Bedard: Areas of concern and confidence with Patriots' new additions heading into camp

As the Patriots hit the practice field for the first time on Saturday, after press conferences on Friday, I wanted to take some time to review the film of the free-agent/trade additions they are counting on to be upgrades this season.

It seems like everyone, including myself, believes that the major additions — A.J. Brown, Romeo Doubs, Dre'Mont Jones, Kevin Byard and Alijah Vera-Tucker — are surefire upgrades for the Patriots. The odds of that are more probable than not, considering they are all good professionals, and the Patriots' coaching staff showed a great ability last season at maximizing their talent relative to other coaching staffs. But let's make no mistake: none of these additions are surefire hits. There are concerns about all of them, ranging from the obvious (health with Vera-Tucker and Brown) to the not-so-obvious. 

Let's take a look at the additions, go over the areas of confidence and concerns, and put a percentage on how confident we are that this is going to work for the Patriots. We'll go from most confident to least confident:

1. A.J Brown, receiver

This is well-worn territory at this point, as I broke Brown down here. I even largely hit on the compensation, with the Eagles getting a first and fifth. I had the Patriots getting a 2028 third back with Brown, so it wasn't perfect. Neither was the deal for Brown, which was a slight overpay.

Areas of confidence: With a change of scenery, being back with Mike Vrabel, being utilized by Josh McDaniels, and receiving passes from an ascending young quarterback in Drake Maye, I see very little chance of this not working aside from the ticking time bomb that could be his knee. He's not going to be a diva here and reading books on the sideline, not under Vrabel - at least not this season. Change is often good for people, and it will be for Brown. Get ready for the Maye-to-Brown backshoulder to become unstoppable.

Areas of concern: Just the knee, and how much he'll dictate coverage. There have been some reports that Brown is going to transform the Patriots' offense. It's certainly possible with a needed extra pep in his step being rid of the Eagles and Jalen Hurts, but I have my doubts. The data tells you he's lost a step, and it usually starts to go downhill quickly for big, aging receivers.

Percentage he's an upgrade in Year 1: Depending on health, 95 percent. 

I don't think he's going to dictate coverage that much, unless the opponent has a pipsqueak cornerback who needs help with Brown's size. But McDaniels and Maye will maximize that big body, especially in the red zone.

2. Kevin Byard, safety

Areas of confidence: He knows this scheme and what Vrabel wants like the back of his hand, and that's going to be a big boost to the back end, where they did have some issues with former starter Jaylinn Hawkins and then-rookie Craig Woodson. The Patriots didn't have a ton of busts, but they had some, and that's due to decline with Byard back there. ... He's a fairly sure tackler, very good against the run, and good enough in coverage where he mostly wins with his mind and route recognition.

Areas of concern: Declining speed. He's going to be 33 in less than a month, so he's far from a spring chicken. He doesn't cover a ton of ground as a deep safety — he had to play mostly that with the Bears' personnel — but it's better than you would think because he's a wily veteran. ... And let's just say this, since everyone (including the Patriots themselves) have touted Byard's seven interceptions last season, which solely landed him an All-Pro bid (ESPN's latest rankings had him 18th), as evidence of his high level of play — a lot of them were overrated and of the Duron Harmon variety. Don't believe me, check out the video below and the QBs they were against:

1. Joe Milton, Cowboys: Do I really need to say more? This was a Bazooka Joe special, missing the receiver high by about 6 feet.

2. Geno Smith, Raiders: One of the worst QBs, on the worst team and offense in the league, but I will say this was a nice interception with Brown as the lurker, knowing exactly where Smith wanted to go with the ball (backside of trips to Jakobi Meyers). This is Byard at his best, using his mind to jump a route.

3. Geno Smith, Raiders: Yup, same game ... and the exact same concept. I can't give Byard full credit for this one, especially since Smith led Meyers right into the pick, instead of just putting it on him.

4. Spencer Rattler, Saints: A scramble/desperation play where Rattler is throwing on the run against his body and he completely overshoots a wide-open receiver. Credit to Byard for covering a lot of ground to accept the gift.

5. J.J. McCarthy, Vikings: The maligned McCarthy is pressured and hit as he throws a balloon ball over the middle. Byard gets credit for breaking off his flat responsibility and looking for the crosser.

6. Jalen Hurts, Eagles: Hurts throws on the run to his right wildly down the field and totally overthrows the receiver. Again, Byard gets credit for covering a lot of ground, accepting another bad QB gift, similar to the Rattler play.

7. Jared Goff, Lions: He throws late into triple coverage over the middle — never a good idea. Byard's not even part of the triple coverage; he just corrals the tip caused by fellow safety Jaquan Brisker.

Not exactly murder's row of QBs.

