Bruins-Leafs preview: 5 reasons why the Bruins will beat the Leafs, 3 reasons why Toronto will win & more

At long last, playoff hockey is set to return at TD Garden.

With Game 1 between the Bruins and Maple Leafs set to get underway at 7 p.m., we put together a one-stop post for all of our preview content, while also tossing in my prediction for the series and a couple of reasons why both the Bruins and Leafs could punch their ticket to the next round.

Thanks for reading and — as always — be sure to follow along with our live coverage tonight:

Let’s get started:

5 Reasons Why The Bruins Will Win

Toronto has no answer for the Bergeron Line

Whichever side of the ice you want to look at it, Boston’s top line of Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand and David Pastrnak has to be licking its chops at another rematch with the Leafs.

During last year’s seven-game victory against Toronto, that line combined for 31 total points — with Pastrnak now up to 12 goals and an absurd 25 total points over his last 13 games against the Leafs.

Down the other end of the ice, a trio anchored by a four-time Selke Trophy winner in Bergeron shut down Auston Matthews’ line — with the Toronto pivot limited to just one goal and one assist during the series.

This year, the Bergeron line has primarily handled Toronto’s second line of John Tavares, Mitch Marner and Zach Hyman — with the results once again swinging in Boston’s favor. In 22:33 of 5v5 TOI in which Bergeron and Tavares were out on the ice together, Boston held the edge in shot attempts (27-20), shots on goal (13-7) and goals (1-0).

If the Bergeron line can continue to negate one of Toronto’s top-six lines while wreaking havoc around the Leafs’ net, Toronto doesn’t stand a chance. Fair to say, a Leafs top D pairing of Morgan Rielly and Ron Hainsey doesn’t inspire much confidence.

Boston will bully Toronto on the forecheck

If the Bruins fall into the trap of matching the Leafs in a track meet, Mike Babcock’s squad will have a major leg up — with speedy skaters like Matthews, Mitch Marner and Kasperi Kapanen more than capable of making Boston pay on odd-man rushes.

Now, if Boston really wants to capitalize against the Leafs’ shaky defense, it’s going to keep things simple — namely, keep the puck low in Toronto’s zone, utilize big bodies like Chris Wagner and  Noel Acciari on the forecheck and wait for soft ice to open up in the slot.

“Slot battles,” Cassidy said of a key to a series win during Thursday’s practice. “Always that way for us. In the O zone last year, early on, did a good job. We got pucks there, we got people there, we won that battle and got good looks scored. As the series went on, they did a better job there. That continues into their power play. They’re real good at pinching pucks in there and they’re hard in front — Tavares, Kadri, Matthews, they’re big bodies that get that. So we’ve got to make sure we win those areas. That’s first and foremost.”

Boston has plenty of options when it comes to sending its forwards below the faceoff dots to retrieve pucks — with a more conservative 1-2-2 scheme potentially standing as the most effective option, given how it could prevent counter rushes down the other end of the ice.

Bruins will capitalize on the power play

Despite dealing with a number of injuries throughout the regular season, Boston has its full complement of weapons on the man advantage — with Torey Krug and Brad Marchand set to operate up top, Patrice Bergeron in the bumper, Jake DeBrusk at the netfront and David Pastrnak in his office at the left circle.

During last year’s seven-game series, Boston’s power play feasted against the Leafs’ 11th-ranked PK, cashing in on seven of their 21 chances on the man advantage for a 33.3 percent success rate.

For the second year in a row, Boston’s power play ranks third in the NHL with a 25.9 percent success rate, while Toronto’s PK has dipped to 18th overall with a 79.9 percent success rate. You do the math — and doesn’t look too great for Toronto.

The Krejci Line is poised to capitalize against Toronto’s iffy defense

Don Sweeney might have said it best when it comes to the performance of David Krejci this season.

“I think David is an underlying MVP to our season, to be honest with you, really a catalyst for our group this year,” Sweeney said. “Might not have gotten the prime attention that several other players deserved and merited, but very consistent year for David, start-to-finish. You’re seeing the development of Jake DeBrusk, and the year that he had, and David, a lot can be attributed to that.”

While a combination of DeBrusk, Krejci and rookie Karson Kuhlman is far from the top-six solution that most people would have predicted back in September, there’s no question that they’ve gelled in their short amount of time together — leading all B’s forward lines with a dominant 7.05 goals for (scored) per 60 minutes of play.

