MLB Notebook: Some thoughts on Dave Dombrowski and the Red Sox at a crossroads

Elections, Barack Obama once acknowledged, have consequences. And so, too, do hugely disappointing seasons, especially ones that cost nearly a quarter of a billion dollars to finance.

It's been five days since Boston Globe columnist Dan Shaughnessy wrote that he believed Dave Dombrowski would not return as president of baseball operations next season. Since then, there's been nothing said, issued or refuted by the team's upper management or ownership (oh, and the team heard boobirds from their faithful Saturday while the Red Sox were blasted 12-4, by an Angels team that had lost eight straight, to fall 15 games back in the division and six games out of the second wild-card spot).

Follow-up questions have resulted in either "no comment'' or outright avoidance of the issue.

Think about it: if the Red Sox truly wanted to send the message that Shaughnessy's reporting was without merit, they've had ample opportunity to do so -- and yet, have not. That silence, it would seem, speaks volumes.

Indeed, around the game, there is a consensus that Dombrowski will not be back for another season.

Here are seven thoughts on the subject of Dombrowski, his future and where the Red Sox might turn next.

1.  A number of people in the industry believe Dombrowski will be fired.

"I'm assuming that will happen,'' said one baseball source. "They're coming up on a difficult offseason and I can't see (the Red Sox) thinking that he's the guy to oversee that.''

Over the course of the season, the fact that no extension was in place for Dombrowski didn't go unnoticed. And now that simply qualifying for the playoffs at all is a decided longshot, the Red Sox have their "out.'' It would hardly make sense to have Dombrowski on the job this offseason if he's not going to see through the result of his work.

Similarly, it would be difficult for Dombrowski to go into 2020 without an extension place, serving as a lame-duck executive.

Among the items on the to-do list this winter: determine the fate of Mookie Betts, who is eligible for free agency after 2020; decide whether to re-sign J.D. Martinez if he exercises his opt-out clause; oversee the continued overhaul of the minor league system; and above all, for the immediate improvement of the team, fix the team's pitching issues.

"Dave's fine for when you're trying to win right now,'' said an executive with another team. "But this is a team that's sort of in transition and has some things to figure out. It just feels like this might be the time to move on.''

2. In an increasingly collaborative business, Dombrowski has tended to maintain a small circle of advisors.

Shaughnessy's report painted Dombrowski as something of a lone wolf within the organization, relying on Frank Wren and Tony La Russa as trusted voices, but few others. (Dombrowski, to his credit, communicates daily with manager Alex Cora and involves him in roster decisions).

Others in the organization, however, have felt shut out of the decision-making process, which tends to depress morale, and over time, leads to defections from the Baseball Operations department.

Another executive noted that, for someone who's been in the game for more than 30 years, Dombrowski doesn't have much of a "tree'' -- that is, people with whom he's worked and brought along. Wren fits that description, dating back to Dombrowski's time in Montreal and Florida.

But otherwise, Dombrowski has tended to operate independently, without a support network or band of close associates.

3. John Henry is tired of spending so much money.

Over the last two years, the Red Sox have spent nearly $480 million in player payroll. In one season, they got a World Series and a parade for their money; this year, they're likely to be left with a third-place finish and a seat at home when the playoffs begin.

When you win, the money feels well-spent. When you don't, it feels like a poor investment and total waste of resources.

At this point, with his myriad investments and accumulated wealth, Henry doesn't need the money. But he does have minority owners and limited partners to whom he has a fiduciary responsibility. Most are not billionaires, as he is. Most are expecting some return on their investment.

Which isn't to suggest that the path going forward will see the Sox operating as a small- (or even medium-) sized market team. But there's no reason why a team can't be a World Series contender at $200 million or so, while avoiding luxury tax penalties and competitive disincentives (loss of 10 spots in the amateur draft, smaller draft signing pool, etc.).

It's quite likely that the new GM/President of Baseball Ops will be told to scale back spending at least somewhat, allowing the Sox to re-set their luxury tax going forward.

4. Dombrowski and ownership were likely headed for a contentious contract extension negotiation.

Dombrowski's five-year deal, signed when he was hired in August of 2015, expires after 2020. On the day the Red Sox celebrated their World Series victory and had their victory parade, principal owner John Henry, without prompting, noted that the Sox needed to get Dombrowski signed to an extension.

