FOXBOROUGH — The Patriots had a magical regular season, going 14-3 and winning the AFC East, which was beyond anyone's imagination, including their own.
It's not really going to mean anything if they don't beat the Chargers on Sunday night.
They're at home, in the cold, against a West Coast dome team that lost two All-Pro-level tackles long ago. They've used more plumbers' putty on their offensive line than Bob Vila.
If the Patriots lose, they'll invite the f-word: frauds. All the schedule narrative will be thrown back out again. They'll be mentioned with some of the biggest fraud teams in recent times to go one-and-done: Lions (15-2) in 2024, Vikings in 2024 (14-3) and 2022 (13-4), Steelers in 2020 (12-4) and 2017 (13-3), Colts in 2007 (13-3) and 2005 (14-2), the 2006 Chargers (14-2) and the 2010 Patriots (14-2).
Simply put: the Patriots can't lose this game. I mean, it's not going to change the fact that they're on a rapid upward trajectory — they're playing with house money this season with all their future assets still intact — but it's going to be a hard slap of reality that's going to send New England into a cold winter in the blink of an eye.
Do I think that's going to happen? We'll get to that. In the meantime, there's one big matchup that I keep coming back to: the Chargers' blocking apparatus (the line, tight ends, and fullback) and the Patriots' front seven.
By now, you know all the relevant stats, like how Justin Herbert was the third-most sacked quarterback, the second-most hit QB since 2020, and the second-most pressured QB. The run game wasn't all that much better, as the Chargers finished 22nd in rushing DVOA.
The Chargers' offensive line is one of the worst I've ever evaluated on film, and it's everything. But there are two areas where I think the Patriots can and will press the issue:
