The final question of A.J. Brown’s meet-and-greet with the New England media was an innocuous one: How much do you have left in the tank?
“You’ll see,” he said, smiling on Tuesday afternoon in the new press workroom. Then he exited stage right, basking in the glow of a hell of a walk-off line. But that is the big question, isn’t it? Are reports of Brown’s demise premature, or are there enough data points to raise a red flag or three about the acquisition, the cost, and what the future may hold?
I am firmly in the camp of a big season loading for the soon-to-be 29-year-old. I write that while also acknowledging that there is evidence of some decline. I also view this “union” as essentially a two-year deal. Anything beyond that would be gravy in my humble estimation. But to illustrate points on both sides, let’s dig into the numbers.
The good comes courtesy of NFL Research and is indicative of the type of synergy Mike Vrabel and company are hoping to create between Brown and Drake Maye. Last year, Maye thrived in all areas, but on go balls, posts and slants, the third-year pro was 2nd in completion percentage, 1st in passing yards per attempt, 1st in passer rating and tops in success rate. Guess who has the most yards running those routes since 2022? You guessed it; it’s Brown.
Meanwhile, the returning Pats wideouts who garnered significant playing time: Mack Hollins, Kayshon Boutte (not for long) and Pop Douglas - have forced just 19 missed tackles over the last two seasons, combined! (Yes, I just used an exclamation point and no, I’m not very happy about it.) That netted out to 147 yards off those misses. If you want to throw in the newly acquired Romeo Doubs, he’s got a little more wiggle (9 forced misses), but he only added 35 yards total in those instances. Bottom line, even including Stefon Diggs, Kyle Williams and Efton Chism, the Pats were bottom-5 in the league in this stat.
During that same timeframe, the 6’1”, 225-pound (ish) Brown forced 22 missed tackles and amassed 181 yards. He should add to that total, and maybe by quite a bit, if the Patriots feed him the ball more on the underneath and in-breaking routes that Jalen Hurts just doesn’t like to throw. Maye, on the other hand, has always embraced that part of the game, thriving on it at UNC and now here in NE. It’s one of the things I liked most about him coming out of college.
Now the bad. Per Next Gen Stats, Brown’s speed was evident in 2022. He ran more than 15 miles per hour (this is from down-to-down, not just when he had the football), 29.9% of the time. This past year? Just 21%. Not only that, but Brown’s top speed declined, not crossing the 20 MPH barrier once in 2025-26. That’s the first time that’s happened in his career.
There’s also this, which comes from the website Reception Perception, which has been charting wide receivers for the last 12 years. Founder Matt Harmon noted that from 2020-24, Brown has averaged a 78.9% success rate vs. man coverage and an 82.9% success rate vs. press coverage. Both numbers are elite. This past year, not elite. He tumbled to 69.2% vs. man and just a hair under 66% vs. press. My understanding is that these stats are tied strictly to the receiver and are not connected to the quarterback. Basically, it's about Brown winning or losing his matchup.
Now, obviously, there’s no measuring the amount of physical and mental investment Brown was making in a place where, obviously, he was unhappy and never missed an opportunity over the last couple of years to make that known (even if he hid behind social media posts in some cases). That’s where Vrabel has made the bet on himself, offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, wide receiver coach Todd Downing and Maye himself to assuage the ego, feed Brown the ball (will it be within the confines of the offense?) and keep him engaged. The Eagles went to great lengths to do just that, and eventually, it fell on deaf ears. But if the Pats can maximize Brown’s talents, have him fully engaged, then perhaps he can turn back the clock and be more of what Vrabel remembers and less of what he was last season.
PRICE GOING UP
As we continue to monitor a developing contractual situation between the Patriots and Christian Gonzalez, the Broncos have looked at their own top corner, Patrick Surtain, and given him a $5 million raise, with an opportunity to add another $5 million if he makes a Pro Bowl or All-Pro. That, my friends, is proactive.
Surtain signed his extension in 2024, mere months after he was eligible. At the time, he was the highest-paid corner (AAV) in football, getting $96 million over four years. He promptly won Defensive Player of the Year, and has been to four Pro Bowls (earned).
But, in the couple of seasons since inking that deal, Surtain has been surpassed by five different corners salary-wise: Jalen Ramsey, Jaycee Horn, Derek Stingley Jr., Sauce Gardner and Trent McDuffie. That prompted Denver to pony up again, keeping its best defender happy and engaged.
“I want to be here; I want to be a Bronco,” Surtain said. “So, they heavily invested in me as well, as much as I've invested into them. So, it's an honor and a privilege to be here still."
The 26-year-old has missed just three games during his first five seasons in the league, has 12 interceptions and has taken two to the house.
BLOCKBUSTER
Maybe we now know why Myles Garrett had yet to introduce himself to new Browns head coach Todd Monken. After reworking his contract this offseason, Cleveland completed a blockbuster with the LA Rams earlier this week, sending the reigning Defensive Player of the Year to the West Coast.
“He is a pain in the ass to game plan against,” Sean McVay said. “I’m glad we don’t have to do that anymore.”
This is another example of the “eff them picks” philosophy that the Rams have largely embraced over the last decade with McVay and GM Les Snead at the helm. This is no different. They swapped out a 2027 first, 2028 second, 2029 third and 2024 Defensive Rookie of the Year Jared Verse to make this happen.
