Bedard: After rightfully using training wheels for Maye's first start, time for Van Pelt to get creative vs. Jaguars

We can argue all we want about Drake Maye's effectiveness in his debut against the Texans — no, I haven't changed my mind, and after talking to some NFL sources and hearing the likes of Greg Cosell and Chris Simms after they watched the film, I feel even very secure in my assessment of that one game (I said nothing about his play going forward; I grade them one game at a time) — but that's pretty pointless. The game was a week ago, and the Patriots have 11 more games, starting with Sunday's tilt in London against the Jaguars.

I'm hopeful we can all agree on this point: Alex Van Pelt needs to get more creative, specifically in this must-win game for both teams, if people don't want to get fired (Doug Pederson) or their "program" to go further off the rails (Jerod Mayo). 

In Van Pelt's defense, the Texans game was Maye's first start, the line was shuffled (again) and the Texans are pretty fast on defense. I did not expect them to let Drake cook after taking him out of the oven earlier than anyone expected. Need to bring along young QBs very slowly. You don't want to just throw them into the deep end. And Van Pelt admitted that was part of the plan — no, not that plan, which got tossed in the garbage at 1-4.

"Just getting him comfortable in his first start was most important for us," Van Pelt told reporters this week.

But, as the OC is wont to do, even Van Pelt seemed to take it to extremes with not one designed run for Maye. Most playcallers would have put that in the opening script, if not opening drive, just to get the kid going. But, that's not in Van Pelt's bag.

Heading into Sunday ... let me put it this way ... Van Pelt's bag better have a few more clubs (or 12) against the Jaguars, or that's going to be a long-ass flight home at 1-6.

This is the right opponent and the right time for Van Pelt to get a little freaky. Why? Let me try to explain.

The Jaguars, despite having talent (Arik Armstead, Josh Hines-Allen, Travon Walker, Ronald Darby, could have CB Tyson Campbell back) are kind of a mess on defense, especially against the pass. They rank 32nd overall in defensive DVOA and 32nd against the pass (16th against the run).

In defense of new coordinator Ryan Nielsen, Jacksonville's toughest games defensively have come against Tua Tagovailoa, Josh Allen, CJ Stroud and a peaking Caleb Williams (Joe Flacco putting up 34 in a Jaguars win was kind of the outlier in that group). Also not really Nielsen's fault: the Jaguars are a dumb team on film with costly penalties, blown assignments and busted coverages (and the offense isn't exactly precise either). That could stem from this being Nielsen's first season with the team and completely changing the scheme after Mike Caldwell was fired despite the Jags finishing 10th in defensive DVOA in 2023.

So the Patriots should be able to build on Maye's first start against a much worse defense that you hope doesn't suddenly start clicking in Week 7 (the film says that is very unlikely to happen).

The one problem in banking on a Patriots offensive explosion is the team does not have the same creativity as the other teams who have handed Jacksonville losses, and that's where Van Pelt has to enter the equation this week.

The common trait those previous offenses have? They all are very creative either out of the wide zone scheme and/or with motion. Miami, Houston and Chicago all feature coordinators with a strong lineage to Kyle Shanahan and/or Sean McVay. The Bills, under OC Joe Brady, were doing some of the most creative motion plays this side of Shanahan early in the season.

The problem is, the Patriots don't do either under Van Pelt.

Well, that's not exactly fair. Van Pelt tried desperately to install the wide zone and boot action that the three Shanahan teams executed well against Jacksonville (the Bears and Shane Waldron were on point last week). The Patriots just couldn't do it due to the type of linemen they have, all the changes on the line, and the fact that Rhamondre Stevenson wants to run downhill. So Van Pelt has largely junked that, although we did see a few boots last week.

That scheme and the Bills' motion work well against the Jaguars because they play with very little discipline and are over-aggressive in trying to make plays, which makes things even worse. I mean, look at the Bears' runs of 10+ yards last week:

A lot of open space.

And pass plays with intermediate air yards, with some of the same issues:

Not surprisingly, Nielsen said this week the Jaguars have just been preaching playing tough, playing together and executing.

"Love how we started last week. Two three and outs. Guys were playing fast," he said. "But then some of the things started showing up that you don't want to show up. The third drive in the game, there's some plays that happened that if we just would have been in the right place and executed our job, maybe a little bit different outcome. So that's where we're just staying the course with the guys. And then, you know, throughout the season, you've seen games that we've had stretches, we've gotten off the field in six straight drives in some games and things like that, and so that's what we're focusing on. 'Guys, we can do this. We've done this before. Now, let's just put a whole football game together, right?'

"We have (tried to do too much). It was the meeting on Tuesday. It's play hard, and then play together. And the play together part is the execution. And then just do your job, and that's execution to us, doing your job. Executing your job is being a great teammate. So if I'm supposed to be in the B gap, the guy in the C gap and the A gap can do his job that's being a great teammate and not jumping out of my gap to do his job and I'm going to stay in my gap to do my job. Same thing in coverage, and in all aspects of the game. So that's our focus on playing hard and playing together. And part of that is the execution part is just doing our job."

