FOXBOROUGH — The Patriots had a magical regular season, going 14-3 and winning the AFC East, which was beyond anyone's imagination, including their own.
It's not really going to mean anything if they don't beat the Chargers on Sunday night.
They're at home, in the cold, against a West Coast dome team that lost two All-Pro-level tackles long ago. They've used more plumbers' putty on their offensive line than Bob Vila.
If the Patriots lose, they'll invite the f-word: frauds. All the schedule narrative will be thrown back out again. They'll be mentioned with some of the biggest fraud teams in recent times to go one-and-done: Lions (15-2) in 2024, Vikings in 2024 (14-3) and 2022 (13-4), Steelers in 2020 (12-4) and 2017 (13-3), Colts in 2007 (13-3) and 2005 (14-2), the 2006 Chargers (14-2) and the 2010 Patriots (14-2).
Simply put: the Patriots can't lose this game. I mean, it's not going to change the fact that they're on a rapid upward trajectory — they're playing with house money this season with all their future assets still intact — but it's going to be a hard slap of reality that's going to send New England into a cold winter in the blink of an eye.
Do I think that's going to happen? We'll get to that. In the meantime, there's one big matchup that I keep coming back to: the Chargers' blocking apparatus (the line, tight ends, and fullback) and the Patriots' front seven.
By now, you know all the relevant stats, like how Justin Herbert was the third-most sacked quarterback, the second-most hit QB since 2020, and the second-most pressured QB. The run game wasn't all that much better, as the Chargers finished 22nd in rushing DVOA.
The Chargers' offensive line is one of the worst I've ever evaluated on film, and it's everything. But there are two areas where I think the Patriots can and will press the issue: stunts and run blitzes.
The Chargers, on film, are a disaster against stunts, with the most common one being when a defensive end heads inside to hit the guard with a hard pick, to free up the defensive tackle (Milton Williams or Christian Barmore) to replace him as the outside rusher, or vice versa (the DT picks the OT and edge dips inside). Those who know the Chargers better than I do say it's been an issue the past two seasons, but it's naturally worse without OTs Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt. The biggest culprit, and the guy I expect the Patriots to target, is RG Mekhi Becton, the former Jets OT tackle bust. He did fine last year with the Eagles and a great supporting cast, but he has zero awareness with no help around him.
Here's where the Patriots come in: they might be the best stunting team in the league, especially with Williams back. It's been a staple of the Mike Vrabel defense for years as it helps mitigate the need for dominating edge rushers, and it's basically how they rely on getting pressure (along with some coordinated blitzes in conjunction). And this interesting X post showed up this week, with the title, "Chargers OL prepare for third down stunts."
On third downs, the Patriots run stunts on 61% of snaps, by far the most in the league. The 49ers, Titans, Rams, and Cowboys are the only other teams over 50%.
I don't see any way the Chargers, all of a sudden, are going to block those up, unless they max protect on every dropback. But I asked David Andrews about it this week.
"Stunts, no, you can't get better at it in a week," the retired center said. "Dante (Scarnecchia) always used to say stunts start with individual technique. So if you don't have good technique, it doesn't matter, you're not going to block a stunt.
"To block stunts, the first thing you got to do is you got to take care of the penetrator. And a lot of teams nowadays, I feel like (offensive) linemen have gotten bigger and bigger, and they don't like to punch. They would rather catch pass rushers, you know, and kind of make pass rushers bull rush them. And so the biggest thing is you've got to stop the drive guy, the penetrator. And really, no stunt can be blocked by just one guy. It's got to take both guys. They got to be setting at the correct angles, correct depth. If the guard decides to jump set the three technique, that's great, but now, if they're running an (end-tackle stunt), you just screwed your tackle. So it's really all working together, you know, and the tackles got to be receptive to what's going on around him."
If individual technique is the key to stunting the stunts, well, let me tell you: the Chargers ain't got it anywhere on that offensive line. They're all bad, especially center Bradley Bozeman, Becton and RT Trey Pipkins, but returning LT Jaramee Salyer is supposed to be decent, and LG Zion Johnson, the BC product, isn't horrible.
