Not great timing this week with the holiday season, so this might be a little lighter than normal. But we'll give you all the relevant details from the film study. Hope you and yours enjoy the week with family, and that's for your continued support of BSJ. We literally can't do it without you.
For the first time in a long time - not sure the Jets and Bears wins count in this regard - the Patriots' defense and DeMarcus Covington took the field with a focused gameplan aimed at limiting what an opponent does best against Josh Allen and the Bills.
I'm sure this borrowed a lot from Bill Belichick, but it was encouraging to see the Patriots enter this game with two clear objectives, and largely execute. The Patriots made a concerted effort to limit Allen's running via disciplined pass rush and, more often than not, a spy. Allen rushed six times for 30 yards, but had a long of just 12 yards - when Deatrich Wise ran way past him and gave Allen free access to the second level. There were no back-breaking and demoralizing runs over 20 yards. Allen rushed 11 times for 68 yards against the Lions (long of 21), 10 for 82 (30) against the Rams and 12 for 55 (26-yard touchdown to seal the game) against the Chiefs.
The Patriots also seemed fully aware that the Bills' weapons were not at all dangerous, but they wanted to make sure Allen didn't have easy access to them in zone coverage. The Patriots played their fourth-highest percentage of man coverage of the season (44.8%) and of the top five man games, three delivered victories.
That Covington and the Patriots delivered a well-reasoned gameplan - and executed it against a good team - was a promising sign. Quite frankly, after 14 games, we weren't sure they were capable of that - even with divisional institutional knowledge (see the first matchups with Aaron Rodgers, who they didn't face last year, and Tua Tagovailoa). So a good checkmark.
Did want to tip my cap for two calls: the 3rd and 10 five-man pressure that resulted in Allen's only sack in the third quarter was creative and flummoxed the QB, and the six-man pressure on the very next play to start the next drive was nicely done. Of course, we'll also point out Covington had another puzzling playcall early in the fourth quarter when, on first and 16, he sent a blitz that resulted in Khalil Shakir being wide open for a 12-yard gain.
However - and you knew there was a but coming - the Bills were also complicit in their own demise, especially Allen. The Bills' offense was sloppy with at least two key drops (and possibly another in the end zone), offensive coordinator Joe Brady went away from the run, and Allen had an off night.
“Got to come out in the first half ready to play,” Allen said after the game. “And I don’t think that’s something that we did great today. Missed some opportunities. Wish I had a few back. That’s every game, but glad our defense and our special teams can step up. They scored on defense, obviously, and we won the turnover battle again, and it’s complementary football, and our defense had our back today."
I don't usually grade the opposing QB, but it was glaring in this one. I had Allen for 10 minus plays in this game, and they broke down like this: 6 poor decisions (including the colossally dumb interception to no one that looked like one of his plays from 2018 or '19), 2 passes were late and 2 were poor throws. Throw in the drops by Khalil Shakir (the one in the end zone was thrown late) and Amari Cooper, and that's 12 unforced errors on Allen's 35 dropbacks (34%). PFF gave Allen his second-worst passing grade of the season.
Allen seemed to revert back to his old gunslinger ways. He appeared to be looking deep for the knock-out punch when he had plenty of options to throw shorter if he was more patient. Allen's 12.2 depth of target was his third-highest of the season, and the only two higher were in domes at Houston and Los Angeles - not outdoors in Buffalo in December. Too much of the old Josh Allen Hero Ball in this one. Apparently the possible MVP hasn't totally outgrown that, but he was also probably drooling at facing the Patriots after shootouts with the Lions, Rans, 49ers and Chiefs in successive games.
Of course, Brady could have helped out his quarterback. Why the Bills had 35 dropbacks and only 22 designed runs was downright puzzling by Brady. The Bills averaged 6.1 yards per attempt. And after James Cooks' 46-yard touchdown, the Bills passed on eight of the next nine plays despite it looking like the Bills could run at will on the Patriots and their often two-shell look.
So, like we said, we'll take the approach from the Patriots' coaches, but we wouldn't say they've turned a corner. The Bills' offense wasn't up for this one. Need to see the Patriots do it again.
