MLB Notebook: How the Red Sox, Yankees, Blue Jays, Rays, and Orioles stack up on the mound heading into 2026

The American League East arms race continued this offseason. As spring training approaches, let’s break down what each team’s starting rotation looks like heading into 2026.

The Red Sox and Blue Jays made the most aggressive moves to improve their rotations. Boston became the final team in baseball to dip into free agency, signing left-hander Ranger Suárez late in the offseason. The Sox also added significant depth and upside via trades for right-handers Sonny Gray and Johan Oviedo, signaling a clear push to stabilize and elevate the rotation.

The Blue Jays are coming off a World Series appearance, falling to the Dodgers in a seven-game series. This winter, Toronto doubled down on an already deep roster by signing Dylan Cease to a seven-year, $210 million deal, giving the club another bona fide top-of-the-rotation arm to anchor the staff.

Baltimore entered the offseason in search of a frontline starter to sit atop its rotation, but ultimately landed right-hander Shane Baz in a trade with division rival Tampa Bay. While Baz brings upside, the Orioles still lack a true established ace, leaving questions about how the rotation stacks up against the rest of the division.

The Yankees made a more measured addition, acquiring left-hander Ryan Weathers in a trade with the Marlins. New York’s biggest boosts, however, will come internally, as ace Gerrit Cole continues his recovery from Tommy John surgery and Carlos Rodón works his way back from elbow issues.

Toronto Blue Jays

Projected Starters

1. Dylan Cease
2. Kevin Gausman
3. Shane Bieber
4. José Berríos
5. Trey Yesavage

Depth/Competition: Cody Ponce, Eric Lauer

Toronto’s rotation stacks up as one of the deepest in the division. Cease gives the Blue Jays a true power ace, while Gausman and Bieber form a veteran-heavy middle with postseason pedigree. Berríos remains a stabilizing presence, and Yesavage enters camp with a real chance to win a back-end spot if the club prioritizes upside over innings certainty.

Player to Watch: Trey Yesavage

Yesavage enters 2026 with sky-high expectations—and for good reason. The 22-year-old rookie has already cemented himself as a rising star in Toronto after a meteoric ascent through the organization. He opened the 2025 season at Single-A Dunedin in April and, by October, was toeing the rubber in Game 5 of the World Series.

During the 2025 regular season, Yesavage made three appearances, posting a 1–0 record with a 3.21 ERA across 14.0 innings, striking out 16 batters with a 1.43 WHIP. While the sample size was small, his stuff and the moment throughout the postseason, including the World Series, never looked too big.

In Game 5 of the World Series against the Dodgers, Yesavage generated 23 whiffs, the most by any pitcher in a World Series game since pitch tracking began in 2008. His 12 strikeouts were also the most ever recorded in a World Series game without issuing a walk, a historic performance that announced his arrival on the biggest stage.

Now heading into 2026, Yesavage isn’t just a breakout candidate—he’s a central piece of Toronto’s rotation plans and one of the most electric young arms in the American League.

If they fall out of the race, who is the first to be dealt: Kevin Gausman

Gausman enters the 2026 season in the final year of the five-year, $110 million deal he signed with Toronto in the winter of 2021. Over his first four seasons with the Blue Jays, the right-hander has compiled a 48–41 record with a 3.48 ERA across 125 starts, establishing himself as one of the most reliable arms in the organization.

During that stretch, Gausman has racked up 793 strikeouts and is on pace to reach 800 early in the 2026 campaign. He has also thrown three complete games, including two shutouts, and his 11.2 WAR with Toronto stands as the highest mark of any team he’s pitched for during his MLB career.

Gausman was at his best when the stakes were highest in the 2025 postseason, posting a 2.95 ERA in five starts. He even made a relief appearance in Game 7 of the ALCS, underscoring his value as both a rotation anchor and a high-leverage option.

With the right-hander entering the final year of his contract, and if—and that’s a big if—the Blue Jays fall out of the playoff race, Gausman would likely become one of the most attractive starting pitchers available at the trade deadline, offering contenders proven postseason experience and dependable front-of-the-rotation production.

