As the Patriots hit the practice field for the first time on Saturday, after press conferences on Friday, I wanted to take some time to review the film of the free-agent/trade additions they are counting on to be upgrades this season.
It seems like everyone, including myself, believes that the major additions — A.J. Brown, Romeo Doubs, Dre'Mont Jones, Kevin Byard and Alijah Vera-Tucker — are surefire upgrades for the Patriots. The odds of that are more probable than not, considering they are all good professionals, and the Patriots' coaching staff showed a great ability last season at maximizing their talent relative to other coaching staffs. But let's make no mistake: none of these additions are surefire hits. There are concerns about all of them, ranging from the obvious (health with Vera-Tucker and Brown) to the not-so-obvious.
Let's take a look at the additions, go over the areas of confidence and concerns, and put a percentage on how confident we are that this is going to work for the Patriots. We'll go from most confident to least confident:
1. A.J Brown, receiver
This is well-worn territory at this point, as I broke Brown down here. I even largely hit on the compensation, with the Eagles getting a first and fifth. I had the Patriots getting a 2028 third back with Brown, so it wasn't perfect. Neither was the deal for Brown, which was a slight overpay.
Areas of confidence: With a change of scenery, being back with Mike Vrabel, being utilized by Josh McDaniels, and receiving passes from an ascending young quarterback in Drake Maye, I see very little chance of this not working aside from the ticking time bomb that could be his knee. He's not going to be a diva here and reading books on the sideline, not under Vrabel - at least not this season. Change is often good for people, and it will be for Brown. Get ready for the Maye-to-Brown backshoulder to become unstoppable.
Areas of concern: Just the knee, and how much he'll dictate coverage. There have been some reports that Brown is going to transform the Patriots' offense. It's certainly possible with a needed extra pep in his step being rid of the Eagles and Jalen Hurts, but I have my doubts. The data tells you he's lost a step, and it usually starts to go downhill quickly for big, aging receivers.
Percentage he's an upgrade in Year 1: Depending on health, 95 percent.
I don't think he's going to dictate coverage that much, unless the opponent has a pipsqueak cornerback who needs help with Brown's size. But McDaniels and Maye will maximize that big body, especially in the red zone.
2. Kevin Byard, safety
Areas of confidence: He knows this scheme and what Vrabel wants like the back of his hand, and that's going to be a big boost to the back end, where they did have some issues with former starter Jaylinn Hawkins and then-rookie Craig Woodson. The Patriots didn't have a ton of busts, but they had some, and that's due to decline with Byard back there. ... He's a fairly sure tackler, very good against the run, and good enough in coverage where he mostly wins with his mind and route recognition.
Areas of concern: Declining speed. He's going to be 33 in less than a month, so he's far from a spring chicken. He doesn't cover a ton of ground as a deep safety — he had to play mostly that with the Bears' personnel — but it's better than you would think because he's a wily veteran. ... And let's just say this, since everyone (including the Patriots themselves) have touted Byard's seven interceptions last season, which solely landed him an All-Pro bid (ESPN's latest rankings had him 18th), as evidence of his high level of play — a lot of them were overrated and of the Duron Harmon variety. Don't believe me, check out the video below and the QBs they were against: