Final: Celtics 117, Pelicans 109 - Sloppy game, but just enough to win

Game 16: Celtics (-2.5) at New Orleans, 8:30 p.m., Smoothie King Center, NBCS Boston

Injuries: 

Boston - Danilo Gallinari, Robert Williams, Marcus Smart (right ankle inflammation)  New Orleans: EJ Liddell (knee), Zion Williamson (questionable, foot)

Pelicans probable starters: CJ McCollum, Herbert Jones, Brandon Ingram, Trey Murphy, Jonas Valanciunas

Refs: Zach Zarba (#15), Justin Van Duyne (#64), John Conley (#79)

A little something about the game: The Pelicans currently have the league’s 6th-best offense and 8th best defense. They're neck-and-neck with the Celtics in assist percentage, so they move the ball as much as anyone does. They're also 9th in the NBA in turnover percentage, so they protect the ball well, too. The difference between these two teams is beyond the arc, where the Celtics are a tick behind the Warriors in 3-point attempts at the top of the league, and the Pelicans are a tick ahead of the Hawks in attempts at the bottom of it. Unlike Atlanta, they hit the few they take. 

How Boston wins: The Pelicans will give up above the break 3-pointers, so it’d be nice if Jayson Tatum snaps out of his funk. 

“Just keep shooting,” Tatums said of breaking his cold snap from deep, also acknowledging the cliche nature of the approach. “We play so many games that I just always kind of look forward to the next one good game or bad game. Find ways to impact winning … I'm not stressing over it.” 

New Orleans is also 10th in the NBA in fewest shots allowed at the rim, but once teams get there, the Pelicans allow a 70.9% field goal percentage which is 3rd-worst in the league. So keep that ball movement going, keep cutting, and maybe use the offense to get Valanciunas in foul trouble so he’s not a killer on the boards. 

Defensively, they need to make sure McCollum is kept in check. Not having Smart hurts in this respect. McCollum just snapped out of a cold spell, so don’t let him get loose from 3. This very well could be a game where the Celtics trade 3s for 2s and live with mid-range specialists doing their thing.

How New Orleans wins: They have the league’s 10th best offensive rebounder in Valanciunas, and their 8th in the league in generating putback opportunities, so once again, crashing the boards against Boston can get them some easy points. 37.6% of their offense is at the rim and 33.6% is in the midrange, both in the top 10 in the NBA, so they want to get as close to the rim as possible and will pull up if their path is blocked. Brandon Ingram is another mid-range monster in the DeMar DeRozan, Dejounte Murray realm, so the Celtics may want to spend more time switching and less time in drop coverage. If the C’s drop, Ingram can kill Boston. 

Things I’m looking for:

- Malcolm Brogdon’s effectiveness: He seems to be in a good place and the extra time he missed was more precautionary than anything. 

“We're trying to just be smart for me in the long run and for the team in the long run,” Brogdon said at the team’s Friday morning shootaround. “Had a really good session yesterday on the court, body felt great, so I've been ready to play.”

I expect him to just slide back into his normal role, but let’s see if there's any rust involved. 

- The Jose Alvarado Effect: This dude is known for being the sneaky guys who swoops in for steals, but he’s also been a big plus for them when he’s on the floor. He’s able to distribute and get McCollum off the ball, and as Zach Lowe highlighted on ESPN, the Pelicans are plus-26 in limited Alvarado/Ingram/McCollum minutes. So the Celtics will have to be aware of his presence and not lose him beyond the arc. Think of Alvarado as Payton Pritchard with a lot of opportunity and you’ll get a sense of what he can do for New Orleans.

- Tatum and Brown bounce-back: The supporting cast really stepped up against Atlanta, which is great, but it’d be nice to see Tatum regain his outside shooting touch sooner rather than later. The Pelicans can be beaten from deep. Brown’s shooting from deep has cooled off a little too. I’d like to see a couple of early plays designed to get these guys some good in-rhythm shots around the basket so they can get comfortable and then maybe they can dial in their long-range shots. 

I’m in New Orleans and last night I recorded a fun crossover podcast with my friend, and host of the Locked On Pelicans podcast. Have a listen (or watch) before the game!

Follow along below or in the comments during the game, chime in, and let’s have fun.