To prepare for training camp, we'll dive into some of the Patriots' newcomers by analyzing game film, projecting their roles on the team, going over strengths and weaknesses, and examining the best and worst-case scenarios, and bottom lines, as they begin their Patriots' careers. Next up: CB Carlton Davis.
Player: Carlton Davis III
Age: 28 (29 on Dec. 31)
Drafted height/weight: 6-1, 206
Former team: Lions
APY: $18 million
OverTheCap 2024 valuation: $3.043 million
Relevant stats from PFF
Games reviewed: 3 - Texans (Week 10), Vikings (Week 7), Rams (Week 1).
Role on former team: No. 2 (mostly) right cornerback to Terrion Arnold.
Role on Patriots: I don't know if they're going to have set sides to start since Christian Gonzalez just about split his time 50-50 between the right and left side, but Davis will be the No. 2 starting cornerback to Gonzalez.
Was he worth the money?: Right now, he's the 14th highest-paid cornerback in the NFL. That's fairly steep considering he was and is viewed as a No. 2 cornerback. However, after watching his film, I have no issue that Davis is worthy of that contract - IF he stays healthy, which he's never been able to do. In seven seasons, he's played in 89 of a possible 119 games. On average, he has missed 4.3 games per season. His previous four seasons, most recent first: 13 (knee), 12 (quad), 13 (concussion/groin/toe/hip), 10 games (shoulder) played. The Lions moved on from Davis after one season and replaced him with DJ Reed at $16 million per season. I would have taken Reed and his deal over Davis, but I really like Davis. If he can play 17 games per season, he's absolutely worth the money.
Game film analysis
Texans (highest-graded PFF game)
Vikings (lowest-graded PFF game)
Strengths: Good size with long arms, and he's a very loose athlete with great agility. Excellent burst and closing speed. ... Adept at man and zone coverage. Sticky in man coverage. Elite zone coverage as he processes mentally very quickly to sort out different route concepts. ... Busted coverages are extremely rare and really only happen due to a rare event like a slip on a Cooper Kupp touchdown (foot just got stuck in the turf, twisted his ankle a little). ... Willing tackler, not afraid of contact. ... Physical in man coverage but has a good sense to when to stop grabbing, like Stephon Gilmore. ... Elite ball skills (made two diving interceptions against the Texans). ... Can play anywhere in the secondary, including in the slot and safety. ... Smart player who anticipates patterns and traffic in man coverage. Very aware of his help and will dial up aggressive coverage if there's help over the top. ... Good enough speed, especially on vertical routes. Never saw him out of phase down the field.
Needs improvement: Exposes himself to concussion and shoulder injuries by putting his head down on too many tackles. ... Press man technique is a little spotty due to inconsistent hand placement. Could stand to improve his jamming, especially considering his long arms, which would help him improve on crossing patterns, probably his one weakness (Demario Douglas got him a few times in minicamp). ... Very grabby in coverage and will draw the occasional flag (14 penalties in 25 games the past two seasons). It's not a ton, especially considering the Lions were second in the league with 63% man coverage.
Best-case scenario: Davis plays all 17 games and is the Brandon Browner to Gonzalez's Darrelle Revis. In my opinion, Davis is way better than Browner, who was really just big and physical, was in his season with the Patriots. Davis has the ability to be a 1A cornerback, and there wouldn't be much of a drop should Gonzalez miss time (there would be from Davis to the next boundary cornerback).
Worst-case scenario: There are only two question marks with Davis: durability and penalties. If Davis isn't available for the key games down the stretch due to injury, they're screwed and the Patriots overpaid.
Bottom line: If Davis can find a way to play 16 or 17 games in the regular season, then Gonzalez and Davis should be one of the best cornerback tandems in Patriots history (I'd go with Mike Haynes and Raymond Clayborn). They're that talented. I'd say that Davis is the more consistent of the two, but Gonzalez hasn't come close to his ceiling yet. But Davis' injury history is scary and could be problematic.