New York Yankees

Projected Starters

1. Gerrit Cole
2. Max Fried
3. Carlos Rodón
4. Luis Gil
5. Ryan Weathers

Depth/Competition: Will Warren, Cam Schlittler

If healthy, the Yankees may have the highest ceiling in the division. Fried and Cole give New York a dominant left-right combo at the top, while Rodón’s rebound is one of the rotation’s biggest swing factors. Gil’s power arsenal fits well in the fourth spot, and Weathers provides length and matchup flexibility. Depth arms like Warren and Schlittler give the Yankees insurance they’ve lacked in recent seasons.

Player to Watch: Cam Schlittler

Red Sox fans have a new villain. 

The New England native became public enemy No. 1 during the postseason, trolling Boston fans on social media. The righty backed up his trash talk, striking out a dozen Sox batters. Schlittler, 24, went 4-3 with a 2.96 ERA in 14 regular-season starts during his rookie campaign, striking out 84 batters against 31 walks in 73 innings while permitting 58 hits.

He primarily leaned on his fastball (54.7%), rounding out his arsenal with a cutter (20.8%), a curveball (14.9%), a sinker (7.2%), and a sweeper (2.4%), per Baseball Savant. The rookie is reportedly increasing his workload down in Florida as the club embarks on the opening camp. His electric fastball and tremendous upside offer the Yankees another weapon in their rotation to pitch meaningful innings until Cole is ready later in the year.

Difference maker in 2026

At some point in 2026, the Yankees will get veteran ace Cole back from Tommy John surgery. Cole tossed multiple bullpen sessions toward the end of last year and is working on his normal spring training buildup. The 2023 Cy Young Award winner and six-time All-Star, who will turn 36 during the season, is a major variable within the Yankees’ starting pitching success later in the season.

Up to this point, New York hasn’t made a major pitching move to reinforce its rotation. The club was linked to Edward Cabrera before he was shipped to the Cubs and Freddy Peralta before the Mets swooped in and traded for him in mid-January.

While Cole, Colón, and Clarke Schmidt are on the mend, other internal options like Ryan Yarbrough will be another pitcher that’ll be used like Flex Seal tape for the Yankees’ rotation.

The Yankees have other top pitching prospects who could be in the mix in Carlos Lagrange, Elmer Rodriguez, who they acquired from the Red Sox in the Carlos Narvaez trade, Chase Hampton, Brock Selvidge, and Brendan Beck.

Tampa Bay Rays

Projected Starters

1. Shane McClanahan
2. Drew Rasmussen
3. Ryan Pepiot
4. Steven Matz
5. Joe Boyle

Depth/Competition: Ian Seymour

As usual, Tampa Bay blends upside and creativity. McClanahan’s return anchors the staff, while Rasmussen and Pepiot give the Rays strong mid-rotation stability. Matz provides veteran innings, and Boyle’s raw stuff offers volatility but intrigue. Seymour could factor in depending on workload management, making this a typical Rays rotation built on flexibility rather than star power.

Player to watch: Joe Boyle 

Boyle is coming off a 2025 season where he showcased his elite power arsenal for the Tampa Bay Rays while making tangible strides with his command. Across 86+ innings with Triple-A Durham, he posted a dominant 32.9% strikeout rate alongside an 11.8% walk rate. In 52 big-league innings, those marks settled at 25.7% K% and 12.4% BB%, reflecting both the swing-and-miss upside.

Boyle’s 98.5 mph average fastball velocity ranks in the 96th percentile, immediately putting him among the hardest throwers in baseball. He pairs that velocity with above-average bat-missing ability, sitting in the 77th percentile in Whiff% and 74th percentile in strikeout rate. His expected batting average against (xBA, .218) also grades well (77th percentile), showing hitters struggle to square him up consistently.

With Shane Baz dealt to the Baltimore Orioles, Boyle profiles as a high-octane internal replacement for the Rays’ rotation — a classic Tampa Bay upside bet. If his improved command holds, the Savant indicators suggest there’s real breakout potential behind the radar-gun readings.

