Some assorted thoughts on Saturday as we prepare for the hellish annual turnaround to Day 3 of the draft at Noon....
• In many respects, the Patriots went chalk with their first three draft picks in a very needy approach. Needed a future replacement for Morgan Moses, check (Caleb Lomu). Needed a fourth edge player, check (Gabe Jacas). Needed a future replacement for Hunter Henry, check (Eli Raridon). This wasn't a very strong draft, so I think the "best player available" approach was pretty much out the window where the Patriots were picking in each round.
I also liked how this was the anti-2024 draft, where the Eliot Wolf-led Patriots were late on the runs for receivers and tackles, stayed put, and ended up drafting players who might not be NFL players (Ja'Lynn Polk, Caeden Wallace). Yes, the Patriots did get the final top-ish players who fit their scheme and playing style (Lomu, Jacas), but at least they did something. They showed strength in their conviction and evaluation, traded up, and picked them. That's something. Will it work out? I don't know. But at least the Patriots put their, um, footballs on the table and let it ride. Now, they did wipe out their fourth round selections where you can find contributors — that's where they got Craig Woodson last year, and that worked out dandy — but we can't say the Patriots were wallflowers.
• That being said, if everything goes right this season, there's the very real chance that the Patriots' top three selections barely contribute this season. Of course, that will depend on injuries. If one of the starting tackles goes down, if Harold Landry develops a flat tire again, or if Henry gets beat up, all three of the rookies are going to see their opportunities increase. Injuries change everything.
With that caveat out of the way, Lomu, at best, is going to be the third swing tackle. In theory, he could supplant Moses at some point, but he's not beating out Will Campbell, at least not this season. If there's a long-term injury to Mike Onwenu or Alijah Vera-Tucker, Lomu could be kicked inside in an effort to get the "best five." But the chances are high that Lomu is a reserve, does some jumbo tight end stuff, and sees some time in blowouts.
Jacas will compete for Bradyn Swinson (well, bye...), among others, to be the fourth rotational edge behind Landry, Dre'Mont Jones, and Elijah Ponder. It's a long shot for Jacas to beat any of them of them out. Jacas' best chance for rookie playing time is if the Patriots kick Jones inside on passing downs and Jacas proves to be a better option than Ponder. That's possible. But the odds are stronger that Jacas is a rotational player.
Raridon is the third tight end. He's not going to compete with Julian Hill for the primary blocking tight end. He's not beating out Henry as the pass-catching tight end. And the Patriots will have plenty of receivers to get on the field when A.J. Brown gets here, to say nothing of the running backs. Raridon's best chance for opportunities will be in three tight-end sets in the red zone, spelling Henry, and if the Patriots decide to run 12 personnel with two pass-catching TEs.
So, as of today, the odds are very strong that the Patriots' first three picks — two of which they traded up for — will barely contribute this season.
And there's absolutely nothing wrong with that.
I'm sure a bunch of you will throw a fit over it — along with some afternoon talkshow hosts — but this is how good, functional organizations work. You don't wait until you have a glaring need to fill it in the draft, no matter how the draft industrial complex tries to oversell the immediate payoff of the three-day nerdfest (seriously, just freaking announce the picks, Pat McAfee). Good organizations, ones with functional personnel departments, look a year or two down the road and get the replacements. Especially in this day of funky college schemes that don't translate to NFL football, NIL and the transfer portal, many players are entering the NFL less prepared than they used to. It's much better to get young players into your program — Lomu is 21, Jacas will turn 22 next month, and Raridon is 22 (notice the Patriots stayed away from the 24- and 25-year-old college mercenaries — and develop them, as opposed to rushing them, and letting them drown in the jungle filled with grown-ass men that is the National Football League. This is the way the Patriots worked in their heyday under Bill Belichick, before he stopped doing it a decade ago.
• Here's the good and the bad on the Day 2 picks:
Jacas is absolutely a scheme and program fit in terms of football character, relentlessness, and violence at the point of attack. He's a very strong young man with heavy hands. He has elite get-off speed. He's shown good ability with stunts and games, which the Patriots love.
But, he's also extremely stiff and robotic. He does not have natural instincts for the position, and you can often see him thinking through plays like he's painting by numbers. He's going to be a work in progress in that regard, and the coaches have their work cut out for them. The good news is, universally, we have seen this coaching staff improve most players, often quickly. But Jacas is far from a plug-and-play guy.
Raridon is a willing blocker, but he's likely going to struggle at it for a while in the pros while he develops more strength. He's best as a size mismatch in the seam with some pretty good athletic ability on contested catches. He's tough to bring down with the ball is in his hands. He's just not going to wow you getting into his routes.
• Yours truly will probably be nominated for jackass question of the night to Eliot Wolf, but there was a method to my dumbassery, which I will explain after the Q&A:
Q: Watching some of Gabe's film, it looks like he's bowlegged. Is there any downside to that as far as injury risk or anything positionally for him?
EW: I don't remember him being bowlegged, so I'll have to go back and look at that. It wasn't something that was discussed by us, but to answer the general bowlegged question, that's not really something that concerns us. The knock-knee thing, the opposite of the bowlegs, is something that from a stability standpoint, particularly with some of the bigger guys, we try to shy away from.
A) It's readily apparent on the TV copy, and might be hard to detect on the coaches' film.
B) Jared Wilson is bowlegged, and that has caused him issues with the Patriots. It has caused his hips to get locked up on occasion, and was one of the reasons why Mike Vrabel suggested Wilson change his stance. Afterward, he played better. I don't know if it's the same for stand-up players, which was part of the reason I asked the question.
C) The real reason I asked the question was because of what Wolf mentioned with the "knock-knee thing." It's funny ... I actually picked that up sitting next to John Dorsey — Wolf's mentor and former Browns and Chiefs GM — at the Senior Bowl about a decade ago, watching the offensive linemen. He asked me to confirm if a player had knocked knees. I said he did, and Dorsey crossed him off his list.
See, not just a hat rack on top of my head. Well, at least some days.
• A final thought, before we enter Day 3 without Vrabel: both Mike Giardi and I received communications during and after Day 2 from league executives wondering if this was more of a scouts draft than last year for the Patriots. I don't have the answer for that right now, but it might be. Could it be due to Vrabel's off-field issues and his pending absence? Did the Patriots give Wolf more power in this draft because of everything going on, rather than just waiting until the final day?
Could be. But there could be another, more plausible explanation: not as much time scouting by Vrabel and the coaches. Remember, last year the Patriots weren't in the playoffs. Vrabel was at the Senior Bowl and was a heavy presence on the pro day circuit. The Patriots' season went on forever this year, almost immediately into the combine. There's no way Vrabel and his coaches were as prepared for everything as they were a season ago. It's highly unlikely Vrabel got his hands on as many prospects as he did a year ago (Lomu did not get the Campbell treatment). It would not be a shock if this were indeed a heavier scout draft for the Patriots. And not for any reason other than necessity.
Just food for thought.