The Commanders are in the NFC Championship game today in great measure because they struck gold — accidentally — with an overnight rebuild that may start to show cracks after this season. You don't return only 19 players from the previous season and feel like you're going to be a contender. That just doesn't happen very often, if at all. The Commanders caught lightning in a bottle and were very fortunate, especially on the injury front.
But their success was certainly instructive to other teams, including the Patriots. It will be interesting to see if Mike Vrabel and Ryan Cowden are more amenable to bringing in bridge mid-tier free agents to jumpstart the team. That approach is somewhat of a blindspot for Eliot Wolf because his formative years were spent under Ted Thompson with the Packers, who stayed dedicated to the draft and rarely used free agency.
However, when Wolf (and Alonzo Highsmith) went to the Browns under John Dorsey in 2018, they did find some success with a dual-track rebuild. The Browns were 0-16 in 2017. Even sticking with Hue Jackson as coach - and him lasting half the 2018 season — the Browns improved to 7-8-1. Cleveland brought in a slew of veteran free agents to start and help the depth.
Brought in: TJ Carrie (Raiders), Darren Fells (Lions), E.J. Gaines (Bills), Chris Hubbard (Steelers), Carlos Hyde (49ers), Jeff Janis (Packers), Mychal Kendricks (Eagles), Ross Martin (Jets), Terrance Mitchell (Chiefs), Greg Robinson (Lions), Chris Smith (Bengals), Drew Stanton (Cardinals), Joel Stave (Jets), Donald Stephenson (Broncos).
The Browns were busy on the trade front - in and out.
Brought in: Jarvis Landry from Dolphins for No. 123 overall in 2018, 2019 7th rounder; Tyrod Taylor from Bills for No. 65 overall; Damarious Randall, No. 114; and No. 150 overall for DeShone Kizer, No. 101 and No. 138 overall.
Traded out: Danny Shelton and Jason McCourty to the Patriots, Cody Kessler to the Jaguars, Kevin Hogan to the Redskins, Jamar Taylor to the Cardinals, Corey Coleman to the Bills.
So I would expect this new regime to be busy this offseason retooling the roster. We'll get into the options of who may be coming in once free agency is a little clearer, but let's look at the Patriots players who may be out.
We know Vrabel is looking for three things in a player, through his own words: "To put the team first, to know what to do, and play fast and aggressive." We also know "effort" and "finish" are non-negotiables. I would also put toughness and loving football high up the list.
Given those factors, which Patriots could be on the outside looking in?
PLAYERS THAT ARE GOOD INITIAL FITS, MAYBE JUST A LITTLE TWEAKING
WR: Kendrick Bourne, Demario Douglas, Kayshon Boutte, Ja'Lynn Polk.
OL: David Andrews, Ben Brown, Cole Strange, Layden Robinson, Jake Andrews.
TE: Hunter Henry, Austin Hooper, Jaheim Bell.
QBs: Drake Maye, Joe Milton.
RBs: Rhamondre Stevenson.
DL: Keion White, Christian Barmore, Jeremiah Pharms, Anfernee Jennings.
LB: Ja'Whaun Bentley, Jahlani Tavai.
CB: Christian Gonzalez, Marcus Jones, Alex Austin, Isaiah Bolden, Marcellas Dial.
S: Kyle Dugger, Jabrill Peppers, Brenden Schooler, Dell Pettus.
QUESTIONABLE SCHEME FIT
RB Antonio Gibson: Love the player and his versatility is intriguing but he's more of a zone scheme back. Will that fit here?
QB Jacoby Brissett: I'd be surprised if he sticks.
LG Sidy Sow: Not very powerful.
DE Deatrich Wise: Great leader and pro but the Patriots will be looking for better.
LB Sione Takitaki: Never really fit here and I don't think that's going to change now.
S Jaylinn Hawkins: One of the least memorable players from last season's defense? Vrabel gets impact from his safeties.
