Bedard: Does he have a chance? The lowdown on Broncos QB Jarrett Stidham, plus Landry out

The AFC Championship Game, I know this is breaking news, will come down to how Broncos backup Jarrett Stidham handles the game, taking over for Bo Nix.

Can he do it? Obviously, I covered him with the Patriots. I also studied his two starts under Josh McDaniels with the Raiders, and his start against the Chargers for the Broncos in 2023.

Here's my report on Stidham, including film analysis from the Chargers' game:

WHAT HE DOES WELL

• His physical profile is pretty good — 6-3, 225 pounds, a wingspan that is in the 61st percentile for QBs. His straight-ahead speed is pretty good (4.81 coming out in the draft), but his agility is limited (19th percentile in the 3-cone drill). His hands (9 1/8) are on the small size, and the same size as Drake Maye's.
• His arm strength is good enough. He can fit balls into tight windows with velocity. Has the arm to air out long balls with arc — upwards of 55 yards.
• Has good mobility, will make plays with his feet, and throws well on the run.

• Understands when he has one-on-ones and will not be afraid to throw it up to physical mismatches. Cortland Sutton (6-3½), Troy Franklin (6-2), Pat Bryant (6-2), and Lil'Jordan Humphrey (6-4) all have good size.
• Smart player who realizes when the defense might be attempting to jump his routes, or coverages with trap corners. 
• Very good when the first read is there, and he can be decisive.
• If there's a free runner coming at him straight ahead, he will stand in, deliver the ball, and take the hit.

• Shows good touch and placement on fades in the red zone.
• If he's protected and there's man coverage to define his read, he will make the defense pay.

WHERE HE STRUGGLES

• Intangibles. There's always been something missing with Stidham, and it factors into why he's a) never really gotten a shot to start, and b) never won a competition in the NFL. He's a good guy and teammate, but he's not really a guy who inspires confidence in his teammates and coaches. The Patriots did not view him as a front-of-the-room, face-of-the-franchise type. Bill Belichick thought so little of his ability to lead a team that he would not start him with the Patriots out of playoff contention during the Covid year. Belichick thought, if he started Stidham, his teammates would check out and completely let go of the rope.
• He gets panicky if the first read is not there.
• He's consistently late with the ball, especially if you get him off his first read. Stidham throws hospital balls late and with poor placement on short and intermediate routes. His film is littered with teammates taking hard hits as they're catching the ball, and deflected passes over the middle of the field.
• Stidham will heave deep-ball prayers into double coverage down the field. I don't know why he does it, maybe it's a belief in his arm, but the Patriots' safeties will have chances to come over the top and intercept passes.
• Similar to CJ Stroud last week, he will attempt passes while he's getting hit, leading to deflected passes in the air.
• While Stidham will stand in against a free runner because he can see him, his mechanics start to break down if he's feeling the pocket squeeze. On one play against the Chargers, Stidham had a butt-sack where he moved right into the backside of left guard Ben Powers and went down for a sack.
• If constantly facing pressure, he will start to throw off his back foot and fade away on passes, leading to less energy on the ball down the field.
• Plays with a slower tempo under Sean Payton than he did with McDaniels. Stidham's start against the 49ers under McDaniels was the best game of his career, right until he got hit as he was throwing, the ball fluttered in the air, and it resulted in an interception in OT (his other INT was a tipped pass). In that game, Stidham played with great tempo and got away from center very quickly. Payton loves the shotgun and 3-step drops in Stidham's start. Stidham is more plodding in Denver.

LAST WORD

• If Stidham isn't under a lot of pressure and the Broncos' defense holds down the Patriots, he absolutely can manage the game well enough to win the game. That's why the matchup between the Denver offensive line and the pass rush/pressure packages is so huge in this game.
• If the Broncos can't generate a run game and the Patriots are able to get constant pressure on Stidham, he's going to fold at some point.
• As you'll see in the video, the Broncos' opening script against the Chargers was kind of a disaster class, with Stidham being late and inaccurate on throws. Plus, the Chargers were sitting on short routes, daring Stidham to beat them. I expect the Patriots to do the same thing. And that's why I would not be surprised if Payton dialed up a big shot play early, possibly the first pass attempt of the game. And Stidham will just heave it up, even into double coverage. That first deep shot could be completed or intercepted, and that could be the way the game goes.
• I just think Stidham lacks the mental toughness to come through in this spot for 60 minutes.
• NFL executive, who has studied and been around Stidham: "Smart, accurate, mobile. Durability has been up and down for a guy who hasn’t played much.  Not battle tested…has never won the job in any of the spots he’s been in. Could win with if good team around."

INJURY REPORT

DE Harold Landry (knee) has been ruled out, which isn't a huge loss because he hasn't played well in weeks (just 11 snaps last week). The Patriots will ask more of Elijah Ponder and Anfernee Jennings, who will be a game captain for his good play of late.

"That's deservedly so," Vrabel said. "He has, again, a professionalism that he's shown throughout this entire season. Appreciate it, appreciate him taking advantage of his opportunities, playing physical, playing on special teams, finding a role. So again, that was an easy pick for me this week."

WR Mack Hollins (abdomen), CB Carlton Davis (concussion) and LB Marte Mapu (hip) are questionable.