Percentage he's an upgrade in Year 1: 92 percent. 

I have a hard time seeing Byard being anything less than rock-solid overall, and likely an upgrade in the red zone, where the Patriots need a little help.

3. Alijah Vera-Tucker, guard

Areas of confidence: When he's on the field, he's an elite guard with extremely quick feet and great athletic ability.

Areas of concern: It's all about his health. Didn't play last season. Played 12 of 34 games the previous two years. That's not great.

Percentage he's an upgrade in Year 1: If healthy - 100%. Factoring in health - 30%. 

Add in that the Patriots have zero depth at guard (Ben Brown is it at the moment at all three interior spots, and he's ok/solid), and the team has definitely put this position at risk. But I do agree with the team that Vera-Tucker is worth the risk. I just wish they had a better backup plan.

4. Dre'Mont Jones, edge

Areas of confidence: Well, he's very experienced with 108 games played and 69 starts in seven years. He has positional versatility, having played everywhere from shading the nose tackle to wide 9. He's been a productive pass rusher with at least 40 total pressures five years running, and had a career-high 51 (7 sacks) last season between the Titans and Ravens. What he was asked to do in both spots will be similar to what he will be asked to do with the Patriots. ... His pass rush stats are good — his 12.9% win percentage was slightly better than K'Lavon Chaisson (11.5), and much better than Harold Landry (8.7 ... I'd like to see his pre-injury stats). 

Areas of concern: He's going on his fifth team in eight seasons, and the Patriots are his fourth team in three seasons. While that's never a great sign, he's viewed as highly intelligent and a good teammate. His extensive travels have had more to do with the fact that he's never really had a position as a tweener, but he seems to have settled on the edge in recent years. The Patriots are betting on his upside there. ... Despite having spent time as a defensive tackle, he's not very good against the run (he's always had way more pass plays than run plays, and he has not usually been on short yardage). Despite rumors to the contrary, he's not a great edge setter. ... As a pass rusher, he doesn't have many moves, and mostly works as part of a schemed rush (which the Patriots feature). He's much more of an ensemble player than someone you need to account for. Jones didn't do much against the Patriots and Vederian Lowe last year outside of two back-to-back rushes (including a sack of Drake Maye that was more of a coverage sack) where Lowe was just awful. 

Percentage he's an upgrade in Year 1: 50%.

This is where I start to have a lot of concerns. The Patriots are really counting on Jones. I think his ability to rush on the interior against good players is overrated. He's not all that fast or skilled on the outside rush. This is a guy who the Seahawks signed to a big contract to be a pass-rushing DT. He failed at that in Year 1 before they moved him to the edge, and then they cut bait after two seasons. The Patriots are betting that his best football is in front of him now that he's settled on the edge. I understand their thinking, but it could go either way. I think Chaisson (74 pressures, 12 sacks in 20 games last year) has been much quicker and more dangerous as a pass rusher than Jones (51 and 8). This could be a downgrade.

5. Romeo Doubs, receiver

Areas of confidence: Definitely upgrades the Patriots' slot position in terms of size, strength and run blocking. That might not sound like much, but it does help the scheme. Decent speed on vertical routes. Has shown the ability to make the big catches on the bigger stages, and in cold weather (Bears playoff game last year). Beloved in the locker room, and he's not going to be a problem despite being a different cat (quiet, not outgoing). 

Areas of concern: I have a lot, starting with the ability to assimilate into this offense. He's coming from a West Coast scheme, where you pretty much run what's on the paper. Snap after snap, you see Doubs only looking at the ball for the snap, never the coverage to see if he might need to adjust his route. In the slot, in this offense, it's all about adjustments and reading the defense. ... He's more of a robotic route runner than loose-hipped with some shake. In this scheme, you want your slot to be a jazz player, able to riff at a moment's notice. Doubs, at least in Green Bay, played in a symphony off sheet music. ... He makes some spectacular catches, but also can have the drops because of his inconsistent hand placement. 

Percentage he's an upgrade in Year 1: 35%.

I have a very hard time seeing how he's going to be an upgrade over Stefon Diggs in the pass game from the slot. It was effortless from Diggs, who couldn't block or get off man coverage (never mind his baggage). Doubs will be a better blocker; his size should help in the red zone and down the field. I don't think he's going to be better one-on-one outside of a pure size standpoint against smaller slots (maybe that's the point). There is a real chance Doubs doesn't work at all in the slot, and they need to move him outside in favor of DeMario Douglas/Efton Chism. Doubs might not work here at all. But McDaniels will keep trying different things to get him involved, as he did with the likes of Jonnu Smith, for the first season. If anyone can find a way to make use of Doubs, it's McDaniels, with a big assist from Todd Downing (look what he did for Kayshon Boutte last year).