders with a minimum of 1,500 minutes of 5v5 play, trailing only
Jordan Binnington
(85.83%) and
Pekka Rinne
(85.77%).
Don’t forget that Halak also ranked fourth among all NHLers last season in goals saved above expectation (GS Ax) at 10.75. In other words, when looking at the quality of shots that came his way, Halak saved close to 11 more goals than what was expected of the average netminder in said situation.
Put it all together, and Halak measures out as a very strong goalie on his own merit, and a fantastic backup option in Boston. Look for him to keep the high standard he set for himself in 2019-20.
2:01: Average shorthanded time on ice for Sean Kuraly during the 2019 Stanley Cup Playoffs
As Boston looks to continue to limit the reps for the likes of Bergeron and Marchand on the PK, expect Kuraly to get even more responsibilities — especially after leading all Bruins forwards in SH TOI during the 2019 postseason. Add in the value he brings as a line driver on a checking unit (0.9 rush attempts per 60 minutes of play / 21 points in 71 games last season), and Kuraly could be poised for a big year.
7: The number of times I misspell Urho Vaakanainen in a story this season
86: The number of times "Game 7" is brought up to the Bruins this season:
60: The number of points I'm predicting Charlie Coyle surpasses in 2019-20
10: The number of trips I take down to Providence this season to watch what should be a loaded Providence team:
$26.3 million:
The amount of cap space that is projected to be available for Boston once the 2020 offseason gets underway:
Torey Krug,
C
harlie Coyle, Chris Wagner, Joakim Nordstrom, Jake DeBrusk, Matt Grzelcyk, Anders Bjork, Zdeno Chara, Kevan Miller,
Jaroslav Halak
500: The amount of extra seats added to TD Garden this season by way of a massive renovation undertaking
Ruh-roh.
9,000: A guestimate of the amount of GIFs and terrible jokes that will sprout up on my Twitter timeline from now until the end of June. Oh, hockey, how I’ve missed you.
Stats and graphs via Natural Stat Trick, Corsica, Corey Sznajder, Sean Tierney and HockeyViz.
___________________
OTHER NOTES:
Blake Coleman.
