The Patriots are playing out the string here against three good opponents, starting with the Cardinals (13th in DVOA) today and finishing with the Bills twice (4th) and Chargers (9th). But everything is about 2025 and beyond for the Patriots (31st). With that in mind, here are five things we'd like to see from New England down the stretch to make us feel a little bit better about where they're going:
1. Be a pain in the ass.
When you're talking about a rebuilding team in the first year with a head coach, you want to see some momentum at the end of the season to continue the buy-in for Year 2, when things tend to get a little rocky after the honeymoon phase. Bill Parcells saw the 1993 Patriots go 4-0 in the final month - and they were in dogfights basically since Week 4. Bill Belichick's 2000 Patriots were 3-3 to end the season. Dan Campbell's 2021 Lions were 3-3 down the stretch. Heck, even Nick Saban's 2005 Dolphins started 3-7 and won their final six games before he screwed everything up by choosing an injured Daunte Culpepper over Drew Brees heading into 2006.
Jerod Mayo, at various points this season, said he wanted the Patriots to be "that team that no one wants to play at the end of the season." Good goal to have, but for parts of this season that has not happened. The opportunity is there now.
Another team with a rookie head coach and talent-challenged roster, the Carolina Panthers, have become that team with wins over the Saints and Giants, and very competitive losses against the Chiefs (3 points), Buccaneers (OT, 3 points) and the Eagles (6 points where Xavier Legette dropped a game-winning touchdown) in the past five games. There's no reason not to expect the Patriots to be capable of doing the same thing. The Panthers appear to be building something into 2025 with Bryce Young. Can the Patriots do that?
2. Show you're still the Patriots defense.
The Patriots have dropped from 9th in defensive DVOA to 31st this season. You can make all the excuses you want about injuries, but there's really no reason to fall that far. The teens would have been acceptable.
The biggest frustration this season has been the Patriots' inability to make their opponent play lefthanded, something that was a staple of this program under Belichick. It's time for DeMarcus Covington - and if he needs help, Mayo as well - to show that ability again. Patriots have had a week off to prepare for the Cardinals, have Christian Barmore with reps under his belt, and Jabrill Peppers back. We should expect to see some improvement down the stretch, or that's a signal big changes need to be undertaken on that side of the ball.
3. Get Ja'Lynn Polk going.
Dumping on the second-round pick has become a recreational activity in these parts but there's still time for him to feel good about this season, which could propel him to better things in 2025. Getting Polk going in these final four games should have been a focus of this coaching staff coming out of the bye week - and that includes getting Drake Maye and Polk a lot of work together. There should be a package of plays both have drilled and feel comfortable with, especially going against a zone-heavy Cardinals defense. Would be nice to see Polk come out with 20 catches for 200 yards and a few touchdowns in the final four games. It's on Alex Van Pelt and receivers coach Tyler Hughes to make that happen. Figure it out.
4. Time for Christian Barmore to dominate.
The defensive tackle will cross the 100-snap threshold in this game. That's enough time to start showing us why they paid him so well in the offseason, and to feel good about him being a star on the line in 2025.
Barmore has three pressures in three games this season. He averaged 3.2 per game to finish 2023, and he had six games with at least four pressures. Patriots need to show they have impact players on all three levels of the defense. They have one in Christian Gonzalez, and nothing on the second level. Need to make sure they have one up front and then they can add pieces around Barmore.
5. Let Drake cook a little bit more.
I don't really need to see Drake Maye cut down on the turnovers this season - that will happen over time with experience. And some of his needed mechanical issues can be targeted in the offseasons to come, just like Josh Allen as a young player. We know Maye is good and the future is bright, but I would like to test Maye a bit more in the final four games by opening some things up. I'd like to see a few more shot plays, and I would like to see them incorporate his legs into the offense, especially in the red zone.
It's good to get stuff on film to know exactly what Maye is or isn't good at, especially if you are entertaining switching out coordinators. And it also wouldn't hurt the free-agent (and coordinator) recruiting efforts if there's a few more wow plays from Maye down the stretch.
NICKEL PACKAGE
1. Curious comment from Belichick about the Patriots heading into next season from his podcast, Coach.
"Again, we'll see with the direction of this program, really where that goes with (Eliot) Wolf, with Mayo, or maybe somebody else is a part of this too, I don't know."
2. It could end up happening if he doesn't have other options, but most in the know would be surprised if Matt Patricia landed at North Carolina with Belichick. There's a belief Patricia, 50, needs to re-establish his coaching career away from Belichick. Joe Judge is expected to remain at Ole Miss. Josh McDaniels is expected to test NFL options this offseason.
3. Bills-Lions is obviously a fascinating matchup today as a possible Super Bowl matchup (bummed the Patriots game is at the same time). One thing I'll be interested to see, especially when it comes to the Patriots facing the Bills twice, is whether or not the Bills' secondary can hold up against another team (like the Rams) that can run the ball. That could be their kryptonite this season.
4. Interesting comments from Joe Burrow this week about the Bengals possibly retaining WR Tee Higgins, which would really but a blow for the Patriots this season.
“I’m confident we are going to be able to do what it takes to bring Tee back,” Burrow said. “I know that I am going to do what it takes to get him back. So he can have those talks; those are going to be offseason discussions. I think we are excited about that opportunity.”
5. BEDARD'S PICK
Season: 4-7-2 spread, 8-5 straight up.
Line: Cardinals -6, 46 o/u
Watching the film of the Cardinals' 30-18 loss to the Seahawks last week I immediately thought we were headed for a shootout. Couldn't see the Patriots stopping RB James Conner, who is one of the best backs in the league, and QB Kyler Murray at the same time. And the Cardinals playing a ton of zone coverage without many playmakers in the front seven (stay away from safety Budda Baker) seemed primed for a big Drake Maye game.
But in talking with a few NFC assistants this week, they pointed to the Vikings and 49ers games where the Cardinals' defense was a pain in the rear and beat up both teams up front. They also played more man coverage because they were not afraid of the weapons, especially against the 49ers. The same thing could play out today.
The Cardinals have lost three straight and they’ve been sloppy - too many flags, Murray has now thrown five interceptions in the last three games … but don’t sleep on them. Their last three losses have come to the Seahawks twice, Vikings … no slouches. Their other losses: Bills, Lions, Commanders, Packers. All their losses are to playoff teams. If that counts for anything, this could be a tough game for the Patriots and a get-right game for the desperate Cardinals. But I have faith in Maye after a bye week.
Cardinals 30, Patriots 23
