Hurley: Don't let recent run convince you that Red Sox are going somewhere

For most clear-headed and impartial individuals, last year's Patriots season was a bit of a magical, charmed sort of run. Fortuitous? Yes. But also very real. They won 14 games en route to winning the AFC -- they hang banners for that in some corners of the world, you know -- and played in the Super Bowl. Any way you slice it, that's a real and successful season.

Yet there was one man who made it his mission to undercut that reality any chance he got, as he seemed determined to let everyone know that it was, as he bluntly put it, "fool's gold."

And while I don't share the same extensive collection of foofaraw to wear on my head, and while I don't believe I share the same eagerness to micturate into the proverbial punch bowl, I do feel an obligation to state unequivocally and with no prejudice or partiality that people ought to keep clear eyes about the current and future state of the Boston Red Sox.

Or, to just come right out and be a Cam Newton: Don't fall for the fool's gold.

Of course, you might be saying that to deliver such a statement on the heels of the Red Sox' second sweep of the entire season is in poor taste. Perhaps so. But I must share that some momentum toward this peculiar swell of Belief (with a capital B) has been building for some time.

It might have started on Sunday afternoon, with this tweet:

That one had odd timing, as Brayan Bello had been tagged for seven runs in a non-competitive start that afternoon in Atlanta, but the statement was clear: The Red Sox aren't as far away from being a good team as the 19-27 record (at the time) might indicate.

Theo Epstein, whose role behind the scenes at Fenway Sports Group remains somewhat of a mystery, pushed that narrative forward in an appearance on the Dirt From The Dugout Podcast.

"The pitching and defense have been fantastic, and ... that’s not an easy feat, to have that foundation now," Epstein said. "Having to figure out the offense and fix it midstream is important. But yeah, there's something to build around, the pitching and defense, and I know [Craig Breslow] and the guys are hard at work on fixing the offense."

With the Red Sox in the midst of sweeping the Royals in Kansas City this week, more of the commentary followed. NESN's Tom Caron pointed out that the Red Sox are in a similar -- and perhaps better -- position as they were a year ago, when they ended up making the playoffs.

Speaking of October, WEEI's Adam Jones -- not exactly your prototypical root-root-root-for-the-home-team type of local sports commentator -- started to believe that this year's Red Sox would be a tough out if they're able to make it to the postseason.

By Thursday, you had Rob Bradford on that same show declaring that the Red Sox are just one Yordan Alvarez away from being a World Series contender.

You get the idea. This is not to call out people whom I and many others like and respect. It is merely to note that the observation of this movement is not imaginary.

Yet, using every ounce of that due respect, I think some folks might be out of their minds.

The idea, I suppose, is that given the effectiveness of the pitching staff (top 10 in WHIP and ERA despite still missing Garrett Crochet) and defense (No. 1 in multiple team defensive metrics), the Red Sox are merely a bat or two away from being a viable big league baseball team, one poised to make a run into and perhaps even through October.

That thinking might lead many down a path to believe that if Breslow can merely upgrade the offense with a deal or two, then this Red Sox season can be not only salvaged but fully resurrected to meet or exceed the expectations which many had for the squad following last year's return to the postseason.

If that is your outlook, then hey, march that parade right down Brookline Avenue. Reading beyond this point will only invite rain.

For one, if Breslow were to A) go shopping for lineup additions and B) find multiple teams willing to give up impact big leaguers months before the trade deadline in a season where all but maybe three teams are realistically still in the wild card hunt, then he'll need to upgrade the following positions:

• Third base (29th in OPS at .517)
• Shortstop (29th at .578)
• Second base (29th at .565)
• Designated hitter (21st at .640)

Turning over nearly 50 percent of a lineup is typically something a general manager tries to do in the offseason, not in late May, early June, or mid-July. (Even if the return of Roman Anthony gets falsely billed as a "midseason acquisition," his .675 OPS this season has been part of the team's problem anyway.)

Yet while the Red Sox could have made runs at Kyle Schwarber or Pete Alonso or (to a lesser degree) Alex Bregman, Kazuma Okamoto, or Bo Bichette in the offseason, Breslow was busy trading Kyle Harrison for Caleb Durbin.

