The Milwaukee Bucks have been a juggernaut on both ends of the floor since the first day of the 2018-19 regular season. After dropping a hard-fought seven games series against the Celtics last year, the focus by the franchise to maximize the early prime of Giannis Antetokounmpo has gone quite well dating back to last summer. Mike Budenholtzer was brought in as head coach and revamped the team’s style on both ends of the floor with dramatic success (one of two teams in NBA with a top-5 offense and defense).
The front office has slowly added more options and depth around the likely league MVP all season long, bringing aboard George Hill and Nikola Mirotic midseason to go along with other offseason additions (Brook Lopez, Ersan Ilyasova, Pat Connaughton). The end result is one of the deepest rosters in the NBA that has cruised to an NBA-best 61-21 regular season record and a dominant sweep of the undermanned Pistons in the first round.
Unlike last season, the Bucks won’t have to depend on the likes of Tyler Zeller, Shabazz Mohammed and Jabari Parker to try to beat Boston. They’ve got the best player in the East, an outstanding offensive sidekick (Khris Middleton), and plenty of 3-point shooting talent around them. The Celtics are going to have their hands full and then some to overcome this talent on the road but there are still vulnerabilities here for the Celtics to prey on.
The Bucks Basics
Pace: 103.6 (5)
OffRtg: 113.5 (4)
DefRtg: 104.9 (1)
NetRtg: +8.6 (1)
BUCKS STRENGTHS
Scoring in the paint: Things begin here with Antetokounmpo, who remains the most unstoppable player in the league when he gets a head of steam within 15 feet. He led the NBA with 17.5 points in the paint per game, the most out of anyone in the league in 15 years. Only Shaquille O’Neal has averaged that many points per game in the restricted area per NBA.com. The mix of athleticism and length he has makes him a nightmare matchup for any team. The Celtics will use different defenders on him all game long and send help regularly in order to prevent Antetokounmpo from having a field day down low. Watch for the Celtics' defenders to step over from their man and have high hands while defending to try to dissuade Antetokounmpo drives.
It’s not just Antetokounmpo who is a problem inside the paint, though. All the attention he gets brings plenty of help defenders and that opens up easy baskets for others. The Bucks as a team took 37 percent of their shots in the restricted area (second in NBA) and shot 66.2 percent from their region. A lot of their bigs (Lopez, Mirotic) are strong finishers at the rim and the same goes for Eric Bledsoe and Pat Connaughton, who both shot over 70 percent from inside three feet during the regular season. If the Bucks get close to the basket, it’s generally game over for opponents.
3-point shooting around Giannis: This was the primary goal of the Bucks this offseason after having to rely on a flawed Thon Maker to stretch the floor around Antetokounmpo last postseason. The front office responded with a collection of stretch bigs (Lopez, Ilyasova, Mirotic) that force defenders out of the paint to guard them at the 3-point line. While the Bucks backcourt is the weak link on this front (Bledsoe, Hill, Connaughton all shot below 33 percent from 3-point range this year) everyone on this roster is a capable 3-point shooter. The Bucks took the second most 3s in the NBA, averaging an impressive 38.2 per game, executing Budenhltzer’s gameplan of a five-out offense effectively.
Every night defenses have to make a choice against the Bucks. If you stay home on shooters, Antetokounmpo gets to have a field day in the paint. If you help off of shooters, the Bucks have enough weapons at all five positions to make you pay. Even though they only shot 35 percent as a team (15th in NBA), this formula produced the fourth-best offense in the NBA during the regular season. Playing less mobile bigs like Aron Baynes or Daniel Theis against this type of offense could prove to be very problematic, something that will force Brad Stevens to pick his poison between less rim protection and more perimeter coverage.
Rim protection: The Bucks’ defensive scheme prioritizes giving up jumpers over paths to the rim and that strategy paid dividends during the regular season. Milwaukee allowed a league-low 29.6 points in the restricted area during the regular season, thanks to a league-worst 58 percent conversion rate by opponents inside of three feet. The Bucks' starting duo of Lopez and Antetokounmpo make forays into the paint a very challenging task, as the duo combined for 3.7 blocks per game. Lopez anchored the league’s best defense by helping protect the rim while also avoiding fouling while doing so. In addition to teams not finishing at the basket, they also aren’t able to create contact, as the Bucks allowed the fewest free throws in the NBA this year per field goal attempt. The Celtics have struggled to finish at the rim and getting to the line all year, so don’t expect much improvement in this area against Milwaukee when Lopez (2.2 blocks per game) is on the floor.
BUCKS WEAKNESSES
No above-average mobile bigs besides Antetokounmpo: The Bucks have a lot of options to choose from on the defensive end but when it comes to playing small in postseason basketball, nearly all of them have warts against a jumpshot happy Celtics team. Brad Stevens has seen Mirotic and Ilyasova the past two postseasons and has repeatedly targeted both in the post and on the perimeter. Ilyasova is the better of the duo defensively but he can’t handle Horford in the post and struggles with the mobility with quicker stretch 4s (Tatum, Hayward, Morris). The same goes for Mirotic. Lopez struggles to hang on the perimeter as well and the Celtics will definitely be making a point of trying to play him off the floor in this series. The one guy that can hold up better in this department is DJ Wilson, who is an unproven postseason performer but has far more athleticism than anyone listed. Whether or not Budenholtzer trusts him enough to go with him (he’s not a reliable offensive weapon) is worth watching. However, look for the Celtics to try to attack the Bucks in this area with their own collection of mobile bigs to poke holes in Milwaukee’s defensive scheme and personnel.
This is what can happen when you switch on to Kyrie Irving as well. pic.twitter.com/6IzKngvjBX
— Eric Nehm (@eric_nehm) April 26, 2019