Bedard: Tom Brady, Patriots offense will need to answer long-lingering questions to navigate Chargers

Taking a break from watching film on the Chargers to give you some thoughts on factors that will shape Sunday's AFC divisional game between New England and L.A. Let's start with the Patriots' offense vs. the Chargers D.

To (sub)run or not (sub)run

In my mind, if there's been one constant when it comes to reasons the Patriots bowed out before the Super Bowl in recent years (2015, '13, '12, '10) it's been this: When the opponents have played coverage with multiple defensive backs on the field, the Patriots either have been unwilling or ineffective with their runs against those subpackages.

You'll hear a lot of talk this week about the Patriots' history against the Seahawks' Cover 3 (former Seattle defensive coordinator Gus Bradley heads San Diego's defense) and how they'll just throw to the running backs all day long. No question, New England has done that in the past. The backs got 14 of Tom Brady's 32 completions against the Chargers last year in the Patriots' 21-13 victory. Just take a look at Brady's spray chart from that game -- just seven of his 32 completions were beyond 10 yards.



But know this: the Chargers have done a ton of adjusting this season when it comes to that.



Not only did they play with seven defensive backs against the Ravens, but they've played a ton of dime this season to make up for their weaknesses at linebacker. Against the Chiefs, L.A. played with Jatavis Brown (No. 57) as its only linebacker. Safeties Adrian Phillips (31) and Derwin James (33) play in the box, with James often taking the running back out of the backfield.

This is a sea change from the last time the Patriots saw the Chargers. L.A. is much more effective covering backs out of the backfield with those quicker players on the field.

Of course, the counter to that is to run against the subpackages. That brings us back to past postseason failings: Will the Patriots run against those looks, and will they be successful?

Well, if the Sony Michel media hype is to be believed, then the Patriots shouldn't have any issue with this.

Look, I think Michel is good. Any success he does or doesn't have against the Chargers, to me, will be dependent on the blocking. To this point, he's largely been a get-what-is-blocked back, but some of the reporting in other places have basically pushed the narrative that they used a first-round pick on him for exactly this type of game. I don't buy that, and haven't bought it all along. Michel was picked where he was because the Patriots wanted an immediate replacement for Dion Lewis, Michel was the closest thing in the draft and they didn't want to miss out.

In theory, New England should be able to run against subpackages. Of course, the Ravens, a good running team, also thought that with a running quarterback ... and they got 2.6 yards per carry from their backs. The Chargers' defensive line was good against Baltimore, even without its' best run stuffer (Brandon Mebane has been dealing with a health emergency with his daughter, and will likely continue to be questionable).

If the Patriots can't run effectively against L.A.'s dime, they're going to be back in the same predicament they have faced in recent playoff losses: Brady throwing against six-plus defensive backs trying to navigate a rush that pounded him in the past and can get home with four rushers.

A referendum on the 2018 Tom Brady

There's been a lot of talk about the State of Tom Brady (including from me -- here, here and here) this season. Regardless of your point of view, I think we can all agree Brady hasn't exactly excelled under a lot of pressure as of late.

If you don't want to take my word for it, consider that according to ProFootballFocus.com, Brady was 15th among starters in passer rating against pressure this season (71.3) and 22nd in completion percentage (45.3). Last season, Brady was first in passer rating (96.6) and second in completion percentage (55.7).

Now, that's not a total referendum on Brady. A lot of factors go into that, including the number of reliable targets and knowing where they're going to be when the heat is on. But I would take it as a further indictment on the Patriots' passing attack this season — it hasn't been good against good defenses.

And this is a good defense from Chargers.

So if the Patriots can't run the ball against the Chargers, then it's going to come down Brady. And it will take an MVP-type performance from the quarterback (provided New England doesn't get turnovers/special teams plays — which they could).

Last season against the Chargers, Brady was pressured on 41.2 percent of his dropbacks — among the highest rates on the season. The tackles (Nate Solder, Marcus Cannon/LaAdrian Waddle) got their butts kicked by Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram, but last year, Brady was able to find wide-open dump offs against the Chargers' Cover 3 scheme. They've adjusted this season. In this matchup, if the Patriots don't run effectively, Brady is going to have do something he hasn't had a high rate of success with this season: complete passes under pressure down the field.

So, again, the run is absolutely vital on Sunday. The Patriots can't get one-dimensional and expect Brady and his supporting cast to rescue them. Not this year. And, given their recent playoff losses before the Super Bowl, not any year, really.

Up next: Why it was bad news for the Patriots' amoeba third-down package that the Chargers just played the Ravens twice in the past three games.