Garrett Crochet leads a loaded Red Sox rotation built to dominate in 2026

The Red Sox enter 2026 with one of the deepest and most imposing starting rotations in baseball—and it begins with Garrett Crochet.

Boston’s rotation is headlined by the hard-throwing left-hander, who had a dominant first season in a Red Sox uniform. Crochet finished second in American League Cy Young voting behind Tigers ace Tarik Skubal, who captured the award for a second consecutive year. While Skubal ultimately took home the hardware, Crochet’s profile—across both traditional and advanced metrics—firmly placed him among the game’s elite.

With Crochet anchoring the rotation, Boston went into the offseason attacking their starting rotation and focused on acquiring arms that would slot to the top of the rotation versus a number of backend starters.

The Red Sox acquired right-hander Sonny Gray from the Cardinals and Johan Oviedo from the Pirates, then made a significant splash in free agency by signing left-hander Ranger Suárez to a five-year, $130 million deal.

As camp opens, manager Alex Cora has flexibility. Crochet, Suárez, and Gray form a clear top three, with Brayan Bello and Oviedo competing to round out the rotation—unless Bello is moved in a trade to address the lineup. Returning right-hander Kutter Crawford (knee surgery) and left-hander Patrick Sandoval (Tommy John surgery) are also viable candidates for the fifth spot, while rookies Payton Tolle and Connelly Early are likely to begin the season in Triple-A Worcester.

Suárez represents the most impactful addition behind Crochet, giving the Red Sox a legitimate No. 2 starter. His arrival pushes Boston’s projected rotation WAR to 18.1, according to FanGraphs—one full win ahead of the reigning World Series champion Dodgers and two ahead of the Tigers.

The 30-year-old southpaw is the definition of a run-prevention arm. He ranked in the 90th percentile in overall pitching run value in 2025, supported by an 84th-percentile xERA (3.16), a 70th-percentile xBA (.226), and elite contact suppression metrics. Opponents averaged just 86.5 mph in exit velocity against him (95th percentile), while his barrel and hard-hit rates ranked in the 89th and 98th percentiles, respectively.

Suárez relies on depth rather than overpowering velocity. He threw five pitches at least 14 percent of the time last season, with no single pitch exceeding 28.6 percent usage. Against left-handed hitters, his sinker usage jumped to 45.7 percent. His velocity has dipped—his four-seamer averaged 91.3 mph in 2025, down from 93.4 in 2023. 

The primary concern remains around his workload: he has never exceeded 157 1/3 innings in a single season and has made 29 starts only once. He’s had a handful of different injuries that have snuck up on him, including a groin issue, back tightness, a hamstring problem, and an elbow issue he dealt with in 2023. 

Gray, 36, slots neatly into the No. 3 role. He made 32 starts for St. Louis last season, posting a 4.28 ERA over 180 2/3 innings while striking out 201 batters. His 5.29 strikeout-to-walk ratio led the league, and his 3.39 FIP suggests his performance outpaced his surface results.

The veteran owns a 3.58 career ERA across 330 starts, though Fenway Park has historically been a challenge. Gray is 0–4 with a 6.84 ERA in 26 1/3 innings at Fenway, with opponents hitting .326.

An emphasis on improving the infield defense will be key over the coming weeks with the addition of both Suarez and Gray.

Oviedo, 27, arrives as a high-upside project. He returned from Tommy John surgery in 2025 and made nine starts for Pittsburgh, posting a 3.57 ERA but a 4.92 FIP across 40 1/3 innings. Despite inconsistent command and lingering physical issues, Oviedo recorded a career-best 24.7 percent strikeout rate.

Before his injury, Oviedo logged 177 2/3 innings across 32 starts in 2023. At 6-foot-6 and 275 pounds, his 7.4-foot extension ranks in the 98th percentile, allowing his 95.5 mph fastball to play up in the zone. He complements it with a slider, curveball, sinker, and changeup—a profile that aligns with Boston’s emphasis on size, velocity, and pitch-shape development under Craig Breslow.

The projected core of Crochet, Suárez, Gray, Bello, and Oviedo is expected to cover 83.7 percent of Boston’s innings in 2026. Health across a full season is unlikely, but the Red Sox now possess both depth and upside to withstand inevitable attrition throughout the long grind of an MLB season. 

Despite the additions to the rotation, Crochet remains the centerpiece. He finished 18–5 with a 2.59 ERA across 32 starts in 2025, leading the American League in innings pitched (205 1/3) while pacing all of MLB with 255 strikeouts. His 11.18 K/9 led qualified AL starters, combining dominance with durability.

Statcast ranked Crochet in the 99th percentile in overall pitching run value. His fastball graded in the 95th percentile, his breaking pitches in the 99th, and even his off-speed offerings ranked above average. He paired a 31.3 percent strikeout rate with a 5.7 percent walk rate, producing a 5.54 strikeout-to-walk ratio—second in the AL behind only Skubal.

Crochet posted a 2.89 xERA, limited hitters to a .210 expected average, and held average exit velocity to 87.7 mph. His 49.3 percent ground-ball rate ranked in the 81st percentile, allowing him to neutralize damage even when contact was made.

That dominance carried into October. In his first postseason start for Boston, Crochet threw 117 pitches across 7 2/3 innings, striking out 11 and allowing just four hits. After surrendering a solo home run to Anthony Volpe in the second inning, he retired 17 straight Yankees, overpowering New York’s lineup.

Boston rewarded Crochet with a six-year, $170 million extension through 2031, including an opt-out after 2030 and escalators that could push the deal to $180 million. The $28.33 million AAV places him among the highest-paid starters in baseball. 

FanGraphs’ Steamer projections reinforce the belief that Crochet is line for another dominant season for the Red Sox. Crochet is forecast for 193 innings, a 3.01 ERA, and a 5.6 WAR season in 2026—third among all MLB starters, trailing only Skubal and Pirates phenom Paul Skenes.

With Crochet at the front, the Red Sox aren’t just deep on paper—they’re built around one of the most dominant left-handed starters in baseball. If Boston is going to make noise in October, (the need to get there first) the projections—and the roster—suggest they’ll need to do so with Crochet leading the way over the course of the full season.