This is a very tempting time for the Celtics.
The team is 12-9 … 12-6 since their 0-3 start … and currently sitting in sixth in the East. They have won four of their last five, with wins over the top seed, who came in on a 13-game winning streak, the third seed, who came in on a four-game winning streak, and a team many picked to go to the NBA Finals.
They're not like me, getting fat on cupcakes in December. The Celtics’ seven wins over teams .500 or better is second only to the Pistons, who have eight. The Celtics are one of only nine teams in the league to play 14 or more games against teams above .500, and they're the only one without a losing record (they’re 7-7).
Things are good for the Celtics, and there's a real temptation to think they’ll get better. Jaylen Brown is fully realizing his powers as the top option, but we still haven't seen the best out of Payton Pritchard and Derrick White on a nightly basis. Meanwhile, Neemias Queta is surprisingly good, Jordan Walsh is a regular starter who just played the best six minutes of his life to close out the Knicks, and Josh Minott has come off the scrap heap to shoot better than 40% from 3.
If I told you that Minott would have a signature 3-point celebration in December that fans are tossing up at the Garden with him, you’d have thought I was nuts.
And then there are the standings. Boston is ahead of Cleveland, Atlanta, Philadelphia, and Milwaukee right now, and they're 4.5 games away from the first place Pistons, who have now lost three of their last five. The Raptors are in second but no one believes that will last. The Knicks are third but nothing about what we saw from them frightens me at all at the moment. Miami being fourth is like a pitcher mowing down the lineup the first time through … they’ll be figured out soon enough. Orlando is fifth, and Boston has beaten them in two of their three meetings.
Oh, and Jayson Tatum might come back this season.
There are reasons to be optimistic, even though it’s only December 4.
Now we’re in the part of the relationship where we have to figure out where it’s going. The first couple months of this have been surprisingly fun, but where is this going? What are we doing here? Is this just fun, or is it time to make a commitment?
Trade season opens on December 15, which is when most restrictions on trading players lifts. The rumors are already flying with some massive names. Giannis Antetokounmpo has reportedly met with the Bucks to “discuss his future.” The Hawks have looked fine without Trae Young, so how he handles his return could determine if he hits the market. There are rumblings about Ja Morant as well.
There are also teams that might just be due for re-tooling. The Clippers are a disaster at 6-16. The Kings are worse. The Pelicans are even worse than that, and all three of these teams came into the season planning on winning.
What should the Celtics do? They are better than we thought and they have the assets to make a move whenever they want and the East is more wide open than ever.
The answer, as always, is “it depends.”
There is a world where a win-now move makes sense, and that's to acquire a center they can depend on to be their starter. Ivica Zubac potentially being available, and the Clippers past interest in Anfernee Simons, makes it one move that makes sense to pursue. Grabbing Zubac and moving Neemias Queta to a backup role would give Boston one of the best frontcourts in the league.
The problem is how they get there. Welcome to apron hell.
Sending Simons for Zubac doesn’t work. The Clippers are hard-capped at the first apron, so they’ll need to send more. The one way this deal works for both sides is to send Simons and draft picks for Zubac and send Brook Lopez to a third team for an additional pick and cash. They could also just acquire Lopez and either leave him in their open roster spot or waive him and eat his salary for the year.
If the Clippers are happy with the set of picks Boston sends and a third team is willing to hang onto Lopez for the season, then we have ourselves a nice, clean deal and everyone can move on. Of course, Nico Harrison doesn’t run the Clippers, so they will undoubtedly open Zubac up for bidding to the entire NBA. And because he’s a very good player, some team out there might have more to offer than Simons and picks for a team that will be a contender for the next few years.
This is where things get dicey. It’s very easy to say “Simons and some picks for Zubac! Let’s do it!” It’s a different animal when the Clippers come back with a better offer and say “top this.” The question ends up being more than “should they make a win-now trade this season?” It’s “how far should they go to make that deal happen?” This is where temptation strikes.
We’ve all been somewhere where the discussions start moving out of our budge. Whether it’s a house, a car, a gift -- we’ve all had to come to grips with the possibility of over-spending to get to where we want to be. Some of us have made decisions we regret, and have ended up in a bind. Some of us have made other adjustments to make that decision a good one. What Boston does in the face of a tough decision could be what sends them back to the Finals or triggers an earlier-than-expected selloff.
They could very easily wait to see if Antetokounmpo ends up explicitly demanding a trade, or if one of the league’s other stars ends up moving in a complicated deal. The aprons make straight up deals almost impossible for max salaries, so the Celtics and Simons’ $27 million could be useful in facilitating a multi-team trade. For that, they would simply ask for a useful frontcourt player in return. Do they go big for someone like Zubac, or do they try to snag someone like Nick Richards and hope he becomes an underrated hit?
Brad Stevens is not afraid to pay for players in a trade he likes. He is shrewd, but he’s not Danny Ainge, who wants to win every trade at all costs. Ainge is actively trying to fleece the world, while Stevens is just trying to make the Celtics better. This trade season will be a test of Stevens’ and his front office’s discipline.
The potential for Tatum to come back this season and join a Celtics team floating in the middle of the playoff pack makes it very tempting to add now and try to make a run. But Tatum’s return shouldn’t be treated as much more than a rehab stint. He’ll be on a minutes restriction for a while as he learns how his body reacts to coming back from his Achilles tear. I wouldn’t make any moves, counting on him becoming “Jayson Tatum” again this season.
Moves will be available, and some will look like good ones. But Stevens has to avoid the temptation of overpaying for a run this season if it jeopardizes their ability maximize next season. The East is open, but there are no guarantees. The Celtics season is on an upswing right now, but the Celtics have also gotten lucky with injuries so far. There is undoubtedly a downward turn that they’ll have to navigate in the future. Just because some guys are playing out of their minds right now, it doesn’t mean they’ll do so all season.
This will be tricky dance for the Celtics. No one wants to waste an opportunity, but no one wants to overreact to one, either. The temptation to jump at a move will be there. Boston’s future rests on Stevens’ ability to stick to his limits and not go all-in too soon.