PLAYERS WHO WILL BE EVALUATED CLOSELY FOR LATER DETERMINATION
RG Mike Onwenu: Provided he gets with the program, reports in good shape and continues his late season flourish, he should be fine. But given his salary and his slow start last year, I don't think it's a given.
NT Davon Godchaux: He obviously fits in any scheme, but I do have some question about whether he is Vrabel and Terrell Williams' type of player. Could they go with a youth movement? Would depend what happens in the draft and free agency.
WR Javon Baker: Had a lot of character red flags coming out in the draft, and ran his mouth at times under the previous regime. Certainly has some talent but if doesn't buckle down early, I could see the coaching staff wanting to move on.
OT Caedan Wallace: Had some toughness questions during the draft evaluation process and with the Patriots figuring to do a massive tackle rebuild, they could look to move on via trade at some point if it's clear he's not part of the plan.
OTs Vederian Lowe/Demontrey Jacobs: Possibly one is still here by the end of the offseason.
S Marte Mapu: Was one of those Belichick picks that was a matchup type. I think Vrabel will be looking for better overall football players but he'll get a look.
CB Jonathan Jones: Unquestioned toughness so I think he's a Vrabel guy, but what position is he now? Can he still play corner full-time? Is he big/durable enough to make the transition to safety?
NICKEL PACKAGE
1. A fresh start is exactly what Ja'Lynn Polk needs, and he'll get it with Josh McDaniels. If the previous staff remained, I'm not sure how much of a chance Polk would have (I'm assuming a new WR coach would have been brought in). But McDaniels and Vrabel see player development the same way: they'll tailor the plan to the player. Kendrick Bourne needed a lot of his help his first season, and he got it from McDaniels and Mick Lombardi (who I'd love to see back at WRs coach). It produced his best season. Polk will get similar treatment.
"When you talk about Josh, I think schematically and the way he teaches the quarterback. The versatility of the offense and the base foundation of the offense. His growth in that offense, trying to put conflict on the defense and the way he structures a gameplan, having gone against him and seen the system here as a player," said Vrabel. "It has evolved and there is a lot more to it than that. I know from our conversations that he's worked hard and studied, visited and met with people, and we're going to continue to add things that we feel helps our players and give us an advantage to score touchdowns and take care of the football."
Seems like Vrabel isn't worried about the Patriots being boring and uncreative.
3. In the same interview, it sounds like from Vrabel's comment on Drake Maye that he will be getting at least some new terminology from McDaniels.
“He’s exciting, talented, ready to learn and ready to continue to develop. He’s athletic and mobile, has the ability to make throws to all part of the field with arm talent,” Vrabel said. “But every year is a new process. There will be some new terminology, and some carryover from what he’s had. I know that he’s ready to learn and is excited. We welcome that and want him to lead our football team.”
Given how smart Maye showed himself to be as a rookie, I don't think this is going to be an issue. I'd be worried if he had been in a different system for two seasons.
4. The Patriots may have hired former Browns assistant Ashton Grant as an offensive assistant to help with QBs, but make no mistake, McDaniels will be the voice in Drake Maye's ear. It will be similar to the positions that Bo Hardegree and Jerry Schulplinski held to help the room.
5. Conference game picks
Commanders at Eagles (-6): I don't think the Commanders can hold up against the Eagles' line and rushing attack, but Jalen Hurts' injury status is going to limit the damage if he's not a real threat to keep the ball. I like the Eagles in a close one. Eagles 30, Commanders 27.
Bills at Chiefs (-1.5): I think this is the best version of the Bills that the Chiefs have faced due to the physicality of the Buffalo line and running game, including Josh Allen. But the Bills are one receiver short of taking advantage of KC's shortage at cornerback. The injury to Bills safety Taylor Rapp will loom large. Rookie Cole Bishop gets the start and will be targeted. Another close one. Chiefs 23, Bills 20.
