FOXBOROUGH — The Patriots start playing for keeps this morning, as they kick off 2024 training camp.
Well, sort of.
Under the current CBA, each NFL team has to undergo a five-day acclimation process. Day 1, which was Tuesday, is just physicals and any on-field work can't involve footballs. Days 2-3, which begin today, are only in helmets and t-shirts but can be at full speed. Days 4-5, Friday and Sunday, can introduce shells. Saturday is the mandatory off day this year, and then teams can begin padded practices.
In other words, don't read too much into this first week. The real competition starts on Monday.
With that in mind, here are the top competitions heading into camp, a prediction on who will win and why from both me and Giardi, and our bold predictions for the entirety of camp.
2023 version ... some hits (Pop Douglas) and misses (Pierre Strong)
2022 version ... some hits (Jack Jones, Malcolm Butler being cut, saying to cut Isaiah Wynn) and misses (Jahlani Tavai, Yodny Cajuste).
FIFTH/SIXTH RECEIVER
Contenders: Jaelan Reagor, Kayshon Boutte, Juju Smith-Schuster, Tyquan Thornton.
Favorites: Reagor, Boutte.
Dark horses: Smith-Schuster, Thornton
Heat is on: Smith-Schuster, Thornton.
Skinny: In my mind, Demario Douglas, Ja'Lynn Polk, K.J. Osborn and Javon Baker are all locks. ... We're going to assume that Kendrick Bourne is going to start the season on the PUP list, but we'll have to see how that goes (he was placed on PUP Tuesday). ... Reagor showed well at the end of last season, and is dynamic on kickoff returns. ... Boutte could still get NFL discipline now that his charges have been dropped, but he showed well in the spring. ... Smith-Schuster says he's much healthier and should be allowed to show what he can do. Maybe a vet can help this group, but he better be good or the reps should go to someone younger. ... Thornton needs to stay on the field and catch the ball. ... Osborn also needs to improve his pass-catching ability.
Who wins the jobs?
BEDARD: I like Reagor and Boutte. Reagor showed really well in the spring and he could end up being the KO returner under the new rules. Boutte has made steady progress. Where the Patriots are, they need to be giving the benefit of the doubt to younger players. Smith-Schuster should be on a more competitive team. Thornton was just not a great pick.
GIARDI: Best case scenario is Thornton and Boutte, but neither player has proven a damn thing in this league yet. Reagor is what he is, but his special teams value is what allows him to stick. That leaves Thornton and Boutte, and I'm going to say the former LSU product edges out the failed second-round pick.
FOURTH, FIFTH AND SIXTH CORNERBACK
Contenders: Alex Austin, Isaiah Bolden, Marcellas Dial, Marco Wilson, Shaun Wade, Mikey Victor, Azizi Hearn, Kaleb Ford-Dement.
Favorites: Austin, Bolden, Dial.
Dark horse: Wilson.
Heat is on: Wade.
Skinny: Austin has played well back to the end of last season. Mayo talked up Bolden and how fast he is. Dial is a draft pick who showed well in the spring. ... Wilson is a veteran via the Cardinals. The former 2021 fourth-round pick struggled last year in the new defense of coordinator Nick Rallis. At the time of his release in December, Wilson had not played a defensive snap for four straight games after starting the first 11 games of the season. After a 2022 season in which Wilson gave up a passer rating against of only 77.1 according to Pro Football Reference, Wilson's passer rating against jumped to 136.7 and he was allowing 15.5 yards a completion. ... Wade was acquired by the Patriots in a trade with Baltimore on August 26, 2021 in exchange for a 2022 seventh-round draft pick and a 2023 fifth-round draft pick ... Originally drafted by Baltimore in the fifth round (160th overall) of the 2021 NFL Draft. Hasn't played very much, and he's usually struggled in games. But he shows well in practice.
Who wins the jobs?
BEDARD: I think Austin, Bolden and Dial all stick because they have shown the most promise. But there is certainly room for some others to jump up from obscurity. Right now, Austin is the favorite for CB3 but Bolden has much to prove aside from special teams. Dial isn't guaranteed anything and other NFL teams think he's just a boundary corner.
GIARDI: I'm taking Austin, Bolden, and Wilson in this fight. Dial ends up on the practice squad. Austin will need to maintain the trajectory he's been on since late last year, and Bolden has promise with his size and special teams capabilities. Wilson showed something in Arizona, and I trust the Pats in the CB evaluations.
FIVE BOLD PREDICTIONS
BEDARD 1. Patriots find common contractual ground with Matthew Judon and Davon Godchaux.
When you're a new GM and head coach, you don't want to flop in your first season. This is not the time to make a stand. The Patriots have the cap space and money, and the players know it. The Patriots stand a much better chance to compete this season with both players than without.
GIARDI 1. Ditto.
I don't know if this qualifies as bold if Bedard gets to go first, but they guarantee most, if not all, of Godchaux's contract to at least placate the big fella. As for Judon, I take him at his word that he's not going to do the hold-in thing, and as a result, that good behavior is rewarded with an extra year tacked on to his current deal before the summer is through.
BEDARD 2. Patriots do not make a deal for a No. 1 receiver.
They've been on everybody and that will continue. Calvin Ridley was too much money for a 2 at best. They would have paid through the nose with picks and cash on Brandon Aiyuk but the Niners weren't listening and won't. The Bengals will make Tee Higgins play out his contract year. Maybe the Patriots find someone at the trade deadline, but that will be too little, too late for this season. But they will get a jump on 2025.
GIARDI 2. Josh Uche gets double-digit sacks.
I can't quit you, Josh. He's highly motivated, and we know he's capable of big sack numbers if a) he's healthy and b) Judon is on the field. Both of those things will happen.
BEDARD 3. Ja'Lynn Polk looks like a complete stud and immediate starter.
If you've been reading these parts, you know how I feel about him. The dude is a suped-up Jakobi Meyers and will soon be making sweet music with Drake Maye.
GIARDI 3. Polk is good.
In this space, I'll remind you I was driving the Polk train this winter and spring before the Pats drafted him (and before Bedard put down his flag). Polk has more on-field talent than his timed and measured stats indicate, and the former University of Washington star has the right demeanor to handle the up-and-down nature of a rookie season.
BEDARD 4. Drake Maye has his moments, but he can't supplant Jacoby Brissett.
Looking forward to seeing Maye pull off some ridiculous plays on the practice field and preseason, but that does not mean he's ready to start an NFL game for a completely unknown offense - coaches and players. The Patriots don't need Maye being a test tube baby. Need to wait at least Week 5.
GIARDI 4. Someone on sports talk radio will clamor for Joe Milton to start.
Milton will do something in practice and then again in a preseason game to get some fans and talking head dopes to get this crap stirred up. It's a lock. Vegas is taking it off the board.
Editor's Note: It will be Joe Murray. I can hear it now ... "Joe, Joe Milton! Do you think you're in this QB competition?! Yes sir!" Shoot me now. Again.
BEDARD 5. Juju Smith-Schuster gets traded.
Smith-Schuster will look a lot better physically, but he's still not the right guy for these Patriots. A contending team somewhere will suffer a big injury and Smith-Schuster will be the perfect stopgap for them, and it will save the Patriots some cap space (as opposed to a straight release).
GIARDI 5. Kyle Dugger takes a step forward.
Belichick wouldn't have re-signed him, but this regime did. With that uncertainty in the rearview, the physical safety reverts more to 2022-23 form than we saw last year.