So I expect the Patriots to have a field day with stunts on Sunday night, and Herbert will continue to take his Andrew Luck/Joe Burrow Memorial Beating.
The other thing is the running game. I have never seen so many free defenders come in unblocked and absolutely deck the running back near the line of scrimmage. And it's not because the Chargers are outnumbered against a stacked box. No, there's hat on a hat - or more - but the Chargers can't sort out their blocking assignments. Offensive coordinator Greg Roman runs a very diversified run game — I've heard rumors that he has 60 different runs in a weekly gameplan (I think the Patriots might have 15), which is an absurd amount (no wonder they're confused) — where he loves to pull people, trap, wham, crack block, outside zone, inside zone, pull two guys on OG and OT power, involve and extra lineman and a fullback ... and these dum-dums up front can't block it right. You'll see multiple pullers block the wrong person. You'll often see TWO blockers block the same person at the second level. You know what that does? It frees up an unblocked player — often the middle linebacker, or Swiss Army knife safety Derwin James to wreak havoc. It's often a freaking debacle.
I also expect the Patriots to press the issue with this by a) stacking the box and daring Herbert to beat them down the field with inconsistent Quentin Johnston in 30 degrees and 25 mph wind gusts, and b) constantly sending run blitzes to confuse the Chargers in their run blocking assignments. It really shouldn't be all that difficult.
That's why, to me, this game will be decided by the Patriots' defensive front against the Chargers' offensive front. You can talk all you want about the QBs and weapons. The Patriots' defense should dominate this game against the run and with pass rush. If they don't, winter is coming sooner than we all want.
What worries me about the Chargers (all stats used will be over the past 5 weeks)
QB Justin Herbert: I've already given my opinion on him, and his postseason "shortcomings." A guy who is that naturally gifted should always be feared. When you talk to NFL sources, especially those who see him twice a year, they all marvel about what he's done this season and feel that he has firmly established himself as one of the elite QBs in the league. And consider this, which Andrews brought up to me. Herbert's one of the most sacked and hit QBs in the league. His run game is 27th in stuff% (21% of carries). Yet they are fourth, converting 48.7% of third downs. "That doesn't make much sense," Andrews said. "And that's dangerous. It gives me pause about this game." BTW, he's two spots behind Maye in CPOE the past five weeks (not counting Week 18).
S/CB/LB Derwin James: The Chargers are 28th in base defense (18%), but are 15th (61%) and 4th (21%) in nickel and dime, respectively. The subpackages allow James to be a do-everything player, like Kyle Hamilton of the Ravens (where DC Jesse Minter came from). He can be a deep safety, slot corner or linebacker, and you often don't know what he's doing until well after the snap. Sometimes, they just let him do what he wants and read the QB. He's a playmaker, and a pain to the QB.
The Chargers' defense: They're good, but not infallible. 5th in points per drive. 6th in defensive passer rating. 3rd in explosive runs. 1st in rush success. 6th in EPA per play. 2nd in EPA/rush. 7th in EPA/dropback. 7th in third-down EPA. 2nd in average carry. 1st in interceptions/attempt (5.8%). 3rd in first downs per game. 3rd on 4th down, 6th in red zone, 4th in goal-to-go and 3rd in time of possession. And they didn't play slappies in those five weeks: Raiders (yes), Eagles, Chiefs and Cowboys. They've blitzed more in recent weeks, especially on third down. They have three very productive edge players (Tuli Tuipulotu, Khalil Mack, Odafe Oweh) who are long and strong. They have effective big dudes in the middle, namely Teari Tart and Da'Shawn Hand. The linebackers are fast. The top three cornerbacks are good: Tarheeb Still, Cam Hart and Donte Jackson. And it's a well-coordinated defense that prides itself on changing the picture post-snap, which every QB struggles with at times (Tom Brady vs. Rex Ryan), especially very young QBs making their first postseason start.