Key to Rays’ 2026 Success: Shane McClanahan’s Return

The Tampa Bay Rays’ outlook in 2026 hinges heavily on the health and effectiveness of ace lefty McClanahan. The left-hander hasn’t pitched in the Majors since Aug. 2, 2023, after undergoing his second Tommy John surgery later that month and spending the entire 2024 season rehabbing. McClanahan entered spring training fully healthy and looking ready to reclaim his place atop the rotation, only to be sidelined again by a freak injury in his final tune-up outing—later diagnosed as a nerve issue in his left triceps.

When healthy, McClanahan has been one of the most dominant starters in baseball. From 2021 to 2023, he compiled 8.8 WAR (per Baseball-Reference), posted a 3.02 ERA, and struck out 456 batters across 404 2/3 innings over 74 starts. He was named the American League’s starting pitcher in the 2022 All-Star Game, finished sixth in AL Cy Young voting that season, and earned another All-Star selection in 2023. If McClanahan can return to anything close to that form, it would be a massive boost for the Tampa Bay Rays as they look to contend in ’26.

Baltimore Orioles

Projected Starters

1. Shane Baz
2. Kyle Bradish
3. Zach Eflin
4. Trevor Rogers
5. Dean Kremer

Depth/Competition: Tyler Wells, Cade Povich

Baltimore’s rotation remains solid but unspectacular relative to the division’s arms race. Baz brings frontline upside, though durability remains a question. Bradish and Eflin offer reliable innings, while Rogers and Kremer round out the back end. Wells and Povich give the Orioles options, but this staff still lacks the proven ace presence seen elsewhere in the AL East.

Player to Watch: Cade Povich

For the Orioles, 2026 looms as a defining season for Povich. At this point, the question is simple: can he establish himself as a legitimate rotation option, or is he destined to remain organizational depth for the Orioles?

The surface numbers paint a troubling picture. Across 32 games (30 starts) over two seasons, Povich owns a 5.20 ERA. Last year alone, he logged 112 2/3 innings with 118 strikeouts but also went 3–8 with that same 5.20 ERA. Five of his starts ended with five or more runs allowed, a sign of how quickly outings could unravel.

Digging deeper into Povich

Povich surrendered 125 hits and 43 walks, leading to a 1.50 WHIP that all but guaranteed traffic on the bases every time through the lineup. While he did slightly reduce his walk rate (from 3.85 per nine innings to 3.45), that improvement was offset by a spike in hits allowed, jumping from 9.04 to 10.01 per nine. 

The end result: more than a hit per inning combined with three-and-a-half free passes per game.

The frustrating part is that the upside is still evident with Povich. Those 118 strikeouts confirm the swing-and-miss stuff played at the big league level. But inconsistency defined his season, from blow-up starts to flashes of dominance, compounded by time on the injured list with hip inflammation and repeated shuttling between Baltimore and the minors. 

If Povich is going to stick in the Orioles’ rotation, 2026 is the year he must turn that raw ability into reliable major league results.

Kyle Bradish: The Linchpin in Baltimore’s 2026 Rotation

Everything about Bradish’s return from Tommy John surgery points to a pitcher who never really lost himself. When he came back late in 2025, he looked like the same arm Baltimore leaned on before the injury—two elite breaking balls driving his profile, consistent swing-and-miss, and the efficiency to work into the sixth inning without his pitch count spiraling. The sinker–slider combination was a key contributor to the success he saw on the mound after he came off the injured list. 

The underlying metrics reinforce what the eye test showed. Bradish’s Baseball Savant indicators paint the picture of a frontline starter: a 3.09 xERA, .210 xBA, strong contact suppression, and elite bat-missing rates. His fastball may never be the calling card—and it remains the one pitch that keeps him from the traditional “ace” label—but it’s good enough when paired with two legitimate plus breaking balls that force hitters into uncomfortable decisions.

That’s why the workload concerns feel overblown. Comparable post–Tommy John arms have handled full seasons the following year, and Bradish’s style supports durability. He’s not living on max-effort heaters; he’s living on movement, command which allows him to avoid long, stressful innings and consistently turn lineups over.

