To prepare for training camp, we'll dive into some of the Patriots' newcomers by analyzing game film, projecting their roles on the team, going over strengths and weaknesses, and examining the best and worst-case scenarios, and bottom lines, as they begin their Patriots' careers. Let's start with defensive tackle Milton Williams, the big-ticket item in free agency.
Player: Milton Williams
Age: 26
Former team: Eagles
APY: $26 million
OverTheCap 2024 valuation: $6.504 million
Relevant stats from PFF
Games reviewed: 3 - Super Bowl vs. KC, New Orleans and Baltimore.
Role on former team: Williams was the No. 3 DT behind Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis - basically Williams platooned with Williams the pass rusher, and played mostly RDT. All three did see time on the field together against heavier run teams like the Saints and Ravens. He played 47.9% of the snaps. Williams did at times line up against the tackles and more than held his own.
Role on Patriots: Definitely a starter considering what they are paying him, likely at RDT opposite Christian Barmore.
Was he worth the money?: Right now, today? No, not even close. The OTC valuation is probably a little low, but it's in the ballpark. But you shouldn't be paying for current or past production, you're banking that a player like Williams, who has yet to play full-time as a starter, is going to play his best football going forward. You can certainly see why the Patriots signed him, but he's far from a finished product, and he's going to have to improve drastically to become worthy of being the third highest-paid DT in the game behind Chris Jones and Christian Wilkins. He certainly put up good stats last year and has improved every season, but that was with an all-star ensemble around him up front.
Game film analysis
Strengths: He really has no glaring weakness; he's a well-rounded player at the defensive tackle position. He does everything relatively well. He's got a good burst off the line. He's strong in both his upper and lower body. He can anchor a little in the run game against double teams - it's not a glaring weakness. He appears to be very smart as he often smells out screens and other deceptive plays. Communicates well up front. Very assignment-sure and plays well within the structure of the scheme. Very good balance and body control. Rarely on the ground or out of control.
Needs improvement: He really has no pass rush repertoire to speak of. This surprised me. My perception off of the Eagles' postseason run was that Williams was a dominating pass rusher. I wouldn't say he's that right now, but the Patriots are banking they can get him there. If you are expecting Williams to be the next Aaron Donald or even Jeffery Simmons, you're going to be disappointed. Williams is very unrefined as a pass rusher. He's pretty much just a power rusher without counter moves. Needs to develop a spin move, or several of them. Williams will occasionally win with a strong initial punch that gives him space to use his burst to track down quarterbacks. When he was left one on one against solid guards, Williams underwhelmed. The Ravens' Patrick Mekari largely handled Williams. He feasted on backups Oli Udoh (Saints) and Mike Caliendo (Chiefs). Williams did a lot of his damage working games up front. You don't pay $25 million a year for that. Williams is going to be expected to win a majority of his one-on-one battles for that kind of money. ... I'm sure he can get better against the run, but he was better than expected there.
Best-case scenario: Patriots are banking that coordinator Terrell Williams, defensive line coach Clint McMillan and Mike Vrabel can take Williams to the next level by unlocking his pass rush potential. Basically, they need to turn him into Jeffrey Simmons. In his third season with the Titans and under Vrabel, Simmons went from three sacks and 44 pressures to 14 sacks and 66 pressures in 2021.
Worst-case scenario: Williams is at his best as part of an ensemble and needs help from others to be effective. His periods of domination are few and far between, he doesn't win his one-on-one opportunities enough and he never puts up double-digit sacks. Also, there's a big question on whether he can handle a full-time role, something he's never been asked to do. That would fall into this category.
Bottom line: The Patriots had to go big, and players like Williams - ascending big men with their best football in front of them - rarely hit free agency. I can certainly see why the Patriots went after Williams hard, but there's also no question they are betting big on themselves being able to take Williams to the next level. He's a B player right now, but they are banking on him being an A player in short order.