The Patriots are at the bye week, finally, after 13 weeks. Have to be honest, it's been a long season to this point and almost every game feels about the same at this point with the Patriots coming up short unless they're going against a coaching staff in freefall (Jets, Bears). Don't have a lot of big answers for this team at this point, other than the coaching staff digging deep to find a way to create game-changing plays on both sides of the ball, and for them to stop coaching scared and embrace everything that Drake Maye brings to the table.
Let's just dig into Maye's day, which was the highest-graded Patriots QB game of this season (just edging out Jacoby Brissett in Week 1) and the best since three Mac Jones games as a rookie, with analysis and film study:
PLUS (12.5)
First half
3-7-IND 36 (13:05) (Shotgun) D.Maye pass short right to H.Henry pushed ob at IND 27 for 9 yards (N.Cross).
Gets away with a half-beat late throw (the one in the second half was perfect) with great ball placement and a tough catch from Hunter Henry.
2-5-NE 35 (4:32) (Shotgun) D.Maye scrambles left guard to IND 24 for 41 yards (N.Cross).
Great run, bad defense by Gus Bradley.
1-10-IND 24 (3:40) (Shotgun) D.Maye pass short left to A.Hooper pushed ob at IND 13 for 11 yards (J.Jones)
Eludes the rush and throws on the move to Hooper.
1-10-IND 13 (3:07) D.Maye pass short middle to H.Henry to IND 2 for 11 yards (Z.Franklin; E.Speed).
Another off-platform throw to Henry down to the 2 before the holding penalties happen. ... On the Stevenson Wildcat play, Layden Robinson false-started (not called) and Michael Jordan held more than Mike Onwenu did.
2-7-IND 16 (4:07) (Shotgun) D.Maye pass short left to A.Hooper for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Perfect ball placement and great catch by Hooper, who was not helped by Ja'Lynn Polk not finishing his clearout route.
2-15-NE 37 (2:00) (Shotgun) D.Maye pass short middle to K.Bourne to IND 47 for 16 yards (J.Blackmon)
Just a great job by Maye looking left to move the linebacker so he could thread the in-cut into Bourne. High-level quarterbacking.
2-19-IND 40 (:50) (Shotgun) D.Maye pass short right to K.Boutte to IND 11 for 29 yards (Z.Franklin).
Showed great patience and toughness to wait for Boutte to clear and deliver a pass while he's about to be hit.
Second half
1-10-IND 40 (4:22) D.Maye scrambles left end pushed ob at IND 36 for 4 yards (G.Stuard)
Typical boot action didn't fool anyone and a Colt was waiting for Maye as he turned back around. If the play was set up better with more wide zone runs earlier, maybe Maye has a chance to hit an open Kayshon Boutte. But Maye doesn't have a chance to turn his shoulder and has no choice but to beat the end around the corner get something.
3-6-IND 36 (3:34) (Shotgun) D.Maye pass short right to H.Henry to IND 24 for 12 yards (N.Cross).
Probably my favorite play of the game. Colts bring six, Maye throws the out to Henry before he's out of his break and the ball placement was perfect as he takes a hit. Doesn't get any better than that.
2-10-IND 43 (12:26) (Shotgun) D.Maye pass short middle to K.Bourne to IND 25 for 18 yards (N.Cross).
Slightly holds the linebacker and delivers a perfect slant to Bourne in traffice.
1-10-IND 25 (11:44) D.Maye scrambles right end pushed ob at IND 19 for 6 yards (R.Davis)
The same play as the first play just back to the other side. Didn't have anything and outran a DB to the edge.
3-3-IND 18 (10:18) (Shotgun) D.Maye pass short right to A.Hooper pushed ob at IND 11 for 7 yards (S.Womack).
Great anticipation throw before Hooper is out of his break.
MINUS (6.5)
First half
1-7-IND 7 (11:19) (Shotgun) D.Maye sacked ob at IND 7 for 0 yards (sack split by Z.Franklin and K.Paye)
Despite Gibson stumbling, he was open on the type of underneath throw you need to make against zone defense like this (think James White in Falcons Super Bowl). Maye bailed a little early on this and escaped out of the back of the pocket (ala Caleb Williams), which isn't wise in goal-to-go. ... The third-down sack before the field was a team sack. Nobody was open and it was 3.5 seconds from the 5. The routes were too slow developing and Kendrick Bourne might have run the wrong route. Team sack.
2-17-IND 17 (1:36) (Shotgun) D.Maye pass short right to D.Douglas to IND 13 for 4 yards (Z.Franklin)
Maye had Douglas earlier and caused his own hurry by that delay in throwing the checkdown, not to mention he throws it low and behind Douglas. If the ball is thrown early, Douglas has a chance to make a player or two miss and give the team a real shot at converting the touchdown.
Second half
2-6-IND 36 (3:38) (Shotgun) D.Maye pass incomplete short right to K.Boutte.
In-cut was wide open and Maye just missed the throw.
1-10-IND 24 (2:58) (Shotgun) D.Maye scrambles right guard to IND 17 for 7 yards (E.Speed).
Not sure he was every going to have anything other than Stevenson in the right flat, but Henry had a 1-on-1 matchup down the field. This was the one time all game where he never gave the play a chance and the pocket was clean. Needs to hang with this play.
2-3-IND 7 (1:01) (Shotgun) D.Maye pass short middle intended for H.Henry INTERCEPTED by J.Blackmon (Z.Franklin) at IND 0. J.Blackmon to IND 17 for 17 yards (D.Jacobs).
