Final: Celtics 110, Heat 97 - Hot shooting, tough defense forces Game 6

Celtics vs. Heat

Game 5, 8:30 p.m., TNT

TD Garden

Line: Boston -8

Refs: Marc Davis (#8), David Guthrie (#16), Bill Kennedy (#55)

Injuries: 

Boston- Gallinari (out). Miami- Tyler Herro (hand, out), Victor Oladipo (knee, out), Gabe Vincent (ankle, out).

Projected Starters

Boston: Marcus Smart, Derrick White, Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Al Horford

Miami: Kyle Lowry, Max Strus, Jimmy Butler, Kevin Love, Bam Adebayo

What I’m looking for

Vincent’s injury impact: It’s wild how much losing Vincent hurts Miami in this series. He not only has a 29 point outburst on his resume, he’s part of Miami’s best defensive lineup. Now the Heat will either have to put more minutes on Caleb Martin and Butler, or rely on a lot from Lowry. 

Of course, Lowry has his own elite resume and history, but times have changed. If Boston can push the attack on him, he’ll be a weak spot for them. There's a reason he’s on the bench when it matters most. Boston can’t get sucked into his grifting game and they can’t just leave him wide open for shots. Just put him in actions and HOLD YOUR SCREENS. Don’t move and let him flop to get calls. Just stay solid and force him to chase. He won’t be able to keep up. 

Malcolm Brogdon’s injury (which isn't on the injury report): It’s been revealed that he has a torn tendon in his forearm, which could be part of why he’s struggling so much in this series. He’s been seen with ice packs on the right forearm after shoot arounds, and appeared in the Thursday warm up with a wrap around the right elbow/forearm. 

If he’s able to go and can hit shots, then he should play. But if the arm is causing an issue with his jumper, then he has to sit in favor of someone who will hit shots. Maybe that's why Grant Williams got more run in Game 4. 

Boston has the depth to handle sitting Brogdon. They can lean on that if they need to. There's no reason why Sam Hauser can’t get a few minutes while hiding on Lowry defensively. 

A fast start: I would love to see the Celtics get going quickly and set a tone, get the Garden crowd involved, and maybe make one of these games easy on themselves. 

The Heat are not a team that quits, but if Boston can make a big enough push, they might … MIGHT … be able to get Butler and Erik Spoelstra to feel like it makes more sense to just rest up, go home, and ride the crowd in Game 6 rather than waste a lot of energy fighting an uphill battle in Game 5. 

If the Celtics can come out hot and force this type of mentality, then they could potentially flip the momentum of a series where Miami has been the aggressor throughout. A tiny shift in the mental edge can put a lot of pressure on Miami. And while Butler is immune to pressure like that, it’s possible it can get to a couple of the role players. 

Defense-first: This is how they’ll pull that off. The key to it all is the 3-point shooting, which Boston limited for the first time after Miami hit nearly half their 3s in Games 1-3. 

“It’s something that we have to continue,” Horford said at the team’s morning shootaround. “That focus and that type of mentality. And that's what I expect tonight.”

Defend, force turnovers, get out in transition and make smart plays. The 3-pointers will flow off that because the types of shots the Celtics can generate will be better. 

How I think it will go:

I’ll go out on a limb and put it this way: Win this game, win the series. If the Celtics can show they are truly back and play a style of basketball that starts with defense, plays with pace, and takes good shots, they will win. 

They have to throw the old formula out the window. It’s not just about making 3-pointers at all times. When Miami goes zone, they need to get to the middle and find good looks wherever they are on the floor. Mid-range doesn’t matter against the zone, just find good spots, hit the shots, and get back on defense. 

Do that enough and Miami will have to scrap the zone. If Miami scraps the zone, Boston can pick on mismatches. 

I just can’t see Boston losing three in a row at home in this series. I’ll take them, I’ll take them to cover the 8.5, and I’ll take that flight back to Miami for a Game 6. 

Follow along below or in the comments during the game, chime in, and let’s have fun.