Where the Patriots can take advantage
Turnovers and fumbles: Herbert and the Chargers basically turn the ball over once per game (14 of 17 games). Herbert, since he broke his left hand, has fumbled five times. A bad line, constant pressure, and not much of a running game equals risk and turnovers.
Chargers' offensive line against the run and pass: Ibid.
No dangerous offensive weapons: Keenan Allen can still catch the ball, but he's slow and no YAC. Ladd McConkey is fine, but not a gamebreaker. Quintin Johnston is improved and a legit deep threat, but very inconsistent. Tre Harris is decent, but a rookie and a screen guy. Rookie TE Oronde Gadsden is soft with the drops. TE Will Dissly drops the ball a lot. Yeah, Herbert walked on water, getting this team to 11 wins.
Here's third down and fourth, which basically says DOUBLE KEENAN:
The safeties: Once James goes into the box, the Patriots have veterans Elijah Molden and Tony Jefferson, and occasionally sixth-round rookie RJ Mickens. Molden, a former player for Vrabel, factored into both of the Texans' busted coverage touchdowns in the first quarter of their matchup, and Jefferson is slow as molasses. I can almost guarantee you that Josh McDaniels is going to go after those guys with timely big plays. My over/under has moved up to 3.5 plays, and I think one finishes off the game.
(USA TODAY NETWORK)
Tuli Tuipulotu
Top matchups
LT Will Campbell vs. DE Tuli Tuipulotu: Tuli is the best edge rusher you haven't heard of, with 13 sacks and 60 pressures. He has the type of length that could give Campbell issues. He kicks inside on passing downs, so Campbell could also see Mack. Big challenge.
LG Jared Wilson vs. DT Teair Tart: He's really strong and good against the run. This is Wilson's first game back in two games. Can he hold up to open running lanes?
QB Drake Maye vs. James and LB Daiyan Henley: James, as we've talked about, it the chess piece. Henley is often used as a spy against running QBs. Against Jalen Hurts, he literally just stood there 3 yards behind the line, and then ran down Hurts repeatedly.
TE Hunter Henry vs. S Tony Jefferson: Chargers are not good against TEs when James is doing other things.
DT Christian Barmore vs. RG Mekhi Becton: The big fella is going to eat. A lot.
CB Marcus Jones vs. WR Ladd McConkey: This should be a good matchup between two good players.
CB Carlton Davis vs. WR Keenan Allen: I could see Christian Gonzalez taking him on third down, but this is a better speed matchup. Let's see if Davis can rebound.
LB Robert Spillane vs. QB Justin Herbert: We haven't yet seen the full Spillane when it comes to reading the eyes of QBs for INTs and pass breakups. There's some rust, but I could see a pick.
BEDARD'S GAME PICK
Season: 11-6 straight up, 8-9 spread.
Line: Patriots -3.5. O/U: 45.5.
A few more thoughts:
- I would not be surprised to see McDaniels try to keep James out of the box as much as possible by going big, imposing the run, and forcing the Chargers to go to base defense out of desperation.
- He will go spread early at some point (he tries everything early to gain information), and target those safeties. The Texans used double posts to confuse them.
- I expect the Chargers' receivers to turtle a bit in the elements catching the ball, but I will point out that the Chargers went to Arrowhead and beat the Chiefs with Patrick Mahomes, 16-1,3 when it was 15 degrees with a wind chill of 10 to start the game.
- Drake Maye needs to watch himself against this defense, which can go over the line at times.
- Nightmare scenario: Rhamondre Stevenson fumbles again, and Maye throws a confused pick at some point. That's fine, as long as it doesn't rattle him.
I think this is going to be a hard-fought physical game. Could the Patriots win in a blowout? Absolutely. I'd put the game chances as: 50% Patriots win by 3-10 points, 25% Chargers victory, 25% Patriots blowout.
This game is pretty simple to me. I don't see how the Chargers can block anything, which will put it all on Herbert again, and he's not a superhero. I think the Patriots are clunky on offense, but McDaniels dials up a couple of beauties that make the difference in this game. I'm sticking with my original prediction.
Patriots 24, Chargers 17.