With no clear No. 1 in the Baltimore Orioles rotation, Bradish is positioned to assume that role by default—and by performance. If he remains healthy, Baltimore doesn’t just get a steady mid-rotation arm. They get a de facto rotation leader whose stuff, metrics, and situation all align for stellar production in 2026.

Boston Red Sox

Projected Starters

1. Garrett Crochet
2. Ranger Suárez
3. Sonny Gray
4. Brayan Bello
5. Johan Oviedo

Depth/Competition: Kutter Crawford, Patrick Sandoval, Kyle Harrison, Payton Tolle, Connelly Early

The Red Sox quietly assembled one of the deepest and most complete rotations in the division. Crochet and Suárez form a high-end left-handed tandem capable of matching up with anyone, while Gray provides veteran stability and innings. Bello and Oviedo round out a group that blends present value with long-term upside.

What separates Boston from most contenders is the depth behind the top five. Crawford, Sandoval, and Harrison give the Sox legitimate big-league options beyond the rotation, while prospects like Early and Tolle loom as near-term contributors. 

On paper, this is Boston’s most complete rotation in years. 

Player to Watch: Connelly Early

Early enters 2026 carrying real expectations and a legitimate chance to break camp with the big-league club. Among Boston’s pitching prospects, he took the biggest leap last season, earning starts down the stretch and even taking the ball in Game 3 of the American League Wild Card Series. That polish stood out, especially when compared to Tolle’s rapid rise; Early simply looked more finished, a reflection of his longer time in pro ball.

Physically, he’s better equipped for the grind. Early added muscle to his frame, a meaningful development for durability over a 162-game season. If he opens the year at Triple-A Worcester, it’s more a reflection of Boston’s pitching surplus than any shortcoming on his part—there are only so many innings to go around.

On the mound, the growth was tangible. Early squeezed more out of his fastball, touching 94 mph, but it was his secondaries that defined his 2025 breakout. He leaned on a deep mix—curveball, changeup, sinker, slider, and sweeper—to disrupt timing and create uncomfortable at-bats. Against left-handed hitters, his approach tightened: minimal curveball and changeup usage, heavier reliance on the sinker and sweeper, paired with the fastball and slider.

Boston has floated Early in trade talks as a potential chip to upgrade the lineup, but the front office has been reluctant to move him or Tolle. If he remains, it’s hard to see a scenario where Early doesn’t log meaningful major league innings in 2026—and possibly in games that matter late in the season.

Ranger Suárez: Must Prove He’s Worth the Investment

Behind Crochet, Suárez is the most impactful addition Boston made. His presence alone pushed the Red Sox’s projected rotation WAR to 18.1, per FanGraphs—one win ahead of the defending World Series champion Dodgers and two ahead of the Tigers. That’s frontline impact.

Suárez is a classic run-prevention arm. In 2025, he ranked in the 90th percentile in overall pitching run value, backed by an 84th-percentile xERA (3.16) and a 70th-percentile xBA (.226). Contact quality was elite: opponents averaged just 86.5 mph in exit velocity (95th percentile), while his barrel and hard-hit rates sat in the 89th and 98th percentiles.

He achieves that without overpowering velocity. Suárez threw five different pitches at least 14 percent of the time last season, with no single offering exceeding 28.6 percent usage. Against left-handed hitters, his sinker became the focal point, jumping to nearly 46 percent usage. Velocity, however, is trending down—his four-seamer averaged 91.3 mph in 2025, a notable drop from 93.4 mph in 2023.

That decline ties into the central concern: workload. Suárez has never topped 157 1/3 innings in a season and has made 29 starts only once. A history of nagging injuries—groin, back, hamstring, and an elbow issue in 2023—adds risk to the profile. For Boston, the bet is that depth can cushion those concerns. For Suárez, 2026 is about proving that his production can justify the contract over a full, healthy season.

The American League East boasts its deepest collection of starting rotations in years, with the Red Sox and Blue Jays setting the pace heading into 2026. Internal depth and emerging young arms will shape the division’s storylines over the course of the season. Boston and Toronto enter the year well positioned from a pitching standpoint, while the Rays, Yankees, and Orioles are banking on upside and key contributors returning from the injured list to remain competitive in 2026.