This is where the Patriots' issue lies in this game: they don't really have the ability, outside of a few plays here and there, of making a team like the Jaguars bust. The Bears exploited the Jaguars because they got them flowing side to side with their zone scheme and a good offensive line. The Patriots have neither.

So how can the Patriots approximate that?

By using Maye's legs, and throwing in some trick plays (hey, it's now or never). The Patriots can get the Jaguars to flow by breaking out the RPO in this game, and playing into Maye's athletic ability. Perhaps that's why they held it back last week. If I were Van Pelt, I would rip off the Bears' second run with Williams on that film, where they pulled two guards and Williams broke free. I would also rip off the second pass where the Bears had orbit motion, faked two different screens and that led to TE Cole Kmet being wide open because the Jaguars are not bright.

It's also time to break out a couple of true trick plays. I would not mind seeing Maye getting a HB or WR option pass (yeah, I don't really care about the knee, he's 22 years old and strong). Maybe some sort of flea flicker?

If Van Pelt doesn't get creative in this game, if he just plods ahead with his bad spacing, poor route concepts and rudimentary quick games we've seen so far, the Patriots are going to be on the losing side for the sixth-straight game, and suffer the embarrassment of losing to one of the worst (but talented) teams in the league.

It's time for AVP to show us something this week, or the drumbeat for a new playcaller is going to get a lot louder.

NICKEL PACKAGE

1. Speaking of Van Pelt, he was asked this week about whether he has helped the tackles enough. His response?

"It definitely is challenging understanding that you got to drive back and give those guys help," he said. "I mean, the premier pass rushers are on the edge, I don't know if we'll see two better than last week. These guys this week are really good too. So everybody has edge rushers. As we continue to grow at the tackle position, you know, we can take some of that help off as they seem to ... and they're protecting well. But there are courses and times in that game where, 'Hey, you guys got to protect,' because we might be in two-minute mode. We can't always help. So there might be a handful of six, eight plays around the game that they're not going to get help, and that's when they have to be at their best."

Six to eight times they're not going to get help?!

I went back and watched the following pass-heavy situations: 3rd and medium (3-6), 3rd and long, and 2nd and long. There were 15 of those dropbacks (one play, a quick game to Kendrick Bourne was eliminated). The tackles received no help on nine of those dropbacks (60 percent), one got help three times (20 percent) and both tackles were helped three times (20 percent). 

2. I wouldn't sleep on the Jaguars ability to make plays in this game. Even if RB Travis Etienne can't go, Tank Bigsby is really good and powerful, and rookie WR Brian Thomas was one of my faves in this draft class. Trevor Lawrence will dial up some really nice throws, and the scheme by Doug Pederson will pop plays (and he has a good history against this Patriots scheme). The problem has been, the Jaguars just can't get it together. Watch these four deep shots:

The first play should be a touchdown but Lawrence underthrows it badly (I think there's something wrong with his throwing shoulder, a shotput motion showed up a few times). The second is a touchdown to the annually overrated Gabe Davis. The third play is a dynamite route concept to Christian Kirk against Cover 2 (which the Patriots run a lot), but Kirk appears to run the wrong route, which he is prone to do. The fourth is a dime touchdown pass by Lawerence (similar to the Boutte play last week) that Davis drops.

All four of those plays were there, but this is the state of the Jags on both sides of the ball.

3. Good on Christian Barmore for this. Nobody's perfect, and accountability matters.

4. Michael Lombardi said this week (when he wasn't bashing the Patriots) that Joshua Uche is available for a fifth-round pick. I wonder if the Patriots hold him out of this game to make sure he's healthy for the Tuesday, Nov. 5 deadline at 4 p.m. Uche's a perfect trade candidate on a cheap one-year deal, and he really doesn't have a huge role here, and he's been a discipline issue on the field. Teams love pass rushers. Detroit needs one now. 

Other players I'd listen on: Tyquan Thornton, Kendrick Bourne, KJ Osborn, Austin Hooper, Jacoby Brissett and Jonathan Jones. Just play all the kids at WR, Jaheim Bell, sign a veteran QB with Joe Milton as backup, and figure it out at cornerback.

5. BEDARD'S PICK

Season: 3-2-1 spread, 4-2 straight up.
Line: Jaguars -6, 42.5 o/u.

I'm pretty shocked the Jaguars opened as a 4.5-point favorite, and it has been pushed up to 6. What do these people know that we don't? Have they watched the Jaguars?

Both of these teams are a mess in their own special way. I would have more confidence in the Patriots with Maye but the plan with the offense I laid out ... I just don't think there's much chance Van Pelt does that. So it's going to come down to talent vs. talent, and the Jaguars have more. Plus, Doug Pederson and others from the Andy Reid tree kind of know how to handle the Patriots' defense - and that was when New England could be counted on to stop the run with regularity. I think Dougie is going to be in his bag, and AVP will not. But I'm praying I'll be surprised for once.

Jaguars 24, Patriots 20.