Soccer Weekend: As Revs head to Orlando, a look at the Eastern Conference stretch run

As we enter this weekend and Match Day 30 for the Revolution, there are a few things to keep in mind:

Toronto FC is no longer right in front of the Revs. No, Wednesday night’s 1-1 draw with New York City FC pushed the Reds up to fourth overall in the Eastern Conference, doing so via goal difference on DC United.

Right now, three points separate fourth place from seventh, and five between fourth and eighth. Seriously, it couldn’t be closer.

Only one team in the East — FC Cincinnati — has been eliminated from playoff contention. Remember that things were so kooky in the East last year that the Revolution weren’t eliminated from contention until the hour before they played Orlando City in the 32nd league match of the season. It seems that's what's going to happen in September/October 2019, keep everyone alive until the last three weeks.

But the key to keep in mind as the Revs ready to play Orlando City for the fourth time in 2019 — preseason, US Open Cup, league — is the spacing between these two sides in the East: New England sits seventh on 39 points, while the Lions are ninth on 35. Only Montreal separates them (37 points). And with L’Impact hosting Cincinnati at Stade Saputo Saturday, we might as well chalk this one up as a critical six-pointer for the Soccer Sons of Robert Kraft — who, for the record, should make the trip to Orlando for this one with Jonathan before heading to Miami to watch the Pats on Sunday. I’m just saying.

We’ve already told you about Orlando’s playing style in past match previews — patient football, build out of the back, through the wings, yadda, yadda, yadda — so instead, we’re going to break down how we think the remaining four weeks of MLS will shake down for the Revs, as well as the teams around them.

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You’ll notice as you read below that I’m not counting the top three in the East (points in parenthesis): NYCFC (54), Philadelphia (51), and Atlanta (48). NYCFC and Philadelphia have already clinched spots, and Atlanta United isn't far behind. There could still be movement there, but unless Atlanta stumbles — and looking at United’s schedule, the only really tough game I see is against NYCFC — I don’t see them falling out of third of their own volition. They do have two matches in hand on Toronto and DC, and a match in hand on Philly and New York City. Philly could also lose two of its last five; the Union host LAFC this weekend. There could be some shifting, but not to the degree that it would affect New England’s placing in the table.

The current table, for reference:


Here is the stretch run for fourth through 10th in the East, with how I think each match will play out to its conclusion in parenthesis:

TFC: host Colorado (W), at LAFC (L), at Chicago (D), host Columbus (W) — +7.
DC United: at Portland (D), host Seattle (W), at NY Red Bulls (W), vs Cincinnati (W) —+10
Red Bulls: at Seattle (D), at Portland (D), vs Philadelphia (L), vs DC United (L), at Montreal (L) — +2
Revs: at Orlando (W), vs Real Salt Lake (W), at Portland (D), vs NYCFC (D), at Atlanta (D) — +9
Montreal: vs FC Cincinnati (W), at the Galaxy (L), host Atlanta United (L), host NY Red Bulls (W) +6
Orlando City: vs New England (L), at Houston (W), at Cincinnati (W), vs Chicago (W) — +9
Chicago: vs Dallas (L), at Cincinnati (W), vs Toronto (D), at Orlando City (L) — +4

There are loads of variables at play here: travel, i.e. East Coast to West Coast and vice versa, home/away fixtures, run of form, current place in the table, etc. Also keep in mind Toronto and Montreal have two additional fixtures in the Canadian Championship, and that may also play a part. What do I know for certain? That teams playing FC Cincinnati have W’s lined up.

Looking at these last four and in some cases five matches remaining, you’ll see that I have DC United comfortably making the playoffs. United is currently at 42 points, and the 10 points in the remaining four will put the Black and Red at 52. I have them edging TFC for fourth.

I also have the Red Bulls sinking and potentially not making the postseason, as that stretch run for the Garden Staters is tough: back-to-back matches on the short turnaround in the Pacific Northwest, and then two of the top three teams in the East. Decision Day against Montreal, in Montreal, may not matter for them at that point. They may be demoralized.

As for the Revs, I said it Saturday night, and I’ll say it again now: I can see nine points taken out of the 15 available. If the Revolution play to their capabilities that they’ve shown over the last four months, they can get those nine and make the playoffs.

And sure, New England has never won in Orlando City before; they nearly won last year, and held Orlando scoreless in the Open Cup through 90 minutes in June — and that was before they had Gustavo Bou lighting things up.

I repeat: If the Revolution can play like they have against weaker teams, plus maintain their home form against teams not named LAFC making the cross-country trip and play solid football in the last three, New England is playoff-bound. A loss Saturday can see the Revs fall below the playoff line. For good? Probably not, but it could remain there if results go against them (and to be fair, that really wouldn't be a bad thing, something I will expound on next week, maybe). The Revs had a solid period last month where everything came up roses even if their own results went against them, but a tough stretch is ahead for them.

The teams below them — should the Red Bulls and Revs falter — will see the opportunity and light breaking. I think Orlando, after it plays New England, has the easiest remaining fixtures.

Time will tell, and there’s only a limited amount of that remaining.

Elsewhere in the league this weekend

NYCFC hosts San Jose to wrap up this homestead while the Yankees are on the road — and that’s another thing: where does NYCFC play home playoff games should the Yankees have home playoff games? Do they make arrangements with the Mets to transform CitiField into Soccer Flushing? Or do they go to East Hartford again? — while Chicago hosts Dallas (Univision/Twitter for English translation). Also Saturday, Atlanta United hosts Columbus, Montreal hosts FC Cincinnati, Philadelphia hosts LAFC, and Vancouver hosts Houston.

On Sunday, Portland hosts DC United (3:30 p.m., ESPN), Toronto hosts Colorado, Minnesota hosts Real Salt Lake, Seattle hosts the Red Bulls,  and LA Galaxy hosts Sporting Kansas City (10 p.m., FS1).

In the USL Championship this weekend

Charlotte Independence (Isaac Angking) is at the Red Bulls II tonight, while Birmingham Legion (Brian Wright, Zachary Herivaux) host Saint Louis FC tonight. North Carolina FC (Justin Rennicks) is at Swope Park Rangers in the Blue Hell Saturday afternoon, and Hartford Athletic (Cody Cropper) is home at Dillon Stadium against Louisville City FC (7 p.m. start time).

A reminder: USL will go until Sunday, Oct. 20 — the first weekend of the MLS Cup Playoffs.

And in the Best League In The World

The Premier League returns this weekend following the international break, with Liverpool hosting Newcastle United in the early-morning kickoff (7:30 a.m.). The 10 a.m. kicks see Brighton Hove & Albion hosting Burnley, Manchester United hosting Leicester City, Sheffield United hosting Southampton, Tottenham Hotspur hosting Crystal Palace, and Wolves hosting Chelsea. At 12:30 p.m., Norwich City hosts Manchester City.

And on Sunday, Bournemouth hosts Everton, and Watford hosts Arsenal. On Monday, Aston Villa hosts West Ham (3 p.m.).

Enjoy the football.