When Dombrowski signed his deal with the Sox, it paid him somewhere between $2.5-$3 million annually. But Dombrowski has told people in the game that he expected to be far better compensated in his next deal, citing the reported salaries paid to Theo Epstein in Chicago and Andrew Friedman with the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Friedman is said to make $7 million annually and Epstein's deal may even top that.

Dombrowski's position was that, with more far more front office experience than both and two World Series titles -- Epstein has won three; Friedman none -- he deserved to be, at minimum, at the same pay level as both.

That could have resulted in an impasse with ownership. Now, it would appear, the two sides won't get to that point after all.

5. Dombrowski accomplished what he was hired to do.

In his first three seasons in Boston, Dombrowski won the AL East three times and won a World Series in Year 3. That shouldn't be forgotten.

When he arrived in Boston, the Red Sox were on their way to their second straight last-place finish. Ownership wanted a turnaround and fast, and Dombrowski supplied one.

He followed his M.O. — win now and worry about the future later. He made big, bold moves -- trading for Craig Kimbrel, signing David Price and trading for Chris Sale. To varying degrees, all three of those worked out for the Red Sox.

If he leaves the team with an inflated payroll and a farm system only now beginning to re-generate, well, that's on ownership, which should have known that would be the case.

6. The Red Sox will seek an experienced replacement.

Some have already begun speculating that assistant GM Eddie Romero would be the logical in-house replacement should Dombrowski be let go. But while Romero has the respect of many in the game, and his player development background and contacts throughout Latin America would be advantageous, several others believe ownership would view such a hire as too risky.

"I don't see them going with a first-time guy,'' said high-placed baseball source. "That's a tough market to do that.''

In all likelihood, the Sox would first seek to bring back Mike Hazen, who served as GM under Dombrowski before leaving to become executive VP and GM with the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Sox could, in theory, try to lure Hazen by offering him the position of president of baseball operations, but one source familiar with Hazen's situation doubted the Diamondbacks would let Hazen leave.

(Forget, too, about Epstein returning, at least in the near future. His current deal with the Cubs runs through 2021 and their window for competing remains open. He'll want to see this through. Down the road, a return to Boston can't be ruled out, but for now, the timing doesn't work).

So, who does that leave? Derek Falvey, a Lynn native, got his start in the Indians organization (as so many of the game's top executives have done) and has done a nice job as the GM overseeing the Twins' quick turnaround. The Giants' Farhan Zaidi — who learned under Billy Beane and attended MIT -- would have plenty of appeal to Henry, but is only a year into his job with the San Francisco Giants.

Could the Sox lure Cleveland's Chris Antonetti? He's a Connecticut native who attended UMass, so there are plenty of New England roots. And no organization has done a better job developing homegrown pitching than the Indians. He's been with the Tribe for 20 years -- would he welcome a new challenge?

7. The job may not have the appeal it once did.

The Red Sox have been a (mostly) successful organization over the last 20 or so years with four championships and two other deep runs to the ALCS.

But as one person noted, should Dombrowski be pushed out, it will mark the second time in the last four years that the franchise has fired a GM who won them a World Series within the previous two seasons. (Ben Cherington was pushed aside for Dombrowski in Aug. of 2015).

That perceived lack of stability could have some aspirants for the job thinking twice before expressing interest.

8. There's a certain irony in Detroit.

Just as the Red Sox arrived in Detroit for their final series before the All-Star break, the Tigers rewarded GM Al Avila with a multi-year contact extension.

Avila served as Dombrowski's first lieutenant in Detroit, and Avila, according to reports, knew that Dombrowski was about to pushed out in July of 2015, but said nothing. When he was named as Dombrowski's replacement, it strained their relationship for a time, though, reportedly, that's been at least somewhat repaired.

But since taking over the Tigers, Avila hasn't done much to turn around the Tigers on the field. They currently own a .310 winning percentage and are on their way to their third straight losing seasons. After losing 98 games in each of the last two, they're certain to easily top 100 this year. They're more than 100 games under .500 since Avila was promoted.

The Tigers' farm system, on the other hand, is ranked sixth by MLBPipeline, so Avila has successfully put the pieces in motion for the franchise's rebirth.

And he now has the luxury and security of a new contract extension, while his former boss seems on the verge of losing his job.