First off, if Tom Brady is unable to play because of injury for any reason, the 2018 Patriots are finished. We all know this.
Up until this season — heck, maybe even last week — you would be correct in saying Brady could fully function with just about any injury. His toughness is beyond reproach. Brady was terrific in the AFC championship game last season, despite playing with a freshly opened hole near his throwing thumb (seriously). Brady has played with more ailments than most of us have had jobs. And he's won, almost all the time.
But after what we witnessed in Sunday's stunning (and completely fluky) 34-33 loss to the Dolphins, it's fair to begin to wonder if, at 41, Brady can still overcome his physical maladies like he used to. Well, to be precise, certain kinds of injuries (if he had the same hand injury, he'd still play well).
With any quarterbacks, especially the older one, the red-light, warning area is when a player has an injury in the lower body they can't shake. When it comes to throwing the ball, everything starts with the lower body, especially when you no longer have your fastball and everything needs to be in sync to be at the top of your game.
Brady is obviously dealing with an injury in the lower body. What that is exactly, or where it is, is up for interpretation. Our Dr. Jessica Flynn thinks it's with the left knee; I see some evidence it's the right knee or both. Honestly, it comes and goes. When it's not an issue, Brady is the MVP Brady of last season. We saw it for 10 glorious minutes of game action against the Dolphins — 13:26 to 3:49 of the second quarter.
But we also saw the other side, when Brady is feeling the injuries. When that happened against the Dolphins, he was Mortal, Very Average Tom Brady. Actually, with the setting in Miami Gardens, you couldn't help but to recall another former aging gunslinger who wound up succumbing to his various lower-body injuries: Dan Marino.
Brady isn't close to that point yet, but the overall point remains: I'm not sure these Patriots can get to the Super Bowl if Brady continues to deal with a lower body injury. It's clearly affecting his ability to be efficient. Sunday's loss was an example of that.
If Brady is Brady in the final 33 minutes of the game, the Patriots win that game going away. And we're not talking about that ridiculous final play or Stephen Gostkowski.
He was not, and the Patriots lost.
Let's go over the good, and the bad, from that game and what it all might mean:
Let's start with the raw numbers. It's night and day. Brady and the Patriots were at their best this season before the final two drives prior to halftime. After that, he wasn't even an average quarterback, and neither was the Patriots offense against a defense that was and is 27th in weighted DVOA (how they're playing of late).
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Let's go to the tape. This was Classic Brady in the second quarter.
Cordarrelle Patterson touchdown drive
Rob Gronkowski touchdown drive
To this point, I had Brady for eight "plus" plays, including seven throws, and three "minus" plays — two decisions and one late delivery to Julian Edelman.
Then, after that touchdown, Brady and the Patriots offense went off a cliff. I had Brady for two plus throws (one to Josh Gordon, a third-down pass to Edelman) and 11 minus plays (seven throws, four decisions).
Here are the drives to finish the half:
Final drive
After halftime, Brady seemed to be moving better, but he was still largely ineffective.
A look at the pluses and minuses in the second half:
MINUS — Decision. 7:57 third quarter. Brady throws early and out of bounds over Patterson when he had Gronkowski coming wide open on a one-on-one corner route 10 yards down the field. No pressure.
No grade — 7:53, third quarter. 29-yard hitch to Gordon. Quick, open pass.
No grade — 6:32, third quarter. Dropped Edelman screen.
MINUS — Throw. 6:30, third quarter. Brady fails to climb the pocket and Cameron Wake ends up hitting his arm as he throws. If Brady moves up 6 inches, Gordon is wide open on a crosser.
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PLUS — Throw, 10:28 4Q. Finds Gordon in traffic in zone coverage. Not a high degree of difficulty, but a lot of traffic.
No grade — 9:51. Throw against man coverage to Gordon. Plus-catch.
No grade — 9:24. Quick throw to open James White against zone.
No grade — 8:16. Wide-open Gronkowski against zone with open Edelman right there too.
No grade — 6:57. Contested backside slant incomplete to Gordon.
MINUS — Throw, 6:54 4Q. Brady rushes throw to Rex Burkhead in flat against minimal pressure.
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No grade — 2:13. Gordon wide open on slant.
No grade — 1:56. Gordon pass interference. Pretty good throw though with some late pressure.
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So what was the big difference? There's no question in my mind Brady, after the Gronkowski touchdown, started to be conscious of his knee(s). Here's the initial video and this looks like more than just a brace issue. Brady's clearly in pain.
Even after he was tended to, Brady was getting up strange after this incompletion where he doesn't attempt to step into the throw.