Some assorted thoughts on Saturday as we prepare for the hellish annual turnaround to Day 3 of the draft at Noon....
• In many respects, the Patriots went chalk with their first three draft picks in a very needy approach. Needed a future replacement for Morgan Moses, check (Caleb Lomu). Needed a fourth edge player, check (Gabe Jacas). Needed a future replacement for Hunter Henry, check (Eli Raridon). This wasn't a very strong draft, so I think the "best player available" approach was pretty much out the window where the Patriots were picking in each round.
I also liked how this was the anti-2024 draft, where the Eliot Wolf-led Patriots were late on the runs for receivers and tackles, stayed put, and ended up drafting players who might not be NFL players (Ja'Lynn Polk, Caeden Wallace). Yes, the Patriots did get the final top-ish players who fit their scheme and playing style (Lomu, Jacas), but at least they did something. They showed strength in their conviction and evaluation, traded up, and picked them. That's something. Will it work out? I don't know. But at least the Patriots put their, um, footballs on the table and let it ride. Now, they did wipe out their fourth round selections where you can find contributors — that's where they got Craig Woodson last year, and that worked out dandy — but we can't say the Patriots were wallflowers.
• That being said, if everything goes right this season, there's the very real chance that the Patriots' top three selections barely contribute this season. Of course, that will depend on injuries. If one of the starting tackles goes down, if Harold Landry develops a flat tire again, or if Henry gets beat up, all three of the rookies are going to see their opportunities increase. Injuries change everything.
With that caveat out of the way, Lomu, at best, is going to be the third swing tackle. In theory, he could supplant Moses at some point, but he's not beating out Will Campbell, at least not this season. If there's a long-term injury to Mike Onwenu or Alijah Vera-Tucker, Lomu could be kicked inside in an effort to get the "best five." But the chances are high that Lomu is a reserve, does some jumbo tight end stuff, and sees some time in blowouts.
Jacas will compete for Bradyn Swinson (well, bye...), among others, to be the fourth rotational edge behind Landry, Dre'Mont Jones, and Elijah Ponder. It's a long shot for Jacas to beat any of them of them out. Jacas' best chance for rookie playing time is if the Patriots kick Jones inside on passing downs and Jacas proves to be a better option than Ponder. That's possible. But the odds are stronger that Jacas is a rotational player.
Raridon is the third tight end. He's not going to compete with Julian Hill for the primary blocking tight end. He's not beating out Henry as the pass-catching tight end. And the Patriots will have plenty of receivers to get on the field when A.J. Brown gets here, to say nothing of the running backs. Raridon's best chance for opportunities will be in three tight-end sets in the red zone, spelling Henry, and if the Patriots decide to run 12 personnel with two pass-catching TEs.
So, as of today, the odds are very strong that the Patriots' first three picks — two of which they traded up for — will barely contribute this season.
And there's absolutely nothing wrong with that.
I'm sure a bunch of you will throw a fit over it — along with some afternoon talkshow hosts — but this is