Here are the positional ratings against the Bills:
OFFENSE
Quarterback (2.5 out of 5)
From 10,000 feet, that was a good performance from Drake Maye. To know he has no issue going up to Buffalo, even in the cold and performing in that environment, is a great thing to check off for this franchise since the division goes through Allen and the Bills. ... Maye came out on fire with standout throws to Hunter Henry on 3rd and 8 and, of course, the perfect pass to Kayshon Boutte for the touchdown. On the second drive, Maye had a great scramble for 10 on 3rd and 9, another tight third down throw to Henry. ... He did this with Sean McDermott throwing the kitchen sink at him with pressure, including two six-man pressure on the first three plays. Have never seen the Bills blitz that much (18 times, and including an amazing 10 six-man pressures). That's unheard of, and Maye never flinched. ... Loved the way he calmly threw out of his end zone twice after the Marte Mapu interception. The kid is unflappable. ...I'm still not overly bothered by the turnover thing. The interception was a panic move under pressure that he'll learn from. The lateral was shared between Alex Van Pelts, Demontrey Jacobs and Maye. It was a stupid playcall. Van Pelt called a play from the New England 12 that was way over the skis of his players to execute in that spot, in that stadium and in that area of the field. ... Sloppy and unnecessary footwork led to the miss of a wide-open Kayshon Boutte. At times, Maye lacked patience in the pocket and ran into another four QB pressures in this one. Maye and the "team" (scheme, tight coverage, the defensive call just being better) combined to allow half the 22 pressures.
Here's my grading of the first-half offensive film:
Running backs (2.5 out of 5)
Can't have a high grade when both backs fumble (Stevenson lost his), and both allowed hurries. Stevenson's TD run was an electric throwback to his power back days in the previous offense. ... Antonio Gibson again had two dynamite pass blocks.
Receivers (4 out of 5)
As far as execution goes, this was pretty good out of this group against a Bills defense missing four starters. There were only three minus plays in this group, and all three were from Hunter Henry's blocking (two stuffs, including a hold, and another poor run block). .... Austin Hooper was outstanding in this game, especially with his blocking with four standout run blocks and another one pass blocking. Of course, his leaping 26-yard reception over the middle was ballsy. ... Boutte had the TD, a great sliding 23-yard catch and drew a pass interference. ... Henry had the two third-down grabs and the TD. ... It's still puzzling how Demario Douglas is not more involved in the gameplan with simple touches in space.
Offensive line (3 out of 5)
This group was actually not that bad, especially to start the game, considering the Bills set out to put the screws to them. ... Obviously Demontrey Jacobs had a very challenging game, but he did lead the line with two plus run blocks, including one on Stevenson's TD. Van Pelt is still not helping the situation by not giving a guy like Jacobs more help. Henry was asked to pass block just six times, and Hooper one. ... Teams are attacking Layden Robinson with pressures through his gap. It's on film that he does not, as a rookie, think quickly on his feet. ... If you savaged Vederian Lowe last week, give it up to the big fella for bouncing back strong with just one pressure and two minus plays. ... Mike Onwenu continued his strong run of play with only one pressure, but it caused Maye's interception. ... Ben Brown was great with a clean pass blocking sheet and only one minus run block.
DEFENSE
Defensive line (2.5 out of 5)
Basically, Jeremiah Pharms' inspired play (6 impactful plays) offset Anfernee Jennings' terrible performance (5 minus plays). Jennings missed two tackles and blew three edges. ... Wise had an inexcusable rush past Allen for a 12-yard run. ... This could have been worse if the Bills stayed on the ground. ... Mostly uneven play from the rest of the group. ... I do think Keion White has been asked more to respect the rush lanes (which he didn't do earlier in the season) against the likes of Kyler Murray and Allen in the last two games, but his lack of recent production is startling. Through the Rams' game, White averaged six impactful plays a game. In the last four, he's averaged three.
Linebackers (2.5 out of 5)
Jahlani Tavai was very solid, and Christian Ellis had three impactful plays. But he also had three minus plays, including a run edge for 25 yards and poor pass coverage for 17. ... Sione Takitaki continues to look lost against the run.
Secondary (3.5 out of 5)
Would be higher but Kyle Dugger was late and Marte Mapu took a terrible angle on Cooks' 46-yard touchdown run - and Marte ran the ball out of the end zone. ... Very strong bounceback game for Dugger outside the touchdown and a missed tackle. ... Mapu made some flashy plays (interception, pass breakup, half sack, hurry and forced fumble), but he also had his share of miscues. ... Christian Gonzalez and Jonathan Jones had very strong man coverage games. ... Alex Austin appeared to get benched at one point.
THREE UP
DT Jeremiah Pharms: The big man brought the pressure up front, including on Allen's mindless interception.
TE Austin Hooper: The epitome of tough with his blocking work and leaping grab among four Bills.
WR Kayshon Boutte: Considered Brown and Dugger, but Boutte deserves flowers for his best game.
THREE DOWN
RT Demontrey Jacobs: Allowed four knockdowns, committed two penalties and failed to execute a cutblock that turned into a Bills touchdown.
DE Anfernee Jennings: I can't remember him playing a worse game on the edge. Totally ineffective.
LG Layden Robinson: Not a terrible performance but teams are watching the film and sending pressure his way all the time.