Harrison is currently 5-1 with a 1.77 ERA and 1.073 WHIP in nine starts for Milwaukee. He's a stud.

Durbin is batting .168 and has spent most of his past week on the bench.

Breslow does get credit for bringing in Willson Contreras and Sonny Gray in separate deals with the Cardinals, but it cannot be ignored that he made those deals with Chaim Bloom, whose history of winning big-league trades is not prolific.

Breslow's recent history of offloading the two useful components of the Rafael Devers return should provide more than a little doubt regarding his ability to "fix it midstream" in the trade market.

The bigger reality, though, is that the existence of the third wild card will always delude teams on the wrong side of mediocrity that they're still "in it" when they remain very, very far away. 

Take last year's Red Sox team, for instance. They finished in third place in the East, five games behind the Blue Jays and Yankees, and they cleared the Tigers by two games, thanks to Detroit's historic late-season collapse. So the Red Sox were the second wild card by name, at least.

In Game 2 of their playoff series, they rolled out a lineup with Rob Refsnyder in the leadoff spot, Romy Gonzalez at cleanup, Carlos Narvaez as the five hitter, Nate Eaton batting sixth and starting in right, and Nick Sogard batting ninth as the second baseman. That is -- politely -- not a real playoff team.

Masataka Yoshida moved into the cleanup spot for Game 3, with Nathaniel Lowe getting the start at first base with the season on the line in Game 3 in the Bronx. The Red Sox were shut out.

It's important to remember such moments when trying to conceptualize what the actual ceiling of this year's team can be.

Yes, the pitching has been excellent, and the 7-8-9 trio of Justin Slaten, Garrett Whitlock and Aroldis Chapman is so dominant that it's almost boring to watch them buzz through helpless opponents in the late innings. Yes, the defensive metrics speak for themselves. And yes, the Red Sox generally win when they score three or more runs. (They're 20-8 in those games.) 

Yet after this week's sweep in KC they were 11.5 games out of first place in the East and 8.5 out of the top wild card spot. They may have been two games out of the third wild card ... but they were also only 5.5 games up on the worst team in the American League.

A better long-term strategy for the Red Sox would be simple: Either give Breslow the job security that would empower him to sell off anything that isn't bolted down to the deck before the deadline in order to load up on prospects that are either ready or nearly ready to play at the big league level, or get Breslow out of the picture so that the leader of baseball operations this summer isn't making moves to squeak into the playoffs and justify his job at the expense of the health of the team.

It's got to be one or the other.

Think back to the summer of 2022. The Red Sox -- coming off their first postseason appearance in a few years -- had a lot of valuable trade bait on the roster, from J.D. Martinez to Nate Eovaldi to Christian Vazquez to Xander Bogaerts. Bloom actually pulled the trigger on a Vazquez deal, landing Wilyer Abreu in return. Had Bloom been given assurances from his bosses to continue trading off known big league players with no long-term future in Boston, who knows what kind of franchise-altering additions he might have been able to make? Instead, the clubhouse revolted, and Bloom ceased any further sales.

The Red Sox were .500 at the trade deadline that year. They'd finish the season six games under.

Failing to cash in at the deadline that year hurt the Red Sox in the long term, and for what? Bogaerts, Martinez and Eovaldi all left in free agency the following winter, and Bloom was fired the next season. The playoff drought began.

The allure of "buying in" to a mediocre -- or sub-mediocre -- team can be arresting. But the temptation must be resisted if John Henry and Co. want to really build a strong, consistent winner in the American League.

Alas, outside of a free drink, it's difficult to know what Henry ever really wants. And it's that ever-changing "philosophy" atop the organization that, generally speaking, has led to this ongoing predicament.

Still, despite recent appearances, it's not worth heavily investing in the 2026 Red Sox. With tradeable assets like Jarren Duran, Chapman, Gray, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Bello, Yoshida, Contreras, and others, the Red Sox have the opportunity to significantly rebuild their roster if they're able to identify the right players in return, just as Bloom did with Abreu four years ago.

Of course, a midsummer fire sale at Fenway Park isn't exactly going to win Henry any free pints at the Cask. But the long-term results of such a decision could give Boston fans a real reason to be excited for baseball.