Always a fun exercise to see where the Patriots' roster sits after the offseason practices and minicamp, but let's face it: we don't have a ton to go on without Christian Gonzalez and others fully available, and no pads to judge the trenches on. So this is really just a stab in the dark.
One thing we've changed this year is that we have eliminated the 53-man average we previously used to guide us at positions and started anew with the Mike Vrabel regime. Again, less information to go on.
We did end up making three trades, one that was fairly obvious, but also two minor deals.
The final few cuts and decisions:
• Wanted to go heavier at TE after the Julian Hill injury with UDFA Tanner Arkin (would make a really nice H-back, if Josh McDaniels wanted that) but decided that he could likely be stashed on the practice squad.
• I don't like having only three running backs, but that's another position that should be supplemented by the practice squad given how the league looks at running backs.
• Went with six receivers again, and I'm keeping Demario Douglas because there is a dearth of speed in the unit outside of Kyle Williams. It's nice to have at least a few people who can take a slant to the house.
• I went heavier at offensive tackle (five, four last year) and skinnier at guard/center (four vs. five). Pending pads, I don't see anyone grabbing a roster spot on the interior, and one of the tackles has to be able to play guard in a pinch.
• I really only wanted to keep four edge players, but I was too afraid of Harold Landry's health to do that.
• Patriots kept six DTs last year, and I did it again, although I'm not a big fan of doing that. Maybe they can trade either Eric Gregory or Jeremiah Pharms.
• Linebacker is home to probably my most controversial picks.
• I'm going to admit I don't have much of a clue at cornerback. I feel good about the first four or five (Captain Obvious), but it's wide open among Charles Woods, Karon Prunty, Marcellas Dial and Kobee Minor, among others, for the final spot(s).
On to the trades, picks and debate:
Quarterback: The Patriots wanted to get a QB into McDaniels' development pipeline, and so far, Behren Morton looks the part. I'm also not sold on Tommy DeVito as the backup after an underwhelming offseason. Doubtful Morton can make a charge this season, but I don't rule it out.
Running back: I like all three of the backs I cut, but they should be able to get a couple to the practice squad to have on the ready.
Receiver: I still don't see much of a market for Kayshon Boutte, but I think he's out at some point, even if that's a release. Chism deserves further development with his blocking ability, but I do think it's up in the air on Demario Douglas. It would depend on one of the rookies making a run to put Douglas on the trade block. Right now I don't see that, but that could change over the course of the summer.
Tight end/fullback: Given the team's preseason plans before the Hill injury, this group is very thin for the moment. Will Arkin or Dippre make a run? Will the Patriots look to make a deal for another tight end?
Tackles: It's three players (Crownover, Hudson and Bryant) for one or two spots. The draft pick looks worthy of development, Hudson gives a vet presence and should be able to help at guard. Bryant has improved ... maybe someone liked him a year ago and would be willing to send a pick.
One x-factor that is a long shot but I don't rule out: Caleb Lomu looks way too strong and is ready to start at right tackle, and the team decides to deal Morgan Moses.
Guard/center: This will be determined by the pads, but right now, I don't see anyone worthy of a spot on the 53. I'd be more willing to go the practice squad/claim route.
Edge: In my first version, I went with only four, but they are unlikely to do that. Will anyone among Swinson and the others truly grab a spot? I really don't know.
Tackle: The Patriots took six here last year, and they all ended up contributing. I would prefer to go with only five, but will the Patriots?
Linebacker: Chaos! I wanted to keep five with Britt, but I just can't bring myself to do that with only two LBs on the field most of the time. The Patriots will probably keep Britt because he's a vet, but he's pretty cheap to cut or trade. I decided to go with youth and speed in UDFA Jacobs and draft pick Obiazor. Should be able to get Muma and Reese to the practice squad.
Cornerback: As I said, your guess is as good as mine here. The Patriots like Woods, Prunty, Dial and Minor, and the rookies could surprise.
Safety: This group is pretty much chalk.
What do you think?