10 pre-draft thoughts on Patriots and what they might do this week

Emptying out the pre-draft notebook and taking a look at some contingencies for the Patriots when it comes to team-building over the next few days:

1. If they want to go tight end and they end up sticking at the end of the first round, right now, Irv Smith, Jr. feels like the easiest pick for the Patriots at that point. Smith is a solid, safe choice for New England, really, anywhere between 32 and 40. Smith isn’t going to be an overwhelming offensive force on a Gronkowski scale, but I can see him having a career like Benjamin Watson — someone you could count on catching 40 or so passes a year. (A Smith-Watson combination at tight end is a good place for the Patriots to start at the position when it comes to 2019.)

2. If they are going to make a move in the first round, chances are best it’ll be with Oakland or Seattle. As we explained here earlier this month, when you consider the Patriots’ trade history, their good working relationship with each front office and the possibility for partnering up, those are the two teams that work best when it comes to potential trade partners for New England If someone they like is dropping — or if they want to guard against someone just ahead of them pouncing on a potential prospect, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them give the Seahawks a call for either No. 21 or 29, or the Raiders for Nos. 24 or 27. They did it in 2010 when they jumped ahead of Baltimore for Rob Gronkowski in the second round. If there’s a repeat this time around, a deal could very likely include Oakland or Seattle.

3. If there’s a draft curveball coming for the Patriots, it could be a cornerback. Things are obviously fluid and can change quickly, but word among some around the league is New England likes this group of cornerbacks. And as long as we’re talking about the secondary, the more I believe they are trying to figure out a way to get safety Johnathan Abram out of Mississippi State.

4. Here are the top 15 3-cone finishers at the combine this year. History tells us that at least one of these guys will end up in Foxborough.

1. Michigan CB David Long (6.45)
2. USC S Marvell Tell (6.63)
3. North Dakota State QB Easton Stick (6.65)
4. Stanford QB Alliah Holder (6.70)
5. Notre Dame CB Julian Love (6.72)
6. Northern Illinois Edge Sutton Smith (6.75)
7. Texas CB Davante Davis (6.76)
8. Notre Dame WR Miles Boykin (6.77)
9. Nebraska WR Stanley Morgan (6.78)
10. Clemson WR Hunter Renfrow (6.8)
11. Iowa TE Noah Fant (6.81)
11. Iowa S Amani Hooker (6.81)
11. Houston CB Isaiah Johnson (6.81)
14. Washburn CB Corey Ballentine (6.82)
15. Penn State CB Amani Orunwariye (6.82)

5. They’re going to come out of the weekend with a quarterback. It’s just a matter of when. Whether they dive in early or wait until after the draft and go chasing for UDFAs, the Patriots have been one of the most aggressive teams in the league over the years when it comes to drafting quarterbacks — they’ve drafted 10 quarterbacks since 2000, a sizable number for any team that has had such consistency at the position since 2001. (That doesn’t begin to take into account the undrafted guys like Brian Hoyer and free-agent pickups like Tim Tebow.) If they go late — say, Ryan Finley either late on Day 2 or early on Day 3 — some have wondered if it’s an indictment of Danny Etling. I wouldn’t necessarily see if that way. (Etling was lauded on and off the record this past year by his teammates as a conscientious rookie who was always in the film room.) I would see it as a way to create some competition at the position.

6. A few other notes on the quarterbacks: One, over the last week, I’ve hard more and more of a drumbeat for Daniel Jones to be taken in the first half of the first round, which would put him off the radar when it comes to the Patriots. Two, I’ve also heard more people I respect saying Finley would be a good fit as a backup here for the next year-plus, and watching his film, I’m starting to buy into that. (Maybe it’s just the fact this pre-draft process has taken so long. I’m not sure.) And three, the thing that continues to stick out the most about Will Grier are his intangibles. His OC said he had “uncommon maturity.” He has a wife and son. He’s made mistakes, but has taken ownership of them and done well moving forward. These don’t mean anything from an on-field perspective, but I think they speak to the sort of guy he is, and (perhaps) signal that he’s capable of learning and growing and evolving into a polished NFL quarterback, one who is even better than he already is. All things being equal, Jones is probably a better early candidate, and Finley might ultimately have a higher ceiling in the New England system (and could be had later). But Grier has a bit of an “it” factor that’s tough to quantify.

7. The Patriots have seemingly been in on just about every available wide receiver this offseason, but the presence of Josh Gordon and his future is indirectly tied to some of what the Patriots want to accomplish this weekend. (Him signing his RFA tender and an occasional check of his social media accounts underscore the fact he’s doing what he needs to do to get back. Whether that happens is another matter, but he’s doing what he needs to be done.) I’m not naive enough to think New England feels like it can rely on him this year for a full season, but regardless of what the Patriots want to do at receiver his weekend (whether it’s via a trade or the draft), if they can get Gordon in the building again for an extended stretch in 2019 and add another receiver in the draft, free agency or trade, that position will look a lot more impressive.

8. Here are a few guys who I’ve watched over the pre-draft process, and have just really stood out to me as good football players. It remains to be seen if they’ll end up with the Patriots, but based on their body of work and skill set, in my experience, these are guys set up to succeed at the next level: Abram, Long, Stick, Smith, edge defender Chase Winovich and running back Bryce Love.

9. One of my favorite quotes I think of every year at this time came from Mike Vrabel, who said he would watch the draft every year as a player knowing teams were trying to find some way to replace him. In the wake of the Patriots’ drafting Ja’Whaun Bentley and Christian Sam last spring, I brought up that quote in a conversation I had with Elandon Roberts in the summer. He smiled knowingly and nodded. Whether they admit to it or not, players will watch at least a portion of the draft this week with an eye toward whether or not the Patriots take someone at their position. It’s the harsh reality of life in the NFL — you’re always in competition with someone. Regardless of the fact that they have a Super Bowl ring, this year and this New England team is no different.

10. Regardless of what happens in the draft, please remember team building is a year-round process, which means there will be trades. (It sounds like Nelson Agholor could be had.) In addition, there are still an awful lot of really intriguing free-agent possibilities out there on the market. With the looming comp pick deadline early next month, a free-agent pickup won’t cost you when it comes to compensatory picks next spring. Here are a few guys who are still on the market:

Wide receiver: Michael Crabtree, Mike Wallace, Jermaine Kearse
Defensive line: Ziggy Ansah, Ndamukong Suh, Brent Urban, Allen Bailey