The Celtics have made a habit of overachieving in the postseason during Brad Stevens’ tenure as head coach.
2015: Danny Ainge traded away half the roster during the season but Stevens manages to make the playoffs anyway.
2016: A tough bracket draw after the Celtics lost a four-way tiebreaker for the No. 3 seed and faced the Hawks without an injured Avery Bradley for the final five games of the series.
2017 and 2018: The past two seasons have been defined by exceeding modest expectations with a pair of runs to the Eastern Conference Finals. The Celtics have been the far less talented team in each round when they have fallen short against LeBron James and company, keeping a sense of optimism prevalent with the franchise even after a heartbreaking Game 7 last season.
Stevens has been playing with house money to a degree throughout each of these runs. The Celtics have been consistent underdogs during these successful runs, lacking the pieces in place to make a serious run at the title in any year, whether it be due to talent or injuries.
All of that changed as the team entered the Eastern Conference Semifinals in 2019. The Celtics start the series as heavy underdogs against the Milwaukee Bucks, but they shouldn’t be when taking preseason expectations into account. Ownership brought this entire team back and paid the luxury tax in order to make a run at the NBA Finals. A 49-win regular season has tempered expectations nationally for this group (understandably), but the goals internally remain sky high. Ainge has kept his chips in the middle of the table by sticking with this core through a tumultuous regular season, and the early return on that choice in the postseason looked promising in Round 1.
It’s hard to find a team across the NBA with more at stake for the future than the Celtics have this postseason: stopping the incremental progress of one of the most impressive rebuilds in NBA history. A reminder of the high stakes in place that will reverberate, perhaps for years to come:
Kyrie Irving: The All-Star has certainly been in a better mood over the past month as the Celtics ended the regular season on the upswing. A sweep over the Indiana Pacers helped things further. Still, we’ve yet to see serious adversity hit Irving and this Celtics team this postseason. Boston is going to lose multiple games against the Bucks and some of those may come in an ugly fashion. How Irving sets the tone in the face of those setbacks this series will loom large.
The bigger question with Irving is what impact this series will have on his future in green? Do the Celtics need to win to convince him that this is the place he is best off committing to for the long-term? Will a long hard series be enough? Will the absence of Marcus Smart work as a built-in excuse for a loss in the eyes of Irving? Will an improved version of Gordon Hayward against Milwaukee make Irving believe that this core is capable of contending as they stand? We’ve discussed the implications of Irving’s choice this summer at length already on BSJ, but the narrative about a potential departure for New York or Los Angeles will shift based on this series. Whether or not the Celtics can do enough in this series to influence Irving’s decision remains to be seen, but they can certainly hurt their case with an underwhelming battle against the NBA’s best.
Al Horford: The veteran’s future slides under the radar a lot, given the hoopla surrounding Irving, but his player option will influence the C’s future plans in a big way.
Whether or not he is willing to pick up his expensive option or take a discount in order to secure a longer contract/sacrifice for a contender is the bigger question that awaits. There’s little doubting his desire to remain in Boston long-term, but the C’s odds of contending will take a serious hit if Irving walks away, potentially opening the door for Horford to ponder a better chance at winning elsewhere. The result of the Bucks series should dictate a lot on this front.
Jayson Tatum/Jaylen Brown: The dynamic young duo will make their final case to the front office that they are worth building with instead of sacrificing in a potential deal for Anthony Davis this summer. It’s safe to guess one will be held onto if a deal for Davis ends up being made, but the implications of this round on the future of both are pivotal as the team evaluates whether the development of these two is enough to push this team into contention. Additionally, strong performances by both youngsters could influence Irving’s stance about his desire to stay in Boston or any pressure he puts on management to acquire Davis in order to secure a commitment to re-sign.
Marcus Smart: It’s hard to imagine Smart having played his last game as a Celtic with an oblique tear, but it’s at least a remote possibility if the Celtics don’t extend this series. The odds are that he will have a chance to be cleared by sometime next weekend seem to be increasing, but if not, he looms as one of the more appealing trade chips/salary matching parts on the roster. He does not have direct control over his destiny here, but what the Celtics do in this series may have a say in his future.
Marcus Morris/Terry Rozier: A strong four games against the Pacers have started to wash away the bad vibes from an underwhelming regular season by Rozier and second half by Morris. With a juicy free agent market potentially awaiting both in July, each will have a huge opportunity to convince suitors (and potentially the Celtics if a big trade is made) that their playoff-proven ability is worth overlooking their past few months. If that’s the case, the Celtics will likely be out of the bidding, but with the likes of Bismack Biyombo earning himself $17 million per year based on one impressive postseason run in 2016, a standout performance in a win against the Bucks should boost the prospects of both.
Second Round Series Predictions
- Raptors in 5: Toronto cruised in Game 1 and it is evident that the Sixers don't have a reliable big man off the bench that they need to protect the paint when Joel Embiid is resting.
- Celtics in 6: Full series breakdown here.
- Blazers in 6: They are the far more experienced team at this point and the Nuggets should be ruining on fumes early in that series after their battle with the Spurs. A lot tougher job for Denver to defend Lillard and McCollum instead of Derrick White and Bryn Forbes. Don't think they will be up to the task.
- Warriors in 6: The first round provided a much-needed wakeup call to the defending champs. The Rockets will put up a fight but their lack of depth will prove to be the difference.
- The fact that no one on the Spurs (besides Bryn Forbes) knew to foul the Nuggets while down four with 27 seconds remaining in the game is one of the most surprising things I've seen in an NBA postseason game. With their season on the line, LaMarcus Aldridge and Patty Mills were content to let their season run out. That will make for a long summer for both veterans.
- A raw deal for Igor Kokoskov in Phoenix as he gets shown the door just one year into his contract after spending the vast majority of his season without a point guard. Robert Sarver remains one of the worst owners in sports and it would be tough to convince any head coach to take a job there right now given how much turnover they've had in the past three seasons (four different coaches).
- Lakers list of head coaching candidates does not look very impressive. A couple of LeBron James yes-men (Ty Lue, Juwan Howard), along with Monty Williams and a long shot in Jason Kidd. The pressure will be on James to recruit some talent to Hollywood since those names are not going to do the job.
- Tough hit for the Blazers, who may be without Enes Kanter in the second round after he suffered a separated shoulder in their Game 5 win over the Thunder last week. Without him, the Blazers will have to depend on a steady diet of Zach Collins and Meyers Leonard to depend on Nikola Jokic with Jusuf Nurkic (broken leg) already sidelined.