There's not much more to discuss about A.J. Brown coming to the Patriots, since we've been talking and writing about it for months. At least now we have the timing and terms, pending an important physical. The only thing we're not certain about is whether the Patriots will restructure Brown's contract. We did get some comments from Eagles general manager Howie Roseman today since he spoke with Eagles reporters. We'll hear from Mike Vrabel and Patriots offensive coaches before practice on Tuesday. Here are more thoughts on the final deal and its financial ramifications, but let's start with the most important person in this deal: Vrabel.
We have touched on this before, but Vrabel is the short-term winner for the Patriots. But there's also no doubt that he's on the hook should this not work out.
The Patriots acquired a player who is physically declining, has a knee that required drainage twice a week on the way to the Eagles' Super Bowl victory (and scared off other teams), was a malcontent on one of the best teams in the league, and alienated his quarterback to the point that the Eagles wanted to move on from Brown.
“He just felt that for his family that, at this stage in his career, it was something he was desiring, that he was looking forward to,” Roseman told Eagles reporters. “In all of our conversations, he was very positive about his experiences in Philly. He just felt like going forward, that was something he preferred.”
“When we look at the last year, and there was a lot of talk about him during the trade deadline, he was all in on trying to win another championship last year. We sat down after the season, had conversations, continued to have those conversations throughout the offseason.
“... I don’t know that there was a day, but I think just based on a lot of conversations, it felt like there were parallel paths where we could be a really good team with him and obviously we showed that in the four years he’s been here, but also felt like with the resources that we had that we could build a really good team going forward as well.”
“It just got to a point where it made some sense from both sides.”
The price paid by the Patriots is steep: a first-round pick in 2028, a fifth-round pick in 2027, and the Patriots are scheduled to pay him an average of $28.2 million over the next four seasons at the ages of 29, 30, 31, and 32.
There's no way this Patriots regime would have invested that much in that type of player that Vrabel didn't previously coach and have a close personal relationship. So Vrabel is eschewing the business side of this deal, and making it very personal. That speaks to how much the franchise, especially the Kraft, believes in Vrabel, even after his messy offseason. He wanted this, and everyone had his back on it.
So that's the good news.
The bad news is that if it doesn't work out — especially if Brown's knee blows up, his availability is in question, and he falls off while the team comes up short — then Vrabel and only Vrabel is going to wear the trade, and his future personnel decisions would be questioned.
DeAndre Hopkins is a good comp. Before his age 28 season, the deal was: Hopkins (who wanted a new contract) and a 4th-round pick to the Cardinals for a package of RB David Johnson, a 2nd-round pick (no. 40) and a 2021 4th-round pick — compensation acquired by then Texans coach/GM Bill O'Brien that was openly mocked. It ended up not being terrible because after a terrific first season with the Cardinals, Hopkins fell off. Following injuries, a suspension, and a front-office and coaching change, the Cardinals were unable to find a trade partner and released him in May 2023 after three seasons. I mean, look at the decline of Hopkins, who is similar to Brown as big boundary X receivers who are more contested catch guys, after he turned 29:
But I do respect how Vrabel and his people have shoved a lot of their chips to the middle of the table for one of their guys.
They do not think Brown is in decline. They feel (or, more likely, know from Vrabel's relationship with the receiver) Brown was miserable with the Eagles and blame most of his apparent decline on a terrible offense under coordinator Kevin Patullo, an inconsistent quarterback in Jalen Hurts, and a head coach who didn't know how to reach Brown.
The Patriots are obviously OK with Brown's knee (pending a physical), and are confident that Vrabel, Josh McDaniels, Todd Downing and Drake Maye can revive Brown to an elite receiver for the next two or three years to make the deal worth it.
And after a Super Bowl berth in Year 1, Vrabel and Co. should be entitled to make a go at this. But make no mistake, this is a big risk, especially for Vrabel. This isn't trading for Randy Moss for nothing and not paying him. It's not signing (no trade) Stefon Diggs out of desperation. This is a big commitment for a player who's questionable to at least some of the league — no other teams were beating down the door to get to Brown.
Is he worth a first and a fifth?