For reference, Boston’s heralded Marchand-Bergeron-Pastrnak line has generated a GF/60 of 3.51.

With the Rielly-Hainsey pairing (sheesh) likely set to get most of its minutes against the Bergeron line, a speedy Krejci trio is poised to capitalize against a heavier D matchup like Jake Muzzin and Nikita Zaitsev.

Frederik Andersen folds

For as much flak as Tuukka Rask has received for last year’s playoff showing against Toronto, Leafs goalie Frederik Andersen was actually worse — posting an .896 save percentage during the series loss.

While Anderson’s numbers are stronger than Rask’s over the course of the season, he has fallen off as of late — going 4-3-4 with an .889 save percentage over his last 12 games after posting a .924 save percentage in his first 48 games played.

Andersen also struggles when it comes to timely saves. Among NHL goalies that have logged over 2,000 minutes of TOI this season, Andersen ranks 32nd overall in high-danger save percentage — with the netminder only stopping Grade-A chances at a 78.25% rate. In terms of penalty kill save percentage, Andersen ranks 20th overall with a save percentage of 84.93.

Given the defense in front of him, Andersen is going to be left out to dry at times — and Boston is going to need to capitalize.

3 Reasons Why The Maple Leafs will win

Toronto capitalizes against Boston’s third line

For as much fanfare as both the Matthews and Tavares’ line receives, Toronto’s third line of Nazem Kadri, William Nylander and Patrick Marleau is pretty damn effective as well — posting a 62.22 CF% together this season.

While Boston’s third line of Charlie Coyle, Marcus Johansson and Danton Heinen is an intriguing option, especially with its play away from the puck, it is a bit of an unknown commodity.

In total, that B’s third line has only appeared in nine minutes of 5v5 TOI together, while the pairing of Coyle and Johansson together has gone through a couple of rough stretches, even if Johansson scored a goal against the Wild last Thursday. Over their last four games together, a B’s third line featuring Coyle and Johansson generated a minus-11 differential in shot attempts.

If the Kadri Line (who will be looking for some redemption after his ill-advised suspension during last year’s playoff series) can get a few shots in against the Coyle line, it could cause a domino effect of lineup shuffling for Boston.

One of the Matthews/Tavares lines breaks out

While the Bergeron line will do its best to neutralize one of Toronto’s top forward trios, Toronto added another franchise forward in Tavares for this exact reason — giving the club a two-headed monster up front to thwart the competition’s stingiest matchups.

As noted above, the Bergeron line has largely kept the Tavares line in check this season, with Zdeno Chara and Charlie McAvoy contributing to a shutdown effort.  However, Boston’s second D pairing of Torey Krug and Brandon Carlo labored at times against the Matthews line, with the Leafs holding a plus-2 goal differential and a plus-10 differential in shot attempts during 18:02 of 5v5 TOI in which Matthews and Carlo were out on the ice together.

Bruce Cassidy might have to switch around his defensive assignments to counter both Matthews and Tavares, but it seems to be a given that one of those two lines will receive favorable matchups at various points during the course of the series, especially when back on home ice.

Tuukka Rask falters

Fair to say, Rask has a ton to prove against the Leafs, especially after posting an .899 save percentage during last year’s playoff series. The pressure will be on for Rask to perform, not only because of his sluggish finish to this season (.881 save percentage since March), but because Boston has a more than capable backup plan in Jaroslav Halak (.924 postseason save percentage over 30 games).

Rask will have his hands full against a Leafs offense averaging close to 3.5 goals per game, while his goals saved above expectation rate of -4.10 (23rd overall among NHL goalies) is less than ideal for high-octane games.

At this point, even if Halak does spell Rask for a few games, the Bruins cannot let a game slip away, especially on home ice, because of a so-so showing from Rask. The veteran netminder is due for a bounce back against this Leafs team and should be rested after appearing in just 46 games this season. No more excuses.

My Prediction

The Leafs’ young guns might be a year older — and the addition of Tavares does add another major scoring threat. However, Toronto doesn’t have the defensive personnel to account for either the Bergeron or Krejci line, while youngsters on the blue line like Charlie McAvoy, Matt Grzelcyk and Brandon Carlo are poised to make major strides. I’m going Bruins in six.

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