“We wanted to be aggressive,” McVay said of the deal, much like they were in acquiring the likes of Matthew Stafford and Jalen Ramsey in previous seasons. The Rams, already one of the Super Bowl favorites, are now firmly in the top spot according to the oddsmakers in Vegas.
“You guys remember who the Super Bowl favorites were before last season, right? No, you don’t,” McVay said. “Nobody remembers. It’s a fun narrative right now, but we’re going to be inside out. We’re going to earn it every day.”
From the Browns' end, GM Andrew Berry had long insisted that Garrett would be a “one-helmet player.” But after his last big extension, Garrett swore he would become a better leader. That didn’t happen, and led to this disconnect in the offseason, especially after the team bypassed then-defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz in favor of Monken. Combine that with the Rams' persistence, which led to a change in direction.
“But there are moments … where opportunities come up that quite honestly are unexpected and they force you to stop and reevaluate and look at it and (ask), ‘Is this something that could be really beneficial to the team?’ And that was the case in this instance,” Berry said. “The opportunity was too great.”
Verse, like Brown in Foxborough, showed up for the OTA on Wednesday. His inclusion in the trade led to an initial ‘no’ from the Rams, but they wisely reconsidered and continued their all-in approach. Now, it’s Super Bowl or bust for Garrett, who had to waive his no-trade clause to make the move happen.
“It's always been about winning,” he said. "And it just breaks down to the timing of everything. What does it realistically look like to be a winner now? And to have an opportunity to do that immediately, that was an opportunity that was just too difficult to pass up. And I always have love in my heart for Cleveland the city, the community and all the players and everything else. But the opportunity to come here, have an immediate and profound impact on this team, it was something I just had to move forward with."
AND THE PLOT THICKENS
In recent weeks, there has been chatter in league circles about a possible return of Rams DL Aaron Donald, who retired in 2024. The acquisition of Garrett spurred Donald to respond to a text from Pat McAfee saying yes, that trade “for sure got me thinking."
Donald has long been a workout warrior, and there were very few signs of slippage in his play. He just decided a decade in the NFL was enough. McVay was asked about the possibility of Donald's return during the press conference introducing Garrett.
"Aaron's a guy that I stay really close in touch with and I know the respect that he has for Myles," he said. "Talked to him about the opportunity to be able to bring him on board. If Aaron decides he wants to dust them off at the age of 35, I bet you he could still do it at a pretty high clip."
In 2023, Donald’s last season, he played all 17 games, recorded 8 sacks, had 23 QB hits and was a first-team All-Pro.
STEELERS SHELLING OUT CASH
Pittsburgh has had a long line of top-notch edge rushers. This week, they identified the next in that long line, extending Nick Herbig for four years and $100 million ($42 million guaranteed).
Patriots fans, and Will Campbell in particular, know Herbig well. He was dominant in the second half of the Steelers ' early-season win in Foxborough last season, with six QB pressures, three QB hits and a sack. While that was a season-high for pressures, Herbig was a consistent disruptor opposite T.J. Watt, with the highest pass-rush win rate in football (26.3%).
“I can't wait to show them that they made the right choice,” Herbig said after the deal was announced. “I believe that I was born to be a Steeler. And I know I said that before, and I’ll keep saying it.”
What’s interesting about the investment is how much money the Steelers now have committed to that position. Watt is set to count for $42 million against the cap this season, while Alex Highsmith has $40 million coming his way over the next two years.
“You pay players that obviously you feel deserve it,” head coach Mike McCarthy said. “So you can never have enough good football players, especially at the outside linebacker or the linebacker position. They’re all playmakers, so I’m thrilled to death that we have them all.”
Plus, all three missed time last season with injuries, so Pittsburgh has the kind of high-end depth most teams long for. The team also drafted Ohio State’s Jack Sawyer in ‘25, and he, too, contributed.
The Steelers also signed massive tight end Darnell Washington to a four-year, $42 million extension. Not bad for someone whose career high in catches is 31, which came last season. They still have to figure out new deals for fellow 2023 draft picks, cornerback Joey Porter Jr. and DT Keeanu Benton. Porter, for one, has been around for many of the OTAs but has not participated.
"It's a new start, it's a new beginning," Porter said of his attendance. "We got new coaches, we got new players coming in and I just want to be around the guys as much as possible and just to help as much as I can right now. I got all my attention towards that and just trying to try to get better."
But eventually, he’ll need to get rewarded, as Herbig (and to a lesser extent) Washington have. Stay tuned.
NEWS NUGGETS
- The Falcons locked up wideout Drake London, giving him $100 million guaranteed (4 years, $141 million). He is now the third-highest-paid WR, trailing Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Ja’Marr Chase, and ahead of Justin Jefferson (Vikings better get that fixed quick). London had 100 catches in 2024 but dealt with injuries this past season, playing 12 games. He still managed 68 receptions for 919 yards.
- More contract news. The Packers gave wide receiver Christian Watson a four-year extension for $110 million ($31 million guaranteed). Watson returned in week 8 from a torn ACL suffered in late December of the previous year and was very productive, catching 35 passes for 611 yards and six touchdowns. He was second in yards per catch during that stretch (17.1 YPC). His AAV now places him 15th at the position.
- Meanwhile, teammate Micah Parsons reiterated that he’s eyeing a late September, early October return from his ACL surgery and an ensuing meniscus clean-up. “Yeah, those (early-season Bears and Cowboys) games are important, but … everyone wants me at 100 and wants me in those (late-season) games so we can make this championship run.” Parsons underwent ACL surgery on December 29th.