Building a strong foundation for a football team starts with the ability to draft and develop. During Mike Vrabel's six-year tenure with the Titans, the drafts weren't very good. For every A.J. Brown, there's a Treylon Burks. For every Roger McCreary (second-round cornerback), there's a Caleb Farley.
You won't hit on every pick, but you can't have first-round selections be non-factors. For a three-year period, from 2020 to 2022, that's exactly what happened in Tennessee.
2018: Rashaan Evans (#22, LB, Alabama)
2019: Jeffery Simmons (#19, DT, Mississippi State)
2020: Isaiah Wilson (#29, T, Georgia)
2021: Farley (#22, CB, Virginia Tech)
2022: Burks (#18, WR, Arkansas)
2023: Peter Skoronski (#11, G, Northwestern)
Wilson is an all-time bust. He played in just one game in his rookie season, getting a grand total of four snaps. He was traded after less than 11 months in the organization and never appeared in an NFL game again. He's now trying to be a rapper...
A year later, the Titans took Farley, arguably as gifted a cornerback in that class. But he fell to the back half of the first round because of back surgery (the second of his career) and barely played, let alone develop into someone worthy of that selection. There was some bad luck involved; he tore an ACL, but he also herniated a disk in his back (how can you be surprised) and didn't get a second contract.
As for Burks, he was the choice made with the pick acquired from Philadelphia for Brown. There were questions about his conditioning, and he also has asthma. Burks has 53 career catches over three seasons. Not great.
When we met with Vrabel on Tuesday, he was asked if he had learned any lessons from previous drafts. This is his full answer.
"We took a couple guys with injuries that we thought were talented," he said. "Maybe what injuries as they fell, and that value got to the point where we were comfortable taking it. I think that's something that's critical. What's the ability for players to recover from one injury versus another injury? I think it is something that I learned.
"The impact that player makes and demands on a quote-unquote first-round pick,' I think, is something that's just like the quarterback. You don't have to be the face of the franchise, but everybody's going to be talking about the first-round pick from the time that we pick them for as long as they're here. So, that kind of gets carried with them, and I think you have to have the attitude and the demeanor to handle some of that."
Wilson and Burks couldn't carry the burden of those expectations in Tennessee. That has to be a part of the calculus for any team with their top pick, especially the Pats drafting at #4 overall. Players know what's being said about them, what's being written, and what's out there on social media, even if they're not (always) the ones actively searching for it. While this market isn't what it once was in terms of the level of critique offered daily by those closest to it (those on the beat), it's still intense, and the negative is often amplified by the sports yakkers on radio and TV. Vrabel knows that better than anyone; it takes a different kind of personality to survive the onslaughts.
But as Vrabel mentioned, "You can't win, and you can't do what we want to do with just a bunch of good dudes." That is why he briefly cut me off when I asked him the question about putting a premium on high-character guys in free agency, but also good football players...
"I think that's the most important thing (good players), but yes..."
Now, let's see if he and his trusted lieutenants (Ryan Cowden/John Streicher) have learned from their initial experience and have better first-round success this time around.
SEAT GETTING WARMER
Terron Armstead has retired. Tone-setter Calais Campbell spurned an offer and signed with Arizona. And now the Dolphins are trying to trade Jalen Ramsey. Is it safe to call this a reset year?
"No. That word has not been brought up at all,' said GM Chris Grier earlier this week. "We have a lot of really good football players on this roster still at some places that impact games, so that word has not been used at all. Our goal is to win, win this year and keep winning for sustained success in the future.”
After back-to-back playoff appearances under Mike McDaniel, the Fins took a step back last season, finishing 8-9. That may have been good enough for second place in the AFC East, but for a team that had made such a financial commitment to its core — aging in parts — that wasn't good enough. And instead of doubling down, Grier sat back in free agency, allowing Jevon Holland to walk (like Christian Wilkins the year prior). His biggest signing was a guard coming off an Achilles tear in James Daniels.
"For us, in a salary cap era, you just can’t keep – when you have high-priced players, and you’ve seen it around the league with other teams," he said. "So make decisions. We have 10 draft picks this year for the first time with that many draft picks so excited about that. But at the end of the day, we were just looking to sign some good players at prices that we felt comfortable paying, and that continues all the way through the draft and post-draft."
What's odd about the Ramsey scenario is that Grier said the player hadn't requested a trade, and internal conversations regarding him have gone on for weeks. Yet, in the interim, Miami paid the corner a $4 million roster bonus. This also comes eight months after they gave him a whopping extension that, if he's traded pre-June 1, will cost the team over $25 million against the cap. A post-June 1 deal will result in a $6 million hit this year and another $18 million next. That is what you call bad business, and after a decade in charge, it could help usher a change in the front office if Grier's vision doesn't result in a postseason appearance to cap the 2025-26 season.
