With an entirely new regime at head coach and in the front office, this initial offering is even more of a guess than normal. We have very little idea how Eliot Wolf is going to approach things in conjunction with Jerod Mayo. Are they going to differ to youth with a long-term rebuild in mind, or are they simply going to go with the best players that give them the best chance to win tomorrow? Will they go with more players on offense to search for a boost on that side?
The Packer Way is, when in doubt, go with younger and cheaper without fear of playing the kids. The goal is to draft and develop, and save your big money for when the team is closer to contention.
With that in mind, here is my initial 53-man roster for the Patriots entering camp. Keep in mind that with the practice squad and elevation rules, you can basically have a 56-man roster for at least the first few weeks if you can get some valuable veterans on your taxi squad. I see the Patriots doing that at quarterback, at the very least, whether that's Bailey Zappe or (preferably) a veteran cut loose elsewhere with a deep knowledge/understanding of Alex Van Pelt's system.
One thing I loved: not having to pencil in seven special teams players, with four being players with little ability to contribute to offense or defense. Right now, I only have one (Brenden Schooler).
On my initial run-through, I ended up with 55 players - 24 on offense, 27 on defense. Here are the last two I took out:
CB Marco Wilson: He got me down to six cornerbacks, but that is definitely up for debate. It depends greatly on Marcus Jones. Is he on the team? Can he play cornerback? Could he play at safety? Sort of a make-or-break year for Jones. If he falters, Wilson is next man up for now.
ED Oshane Ximines: Got a lot of run in the spring with some absences and he certainly impressed, so he was really the last one out. If he, and possibly others, impress in camp, that could make Matthew Judon very expendable to a contending team. It would be different if the Patriots were close to contention, but that's likely a year away. If Keion White is ready for a full-time role, and it feels that way, Judon could be out and a player like Ximines could stick.
Here's each side of the ball and special teams, starting with offense:
Positional thoughts
Quarterback: It's certainly possible Joe Milton plays his way off the roster, but Wolf drafted him for a reason - even if it was late - and with an endgame in mind. As of right now, he is too rare a talent to cast aside. I don't think he'll make it to the practice squad, or he could easily decide someplace else (like the Ravens) might be a better fit for his talent. Milton stays for now. ... There has to be a veteran brought in to at least be the emergency third quarterback every week (allowed now). If Jacoby Brissett goes down in a game, Drake Maye can finish the game, and then they can assess whether Maye or the vet should start the next game.
Running back: This is a complete guess as to who the third back will be. Deshaun Fenwick had a hamstring issue so we didn't see much of him, but the Patriots like him. The practice squad will have at least two running backs and it would be nice if one was Kevin Harris.
Receiver: Will be the most interesting position of camp, along with the offensive line. I assume Javon Baker sticks, but that's not assured. The rest after him is a complete toss-up. Kayshon Boutte could very well be suspended at some point but I was told today that there has been no movement on his case since his January arrest on felony gambling charges.
Yes, I have Juju Smith-Schuster and Tyquan Thornton out. Time to get younger, and time to go with others who can stay on the field.
Tight end: No real surprise here, but I do like the other three and it would not be a surprise if the Patriots kept another for special team purposes.
Tackle: Right now I have Mike Onwenu as a guard and his G/T versatility could make it easier to cut a fourth tackle like Vederian Lowe and go with another interior player who can play center (Jake Andrews, Atonio Mafi).
Guard/center: As it stands, I have the Patriots a little light at center but I think Leverett can do it in a pinch. We barely saw Jake Andrews in the spring so I have no frame of reference for him, other than he struggled at guard last year.
Edge/end: Pretty much chalk like the rest of the veteran defense but I think Matthew Judon's future here is very much in doubt. He'd be a perfect trade candidate for a contender who gets to the end of camp and thinks their pass rush isn't good enough or has an injury. Love Judon and what he's done here, but he's not needed this year for where this team is at.
Defensive tackle: Roberts, Pharms and Hill are in a three-way battle for one spot.
Linebacker: I think it would take a lot or another injury for someone to displace McMillan. Patriots coaches have always loved him, but he has had a bad run of injuries at the worst times.
Cornerback: Looks like Wilson, Wade and Dial are in a battle for one or two spots. I liked what I saw out of the rookie this offseason. Sticky coverage.
Safety: Do they go down to four? Certainly possible and Bledsoe would probably be the odd man out.
Kicker: Slye holds the edge after the offseason, but the competition is on come camp. Ryland needs to show vast improvement.
