Payton Pritchard needs to play more minutes.
Joe Mazzulla and his entire staff are incredible basketball minds. They prepare relentlessly, obsess over film, and understand every possible reality that could take place.
All of this is presented with the knowledge that Mazzulla and every coach on his staff know more about basketball than most people will ever know in their lives.
The notion that Mazzulla’s every move needs to be questioned at all times ignores the trust that Brad Stevens and the front office have put into him, as well as the widespread success he’s enjoyed up to this point.
But Pritchard needs to play more minutes.
Through the first five games of the playoffs, Pritchard has played 204 total minutes. In those minutes, he is a plus-52. The Boston Celtics have outscored the Philadelphia 76ers by 52 points with Pritchard on the court.
Boston has outscored the Sixers 553-511 this series, a 42-point margin. That means they’ve been outscored by 10 points when Pritchard has been off the floor.
For context, the next-highest plus/minus on the team is Jayson Tatum, who is sitting at a plus-39.
In fact, if you took away the plus-20 Pritchard accrued in his 32-point outburst in Game 5, he would still be a plus-32 on the series, which would be second on the Celtics (behind only Tatum).
And if the raw numbers aren’t telling enough, Pritchard’s on-court work has dominated the advanced numbers, too.
According to Databallr, with Pritchard on the court (172 minutes), the Celtics have had an offensive rating of 133.1 and a defensive rating of 113.3. A net rating of 19.8.
With Pritchard off the court (76 minutes), Boston’s defensive rating ever so slightly improves to 111.6, but its offensive rating craters to 103.4. A net rating of minus-8.2
That makes Pritchard’s on/off net rating a whopping 27.9.
But that’s not enough.
The Celtics’ three best two-man lineups all include Pritchard: Pritchard and Jayson Tatum, Pritchard and Jaylen Brown, and Pritchard and Derrick White.
Their two best three-man lineups both include Pritchard: Pritchard, Tatum, and White; and Pritchard, Tatum, and Brown. They are the only two three-man lineups that have a net rating of 20 or better.
Their top four four-man lineups all include Pritchard. Again, like the three-man lineups, Pritchard’s four-man lineups are the only groups with a net rating of 20 or better.
Finally, the Celtics’ best five five-man lineups all include Pritchard, and the best non-Pritchard lineup has a net rating of just 1.4.
When Pritchard has been on the court for the Celtics, good things have happened. He has impacted winning every single time he’s touched the floor. All the stats back it up.
Yet, with the Celtics struggling to generate offense, he still only played 26:06 in Game 5, including just 10:49 in the second half.
The Celtics need Pritchard’s offensive creation more than White’s defense or Sam Hauser’s floor spacing right now.
In the fourth quarter of Game 5, the Celtics’ offense went completely stagnant. Tatum and Brown couldn’t find a rhythm. Hauser made a couple of shots, but they were created for him. White whiffed on his open looks.
Pritchard could have done more. He could have had more responsibilities. He scored nine points on 4-of-6 shooting and dished out six assists in the first half, accruing a plus-16 in a seven-point ballgame.
Obviously, there’s a lot more that goes into it than stats. But the eye test matches the stats in this case. When Pritchard has been on the floor, Boston’s offense has been much smoother.
His long-range spacing forces defenses to either send help or live with kickouts. His ability to drive closeouts makes defending him beyond the arc impossible. His willingness to put the ball on the floor forces Philadelphia to send help or live with one of the league’s most efficient isolation players working in space.
White makes winning plays all the time. Hauser is licensed to pour in five threes in a single game at any point in time, and his defense is underrated.
But Pritchard makes offense happen.
His 3-point spacing, offensive creation, and off-ball movement are essential if Boston wants to generate consistent offense. And that’s key to taking down the Sixers.