Maye's throw toward the defender instead of away from him made this catch by Henry infinitely more difficult than it needed to be. If he puts it on Henry's left shoulder, it's an easy touchdown. Not a horrible throw, but it either needs to be on him or on his left shoulder.
3-11-NE 47 (6:43) (Shotgun) D.Maye sacked at NE 45 for -2 yards (N.Cross).
The last play of the game, really, for the Patriots after the Gonzalez interception. Colts send five but it's initially blocked up. Maye is locked onto Boutte on the out but wisely doesn't throw it with the corner charging hard. However, Bourne is open and an anticipation throw converts this third down. This is a game-deciding play that needs to be made. Let it rip.
Maye's first half as I graded the film:
Here are the positional ratings against the Colts:
OFFENSE
Quarterback (4.5 out of 5)
Really good stuff from Maye in this game. All very positive. This was his second-highest game in terms of Throwing Success Rate of the season (63.3%). Only the Rams game was higher (64.1%). The next-highest game was the Texans at 48.5% and his season average is 48% (league average is 47.4%). What do the Rams and Colts have in common? Both play a lot of zone coverage. Colts are the highest zone percentage in the league, and the Rams are 5th. Helps to explain that they are 23rd (Colts) and 26th (Rams) in Throw EPA allowed per game. The next four games against the Cardinals (13th in pass defense DVOA), Bills twice (9th) and Chargers (5th) will be a stiffer test for Maye and a great barometer for where he is heading into 2025.
Running backs (2.5 out of 5)
If this was just Stevenson, it would have been a zero because he left gobs of yards on the field as he continues to run without much confidence or vision. If it was just Antonio Gibson, the grade would have been a 5 because he was outstanding in his 17 snaps. Why is Stevenson getting 39 more snaps? And can the Patriots start using Gibson more in the pass game? He would have helped in the red zone in this game in a James White role.
Receivers (2.5 out of 5)
The tight ends were great in this game, both with the pass and run blocking, and Kayshon Boutte had a big YAC play and great catch on the two-pointer, but that was about it. Not using Gibson and Demario Douglas underneath the zone in this game more was puzzling. Maybe someone should have showed Van Pelt the film from Super Bowl LI when White had 14 catches on 16 targets for 110 yards and a touchdown against a similar scheme (Edelman and Amendola combined for 13 for 165 and a TD ... slot guys like Douglas).
Offensive line (4 out of 5)
I actually thought the line, outside of Layden Robinson, was good in this game. If Stevenson didn't leave yards on the field, you could have been talking a 250-yard rushing day. Just 5 of the 14 pressures were on the line, and four came from Robinson. ... The rest came from the team (scheme accounted for three free defenders and there were three more coverage pressures) and Maye (three). ... Ben Brown and Mike Onwenu stood out in the run game but all of them had their moments. This was a tough matchup for the Patriots but they held their own. ... Robinson had some tough matchups and fared about as well as you would think, but I'm not sure where Jerod Mayo got his "best game" stuff. Robinson played much better at the Jets in Week 3 (1.5 pressures) and 49ers (2.5). This was similar to the Seattle game (4.5), and that wasn't good.
DEFENSE
Defensive line (2 out of 5)
Patriots seemed to go into this game deathly afraid of Anthony Richardson's running ability so they played passive against the run. That led to some big-time issues as nine of the team's 13 blown gaps/edge in the run game came in the first half. Patriots got more aggressive in the second half, and that paid off. ... Patriots also didn't get much pressure until the second half, when Keion White (team-high four pressures - three in the second half) became more of a factor. ... PFF game Richardson a 95.6 grade against the Patriots' seven blitzes (5 of 7 with 2 big-time throws).
Linebackers (2 out of 5)
Great teamwork by Jahlani Tavai (much-improved zone drops over the Miami game) and Christian Eliss on the interception (and Gonzalez for knocking the receiver down), but that's about it as both linebackers were swallowed up in the run game. On the bust touchdown, Tavai looked back at Elliss indicating to me that one was supposed to blitz and the other was supposed to take Jonathan Taylor. That's the second time that has happened this season.
Secondary (2.5 out of 5)
More of a mixed bag. Both interceptions for the Patriots were thanks to Richardson being late delivering the ball, but still good plays. Gonzalez had a couple issues in the run game but is playing really well in man coverage, same with Alex Austin and Marcus Jones. ... Jabrill Peppers wanted Jonathan Jones to switch with him on the bust TD. I've never seen more busts against a Patriots defense than this year. They used to have 1 to 3 a year. Now it's 1 to 3 a game. And the coaches are the same! ... Kyle Dugger had another brutal game and got bailed out getting beat deep on a drop late. Peppers should have helped him more by hitting Alec Pierce on the game-tying touchdown.
THREE UP
RB Antonio Gibson: He's by far the best back right now and running with confidence and vision. Time for him to get more touches - a lot more.
QB Drake Maye: Highest-graded QB game since 2021. Just needs to watch the pressure and his pocket drifts.
TE Austin Hooper: Has the key block on Stevenson's 38-yard run, another plus run block and two terrific catches for the TD and a third-down conversion.
THREE DOWN
LG Layden Robinson: Going through a position switch and did a solid job in a tough matchup, but 10 minus plays are 10 minus plays.
RB Rhamondre Stevenson: In his first eight games, Stevenson was responsible for 1 stuffed run and had a plus/minus of 40.5/14. In the last three, he has 8 stuffs and is 13/18. Injured or just lost confidence?
S Kyle Dugger: In three seasons with Devin McCourty as a teammate, Dugger's average PFF grade was 70.7 with a high of 78.4 in 2022 (McCourty's final season). Since then, his average grade is 55.6 with a career-low of 49.4 so far this season. Makes you wonder...