CARR-VING UP THE QB POSITION
It wasn't hard to understand why the Saints were investigating draft-eligible quarterbacks this season. Derek Carr has been a disappointment — shocker — and after going through the contract rigamarole with him, they were likely headed into the last year of their marriage. But it turns out they had an additional motivation: Carr has a pre-existing shoulder injury that may cost him most, if not all, of the upcoming season (if he has surgery). This news reportedly came as no surprise to New Orleans, and with a high pick - 9th overall - the Saints could either grab the best available or, if need be, trade up to get one (Shedeur Sanders/Jaxon Dart).
There's also the possibility of...you guessed it...Aaron Rodgers. The Saints' situation isn't nearly as good as that of the Steelers, where the veteran signal-caller has been heavily linked, but no one is entirely sure what motivates Rodgers. Championship? Location? Money? New Orleans doesn't have loads of cap space (when has that ever stopped anyone?), but that division is hardly a murderer's row.
Or perhaps Rodgers is still playing the long game and hoping the Vikings will reconsider their commitment to J.J. McCarthy this season. Albert Breer detailed the 41-year-old's pitch to Minnesota, which included a willingness to mentor McCarthy (eye roll). But the Vikes want to give their former Michigan man a clear path to assume the controls and lead their franchise for years to come.
If that's the case - and who knows exactly when Rodgers makes his decision(he told 'The Pat McAfee' show there is no timetable) - the Saints could be left at the altar with just Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener under contract. Rattler is a fifth-round pick. Haener is a fourth. The two went 0-7 when Carr missed time with a multitude of injuries, and Rattler completed just 57% of his passes for four TDs and five INTs.
THEY BO-LIEVE!
At this time, a year ago, the Denver Broncos were in a position similar to New Orleans. Now? Not so much.
“I appreciate not being in that quarterback market,” Sean Payton told reporters at the league meetings. "When you don’t have it right, it’s one of those positions that can kind of consume you as an organization.”
Bo Nix allowed Payton and the organization to feel that way. He beat out Jarrett Stidham and Zach Wilson to become the opening-day starter. He led the Broncos into the postseason, throwing for over 3,700 yards, 29 touchdowns, and just 12 interceptions.
"We're all searching for that, for that rookie quarterback who has franchise skills," said GM George Paton after Denver's playoff loss in Buffalo. "I think we have that. So, what do we do? We just keep building."
What's interesting about the build is how much of what Payton and Paton did ended up helping an already strong defense with the signings of former 49ers Dre Greenlaw and Talanoa Hufanga.
“We’re a team players want to play for, and certainly we’re a city that’s very appealing for athletes to want to live,” said Payton. “And I think a lot of that is a result of maybe some of the early success we had last year with a young quarterback.”
The Broncos also added tight end Evan Engram and, wait it for, former Pats assistant Evan Rothstein. Yeah, that guy. Apparently, it was years and years in the making, with Payton saying he tried to hire Rothstein after his tenure under Matt Patricia in Detroit.
“This guy is something. … Having interviewed him, it was just, the minute I felt he was available, it was just, ‘Where’s Evan at this year?' It's kind of like the Russian hockey player that you’re not sure you can find in the draft. He finally came available.”
Perhaps that will work out for Denver in ways it didn't here in New England.
CHANGE COMING?
It's been a brutal few months for Mark Andrews. The Ravens' tight end had a costly drop near the end of the Ravens' 27-25 playoff loss to the Bills that would have tied the game. He then drew more heat for skipping post-game availability and the day after as well.
During his pre-draft press conference on Tuesday, GM Eric DeCosta was asked if the veteran tight end, who had a monster second half of the season for Baltimore but counts for nearly $17 million against the salary cap, would be back.
“I never know what’s going to happen, and I would never want to say this or that, but I can tell you this: Mark Andrews is a warrior, and he’s played his butt off for us, and his competitiveness, his talent, his attitude, his leadership is so valued here."
If the Ravens were to part ways with Andrews, they'd save $11 million. They have Isaiah Likely as an emerging player, but he is entering the final year of his deal. Knowing that Lamar Jackson likes to work the middle of the field makes keeping both for this season logical, but beyond that?
“He’s a great player, and we’re in the business of keeping as many great players as we can, so there’s always a lot of unpredictability with the draft. You just never know," said DeCosta.
Andrews turns 30 in September.